Saturday, October 31, 2015

Weekly update

Dow (17,663)

Dow continues with its major wave (6). So far it has completed its sub-wave i-ii and mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii. Still a long way to go, if I am right.

Crude Oil WTI (US$46.40 a barrel)

The rebound in the last 3 days is too big a magnitude to be considered as mini wave 4. If C has only 3 waves, the only possibility is a 3-3-3-3-3 sub-wave ii. Hopefully this ii can be completed before December.

Oil & Gas related stocks

These stocks are expected to move in tandem. 

FBMKLCI (1,665)

I am more inclined to read KLCI as an overlapping 1-2-3-4-5 sub-wave i. Sub-wave ii is in progress. There is a possibility that KLCI will move in tandem with the crude oil prices as Malaysia is heavily depended on revenues from oil & gas.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.785)

My original reading for EG is less bullish by assuming that it is currently forming the sub-wave v of wave (iii) with 82 sens as the target for v, even though sub-wave iv has only one day of correction whereas sub-wave ii has 5 days of correction.

EG has a strong candlestick with record volume on Friday with the characteristic of 3 of iii of (iii) especially in the morning session when it reached a high of 82 sens. But it also can be the climax for v of (iii) before the next wave (iv) correction.

However if it can continue to run next week and go higher than 82 sens with high volume, then the following wave count is more likely.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm0.735)

LCTH is on course to complete its wave (v) of 3.

It is currently forming the mini wave 5 of iii with 78 sens as target.

Felda Global Ventures Hld Bhd (Rm1.78)

If Felda can continue with its last two days of up-trend with improved volume and go higher than Rm1.85 then it is forming its sub-wave iii currently. Volume has to be high as this is the iii of (iii).

If there is no volume and prices are fluctuating within narrow margin, then it can be wave (iv) in the making.

The worst that can happen is when it drops below its lower trend-line - run for your life. 

Really pity those Felda settlers that have taken the loan facilities provided to buy FGV at Rm4.45, the listing price.

Click 'Felda Settlers' for the report.

I guess, by next election in 2018, BN will need to do something if they want to win the votes of these Felda settlers.


Thursday, October 29, 2015

FBMKLCI - 3 possibilities

KLCI dropped 19 points today to close at 1666 level, another 8 points to go to reach the top of sub-wave i at 1658.

If this 1658 support level can hold, KLCI is either forming the mini wave 2 of sub-wave iii.

Or it is forming the wave a of sub-wave iv.

Another possibility is an overlapping 1-2-3-4-5 advancing wave to form the sub-wave i.

However, under this possibility of sub-wave ii correction, KLCI can start to rebound from its lower channel line at around 1658 level.

It also can go below 1658 level to the mini wave 4 level of 1600.

The worst that can happen is to have a 100% retracement to its starting point, which is the end of major wave 4 at 1532 level.


Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Dow - Up trend continues

Dow (17,581)

Dow added 108 points to 17,690 after 90 minutes of trading on Wednesday morning.

Dow appeared to be heading for 18,000 level to complete its mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii.

FBMKLCI (1,686)

KLCI is either forming its mini wave 2 corrective wave.

Or it is forming a higher degree a-b-c sub-wave iv, if the next run-up failed to go beyond 1,720 level.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.715)

EG put on a strong candlestick to close at 71.5 sens. I guess sub-wave v of wave (iii) has started.

Insas Bhd (Rm0.80)

Insas is forming the sub-wave iv of its wave (i) currently. This sub-wave iv may end any time.

Insas still has a long way to go to complete its major wave 5

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm0.72)

LCTH has a bullish engulfing candlestick today. Very likely this is the starting of its mini wave 5 of sub-wave iii.

Felda Global Ventures Hld Bhd (Rm1.71)

Some of my friends have been talking about this stock with both negative and positive opinions.

Technically (of course I can be wrong too), at a glance, it appeared to form a bullish (i)-(ii), i-ii pattern. I would say, if it could move above Rm1.82 with high volume within the next few days and could proceed to break Rm1.90, then it could be (i)-(ii), i-ii.

However, if it moves lower to below Rm1.65 in the next few days, then the rebound since early September can be just a technical rebound on its down-trend movement from above Rm5.00 since its listing in 2012.

Buy at your own risk and be prepared to cut lost if the direction is wrong.


Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Crude Oil - Near bottom

It appeared to me that Crude Oil is more likely to form a a-b-c wave ii than a a-b-c-d-e, 3-3-3-3-3 wave ii. I am expecting a small mini wave 4 rebound before another down to complete the ii at around US$42 level.


Monday, October 26, 2015

RGB International Bhd (Rm 0.165)

The most active stock today is RGB with 72 million shares changed hand. The volume represents 5.5% of the total number of RGB shares.

