Dow Tumbles Triple Digits

This is the top story of Yahoo Finance at this moment and Dow has dropped about 140 points (1.3%) after an hour of trading.



I still maintained that Dow is at its wave iv of its major wave (3), and wave iv is likely to be completed by early December. Theoretically wave iv should not go lower than the top of wave i, i.e. 10,700. The next wave after wave iv is wave v. That will be the the last wave if there is no extension of waves for major wave (3).

Korean artillery conflict and European debt problems at this stage provided reasons for the wave iv correction. But I won't be surprised if the same events at a more serious stage later become the catalyst for the starting of mega wave C's plunge.

Tak Nak

I don't know why, whenever I see the above poster, the massage I received is as shown below

You accept only good condition cigarette from your friends

This signboard along the road has confused me during the last General Election.

I hope there is nothing wrong with my brain.

Rare Earth Elements

Remember the incident between two Japanese patrol boats and a Chinese fishing boat in waters off the Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. The Chinese boat Captain was held captive by Japan’s Coast Guard but was released immediately when China instituted an export ban on shipments of rare earth oxides to Japan.

What is this rare earth oxides ?



As defined by International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, rare earth elements or rare earth metals are a collection of seventeen chemical elements in the periodic table as shown below.

Periodic Table

Early of the week, the U.S. Geological Survey released its 2010 strategic advisory to the US government. The main gist of the whole report was:

Rare Earth Elements are a TOP PRIORITY for national security.

Without reliable source of supply, fighter planes, guided missiles, and radar installations all will be grounded.

Rare earth are required for the production of modern technological devices that include iPods, cell phone, computers, hybrid electric motor (Toyota Prius), optical-fiber, wind power turbine, guided missile, rare earth magnets, cathode-ray tube (TV), microwave resonator ........... and many more.

Looking at the chart below, In year 2000, China has already captured 90% of the rare earth oxides market. It was reported recently that 95% of the world rare earth supply came from China.


I guess this is the strongest weapon China has in any negotiation with Japan or the USA. That is why the Chinese fishing boat captain was released immediately.

Click on Rare Earth Element from Wikipedia for more information.

The Year of Tiger - 1950

That was the year I was born, 1950. But because I was born in January, in lunar calendar that was December 1949, the year of Ox. I have a better look










than my other primary and lower secondary schoolmates

In those days, most children looked dumb

It wasn’t our fault, it was simply lack of exposure.

In 1950s, the only electrical item in your house was a 40 watt light bulb.

Computer and television were still in the twilight zone. Some families might have radios, really big radio, especially when you were small.

Everything looked big including the charcoal iron used by my mother.


Money was extra big then , I paid 5 cents for my first small bowl of laksa in my school canteen. With some Towfu Pok the price was 10 cents.




A big ice ball with multi colour syrups that you need to hold with both hands, cost only 5 cents.

Almost everybody went to school by bicycle. A new bicycle cost about $60.00. Payment by installment was $6.00 a month for 12 months.

we have many friends, good friends. We have more friends when we entered secondary school and then university.

Then started working and then dating

Have a family
and

Time really flies when you have childrens

and

Suddenly

To all my tiger and tigress friends, Happy 60^th Birthday.

Dow - Mini wave a of wave iv completed

Dow put on 1.5% to close at 11,181, that should mark the end of mini wave a of the wave iv. If it is forming a 'flat', it is likely that mini wave b will take one week and mini wave c will take another week before the start of the last up-trend v that should last at least one month.

Dow - The status of the current bear market rebound

I am still talking about the major wave b of the mega wave 6 and the possible major 'head and shoulders' formation as shown in the 110-year chart above.


For the major wave b since the 6,547 low in March 2009, Dow so far has completed wave (1) and (2) and is in the process of completing its wave (3) to complete the major rebound wave b before the next plunge in 2011 to complete the major wave c, a very bearish view.

Wave (3) normally has 5 mini waves unless its is extended. So far it has completed its mini wave i, ii and iii. Tuesday long red candlestick has confirmed the completion of mini wave iii. Since mini wave ii is a simple zig-zag pattern, I would like to assume that mini wave iv will be a flat a-b-c as shown above.

From the Bull Camp

Refer to the chart below

(a) The bulls believed that March 2009 low of 6,547 is the end of the bear market.
(b) Dow so far has completed major wave (1) and (2) of the bull run.
(c) Dow is currently in major wave (3)
(d) So far wave i and ii of major wave (3) have been completed.
(e) Dow has just completed wave 1/iii and is in the process of completing its wave 2/iii
(f) The next wave is the wonderful wave 3/iii, it is going to be very dynamic with very high volume as shown below.



This hypothesis may be possible. In stock, many things are possible, but personally I feel that this possibility is very slim, I am a long-term bear.


I found this video from YouTube explaining the $600 billion Quantitative Easing No. 2 of Bernanke

Warren Buffett's letter on Quantitative Easing No. 1

News from Reuters on Wednesday, Nov 17, 2010.

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett praised the U.S. government's efforts to bail out the economy during the financial crisis two years ago, preventing an economic collapse.

In a letter published by the New York Times, Buffett wrote that all corporate America's dominoes were lined up and were ready to topple at lightning speed in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008.

"My own company, Berkshire Hathaway, might have been the last to fall, but that distinction provided little solace," Buffett, nicknamed the Oracle of Omaha, said.

He said the U.S. government's decision to buy up assets that many investors considered to be toxic had helped pull back the economy from the brink of collapse.

Dow - Wave iv is being formed

This is the headline on Yahoo Finance. Still the same old problems, inflation and debts. Dow dropped about 100 points from 11,201 to 11,100 after half-hour of trading. If this drop is maintained until the close, it is confirmed that the wave count for Dow is as shown below. Wave iii has been formed. Wave iv may be less than 7% that I have mentioned earlier at the expense of a longer duration for a side way movement.



Shanghai SSEC index dropped 5% last Friday, remained side way on Monday and it dropped another 4% at the close today. My wave count for SSEC is as shown below. Same as Dow, its wave iii of major wave B has been completed.



SSEC is currently trying to complete its wave iv.


Hang Seng Index is quite similar to that of SSEC.



One possible wave count is as shown below pending confirmation on further price development.