Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The Alsace Wine Route, France

Located near the Western border of Germany, Alsace wine route stretches over 170 km of vineyards with charming picturesque villages and small towns.

We stopped at Kientzheim to look for some good wine.

Alsace produces many types of wine - sweet fruity wine, dry wine, light wine, dessert wine  ................

Wine tasting is fun and the best part is - it is free, but don't forget to buy a bottle or two before leaving. The price range of wine can vary from about 7 euro to more than 50 euro.

We bought a few bottles of Alsace famous wine, made from aromatic grapes - The highly aromatic Gewurztraminer Wine.

It is soooo good and it is sweet with an indescribable fragrance - it is love at first taste.

Crystal clear.

The pinkish aromatic Gewurztraminer grapes

A highly recommended route to travel and don't forget to get a bottle of Alsace famous wine.



Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Perdana Petroleum Bhd

My friend called me over the weekend and ask me to have a look at Perdana Petroleum Bhd from technical aspect.

I should say Perdana was very well behaved from its 2007 peak of Rm4.60 to its May 2012 low of Rm0.48. It has form a zig-zag A-B-C corrective wave with a 5 waves A, a 3 waves B and another 5 waves C.

Its OBV is very impressive. There is divergence between its price and its OBV movement, indicating strong accumulation since December 2010. It is very rare to get a stock with such divergence between stock price and OBV.

After recording a low of Rm 0.48 in May this year, Perdana has been moving up steadily. Its has completed its sub-wave i & ii after breaking its upper trend-line. It is currently forming its sub-wave iii. Its next correction will be the sub-wave iv. Its next resistance is the Rm 1.16 level of its upper channel line. Perdana must break out of its down-trend channel to continue with its bull run.

However, if it failed to break the Rm 1.16 trend line, it is likely that its downtrend since its 2007's peak is not yet over. A likely wave count is as shown below, a 1-2-3-4-5 wave A formation.


Monday, October 29, 2012

All eyes on Hurricane Sandy

A potential 1 in 100 years storm is about to hit New York by Tuesday morning. President Obama has declared a state of emergency in New York.

The 130 km/hr hurricane is going to travel through a heavily populated corridor affecting about 50 million people. All train, bus and subway services in New York have been shut down since Sunday night. 7,200 flights have been cancelled so far. New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market will be closed on Monday and Tuesday. This is the first time since 1888 the exchange is closed for two consecutive days because of weather. The financial district of New York is part of a mandatory evacuation zone.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has categorized the destructive potential of Sandy to be 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. The force of the hurricane is expected to extend up to 300 km from the storm's center. More than 300mm of rainfall is expected and sea level is expected to rise by 3 meters with waves of up to 4 meters. A flood event exceeding 1 in 100 years is highly possible. Anticipated storm damages to the US economy may exceed $100 billions

Natural disasters of great magnitude always bring my thought to the Mayan 2012 Prophecy and the 2012 Galactic Alignment. (click for further reading)

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Bayswater Duck, London

Reading emails from my children is like sipping a cup of English breakfast tea, my favorite, comfortable, warm, sweet, relax, ........ Just received another email from my daughter.

' Hi parents,

Today's London is very London - all foggy and grey. Ho yau feel.
But, it is also rather depressing. The sun wakes up later and later and goes to bed earlier and earlier. .....................................................
................... Had breakfast with Jo Erh and then dinner with a friend. Ate duck at Gold Mine. ...'

Ate duck at Gold Mine, oh no!!!

She reminded me of the Bayswater Duck !!!!!

All my English breakfast tea has evaporated.

Courtesy of

Oh so juicy, so tasty, the aroma, oh ....
The best roast duck I have ever tasted.
A perfect 10 

Twice I went to London, twice I tasted the Bayswater duck and twice I forgot to take a photo of the duck :(

I have to search for the duck's photo from internet and I found this site 'theskinnybib' that has good photos and a better description of the roast duck.

To go to the Gold Mine Restaurant, take the Central Line (red) and get down at Queensway station.
Or take the District and Circle Lines (green and yellow) and get down at Bayswater station.

A 'must try' in London for all roast duck lovers.


Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Dow - Pay attention to the 13,000 level (Part 2)

If Dow can hold above the 13,000 level, the bottom of sub-wave iv, then the up-trend is not over yet. The current pullback is the wave 2/(v), one degree lower, as shown below.

However, if Dow were to go below the 13,000 level, it is very likely that the mega wave 1 that started in March 2009 has ended.  Mega wave 1 of the super wave VII as shown in the long-term chart below.

Projection for mega wave 2

If the 13,000 level cannot hold, the first stop for Dow is likely to be the 12,100 level, the bottom of wave (iv). Dow may have a rebound to form a 'head & shoulders' reversal pattern before its next journey to a major support level of 10,655, the bottom of major wave (4) for a 20% correction. This will tie in nicely with the 20% correction mentioned by Marc Faber recently.

Mega wave 2 can either have a 'shallow side way' A-B-C-D-E consolidation within the 20% margin as shown below.