RGB is acknowledged as a premier manufacturer and supplier of electronic gaming machines and equipment to casinos, hotels and clubs with gaming licenses in Japan, Singapore, Macau, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines.

RGB chart is a bullish (1)-(2), 1-2 formation with a bullish OBV breakout.

If its August low of 10 sens marks the end of its major wave 2, it is currently forming its mini wave 3 of sub-wave v of wave (i) of major wave 3, still a long way to go.

For quarter ending 30th June 2015, its earning per share is 0.53 sen and net assets is 11 sens. Fundamentally not that good but with a weak Ringgit, its profit is expected improve.


Sunday, October 25, 2015

Weekly Update


Dow is forming its sub-wave iii.


If KLCI has completed its mini wave 2, it will start its mini wave iii next week.

If it has yet to complete its mini wave 2, then hopefully it can complete its mini wave b and c of mini wave 2 by next week.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm3.70)

The main question now is whether its current up-trend has ended?

If it has ended, then there is a possibility that it has completed its major wave 1.

But if its current up-trend can go beyond its upper trend line.

Then currently Inari is forming its sub-wave iii of wave (iii), it still has a long way to go to complete its sub-wave iii.

Insas Bhd (Rm0.815)

Insas has completed 5 mini waves so far, whether it will go for its 2-week sub-wave iv correction or whether it will move higher to form 9 mini waves, it depends whether Inari can break its upper trend-line.

One has to keep in mind that the major share holder, Thong Kok Khee, currently holding 34.04%, has to sell another 6 million shares in order to reduce his holding to below 33%.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.665)

EG gained 5.5 sens (+9%) on Friday with very high volume to form its sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3.

Its long term chart looked very bullish with (1)-(2), 1-2 formation.

Asian Pac Holdings Bhd (Rm0.21)

Another stock with a similar formation is Asiapac.

Hopefully once it has completed its sub-wave ii, it will start its sub-wave iii like EG.


Thursday, October 22, 2015

Markets run on possible European rate cut

Comments from ECB President Mario Draghi that the governing council had discussed lowering the deposit facility rate at today's policy meeting sent the German's DAX, French's CAC40 and other European markets higher by 2% to 2.5%.

Dow (17,489)

Dow responded by gaining 320 points (+1.87%) on Thursday. This strong candlestick is likely to be the minor wave iii of mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii.

Crude Oil WTI (US$45.55)

Crude oil can either move side way for an a-b-c-d-e sub-wave ii formation.

Or it can have a mini wave 4 rebound followed by a mini wave 5 down to complete the wave c of sub-wave ii.


Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Insas Vs Inari

I was asked the question, which one is better, Insas or Inari?

Looking at the following chart, since January 2013, the share price of Inari has gained 440% whereas Insas has improved by only 64%. In the last 2 years and 10 months, Inari has out performed Insas by 6.8 times. 

The above chart also showed that Inari and Insas moved in an opposite direction in the last 12 months. Why? I don't know.

Inari added 20 sens (+5.76%) today with high volume. It closed at Rm3.67.

Insas moved in tandem, gained 5.5 sens (+7.05%) also with high volume. Insas closed at 83.5 sens

If I compared their latest result for quarter ending 30th June 2015, Inari earned 5.57 sens a share with net assets at 74 sens a share; Insas earned 5.07 sens a share with net assets at Rm1.91. Insas at 83.5 sens looked better than Inari at Rm3.67.

Since Insas is holding 29.4% of Inari or about 214 millions share of Inari. If I divide 214 millions by the total number of Insas share of 663 millions. I get 0.322 share of Inari per every Insas share. And this 0.322 share of Inari alone at Rm3.67 is worth Rm1.18, which is 34.6 sens (41%) higher than the current share price of Insas at 83.5 sens. Don't forget about other business and assets of Insas.

Insas at this moment has reached the top of its resistance line. A breakout will further confirm that the major wave 5 is on.

Inari has another 33 sens to go to reach its upper trend-line to complete its wave (v).

Since Insas needs more time to complete its major wave 5, the major wave 1 of Inari may have 9 waves. 

If Inari doesn't stop at Rm4.00 and it moves above its upper resistance line, than it is on its sub-wave iii of wave (iii), can be very bullish with very high volume.

Well, anything can happen in the stock market.

Based on fundamental, Insas is better than Inari, but Inari's chart is more bullish with a strong up-trend momentum. But if Insas is trying to catch up with Inari and if Insas can close the gap between them, Insas may provide a better gain by percentage and it is on its major wave 5.

If Insas can complete its major wave 5 at Rm2.00, that is 140% gain. For Inari to gain 140%, it need to reach Rm8.80.

And if Inari can reach Rm8.80, the 0.322 share of Inari per every Insas share alone is worth Rm2.83. Mathematical logic sometime doesn't work in the stock market just like KLK and Batu Kawan. Sigh !!!