Or it can go for a 'sharp and shorter duration' zig-zag A-B-C correction. The bottom for wave C can be anywhere between 10,655 and 6,547 levels with the 100% retracement to 6,547 being the worst that can happen.  

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Dow - Pay attention to the 13,000 level (Part 1)

Dow dropped 1.82% or 243 points to close Tuesday trading at 13,102 level. All it needs is a drop of another 100 plus points for Dow to go below the crucial 13,000 level. Once that happened, the probability is very very high that the mega wave 1 has ended. The 43 months bull run since March 2009's low of 6,547 has finally ended.

Theoretically the next major temporary support is the 12,100 level, the bottom of wave (iv), for Dow to take a breather before its next journey down south. Don't forget the worst case scenario is the 100% retracement to the starting point of 6,547 for mega wave 2.

However if Dow failed to break below the 13,000 level, that means the current pullback is only the first sub-wave of wave (v), the sub-wave 1/(v) as shown below. The big boys have decided that the game is not over yet.


Monday, October 22, 2012

Dutaland - Sub-wave (ii) has ended

Dutaland added 2 sens to 57.5 sens at the close today. As mentioned in my previous post on Dutaland dated 3rd October, 2012 , From its low in March 2009, Dutaland has completed its major wave (I) & (II) by June, 2012. Since then Dutaland proceeded to form its sub-wave (i)-(ii) as shown below.

The 48.5 sens low in September marked the end of sub-wave (ii). In the last two weeks, Dutaland has completed its mini-wave i & ii and it is forming its mini-wave iii of sub-wave (iii) currently.

If major wave (III) is of the same magnitude as major wave (I), it's price projection is 90 sens. However if major wave (III) is 1.618 times the magnitude of its major wave (I), major wave (III) can go as high as Rm1.16.

I hope I am right as I have accumulated a little bit of this stock. I shall keep my fingers crossed.

House of 1,000 Clocks, Black Forest, Germany



Sunday, October 21, 2012

Dow - When to throw in the towel

Courtesy of

On the 25th anniversary of 19th October, 1987's 'Black Monday', Dow dropped 205 points (1.52%) to 13,343 last Friday. "Due entirely to poor earnings reports", some analysts said.

25 years ago, on the same day, Dow dropped 508 points from 2246 to 1738 for a 22.61% drop. It was reported that the decline was caused mainly by program trading. Other possible reasons were overvaluation, illiquidity and market psychology.

The selling started in Asia ahead of the US market, with the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong dropping 11.12% from 3783 to 3362. On Tuesday morning, after the Dow's 22.61% drop, Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended its trading for 4 days. When trading resumed on the following Monday, Hang Seng dropped a staggering 33.34% from 3326 to 2241. It finally dropped to a low of 1894 by early December 1987 for a total decline of 52% within 2 months.

On that Monday, KLSE Composite index dropped 12.39% from 409 to 358. When I was wondering what causes the drop, one of my friend called me, "Hi, you know what, there is a crazy soldier started shooting in Chow Kit area". The news was true but that was not the real reason. On Tuesday, following Dow's 22.61% drop, the Composite index dropped another 15.65% to 302. The ultimate low was 223.92 on 7th December, 1987, a drop of 45% within 2 months.

The question now is, "Can the US market hold ?". If Dow can hold above its previous low of 13,326 level, everything still in order, Friday's 205 points drop is the mini-wave ii as shown below.

However, if Dow continues to drop below the lower trend-line and its previous low of 13,326, I have to switch back to my previous pessimistic wave count as shown below - The mega wave 1 uptrend since March 2009 has finally ended.

A third possible wave count is as shown below, if Dow can hold above 13,000 level.

Dow is forming its sub-wave vi.

So, the crucial level is the 13,000 mark where I will throw in the towel once it is broken.


Thursday, October 18, 2012

A small picturesque town in the Black Forest - Schiltach

Somewhere in the Black Forest

There is a small Kinzig Valley

with a river called Kinzig (of course) with crystal clear water and

Wow !!!! Am I in a story book ?

Schiltach - A small romantic town with half-timber framed houses

It has a 400 year-old town hall 

A river-front hotel with a warm homely ambient that serve 
wonderful breakfast and great foods  

To have dinner by the riverside in a picturesque town, wow!

Don't forget to order the roast pork, it is soooo good

A neo gothic avangelic church

The Schiltach River - oh, that is why the town is called Schiltach
Or is the river get its name from the town ? 
Which one come first ?
It really doesn't matter.


Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Defender of Human Rights

Dr. Kua Kia Soong

"Whether beholding the stars above the Scottish highlands with my loved ones or the stars above Kamunting detention camp, the oppressors can imprison our bodies but our spirit will always roam free…"

"When I told my friends in the UK that the government had commanded no less than six government agencies to investigate SUARAM to try all means to pin a charge on us, they were incredulous and asked if Malaysia was still a banana republic. ............"

Click on 'Kua Kia Soong' for more