Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Dow crossed 13,000 level

Dow managed to stay above the 13,000 level at the close of Tuesday trading session.

My wave count remains the same, it is either 'Option 1', 3-wave B as shown above or 'Option 2', 7-wave B as shown below. Hopefully the magnitude of the next pullback can rule out one of them.

The stock markets were being supported by excess liquidity in the banking system, thanks to the Quantitative Easing programs. The European Central bank is doing what the US has done by pumping 489 billion euros into the banking system last December. The spare cash in the banking system was 511 billion euros last Friday.

Click 'The Most Profitable bank in the World' to read, an interesting article from Seeking Alpha.

In 2011, Federal Reserve made $79 billion from interest payment to the Government and Agency bonds that it bought using money that it has created (by printing) out of nothing. The more it prints to buy over the bonds from the banks, the more money it is going to make and at the same times it provides excess liquidity to the banking system. Is this a big bubble in the making ??? What is the catch ???


Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Penang Anti-Lynas Turned Ugly

With a white cap and a 1-Malaysia T-shirt,
one can do what many cannot do.

The Chief Minister of Penang, Lim Guan Eng has lodged a police report. Click 'Lim Guan Eng' for the full report.


Monday, February 27, 2012

Liverpool - 2012 Carling Cup Winner

After 6 long years

Since they last won the FA Cup in 2006, Liverpool managed to end its trophy drought by beating Cardiff 3-2 in a penalty shootout after a 2-2 draw in extra-time.

Six long miserable years for all the Liverpool supportes, including poor me.


Sunday, February 26, 2012

Stop Lynas

The crowd at MPK4 Field today, a really big crowd. Some said 3,000 but some claimed that there were 15,000 supporters of Himpunan Hijau 2.0 to protest against the setting up of a Lynas Rare Earth Processing Plant near Kuantan.

A nuclear scientist, Dr. Che Rosli Che Mat said, "The plant is safe. The project should proceed as long as the company adhered to strict safety standards and regulations to ensure that the health and safety of the residents were protected."

Click "Lynas plant is safe" for Dr. Rosli's comments.

I fully agreed with Dr. Che Rosli. The factory can be very safe with today's technology but on paper is one thing, actual implementation and operation is another thing. I think that is why Lynas is prepared to transport the material 4,000km to Malaysia for treatment instead of treating it next to its Mount Weld mine in Australia.

For a small plant at Mount Weld, Australian Government has imposed a 30km buffer zone but the Lynas Plant at Gebeng has two big towns and many fishing villages located within the 30km radius.

By nature, I never trust businessman when money is concerned and I always have doubt on the Malaysian authority's professionalism in monitoring and enforcement especially when it involved the rich and powerful.

Even at this construction stage, there were 'damped floor and cracked concrete wall' and 'withdrawal of AkzoNobel (international contractor) from the project' being reported by New York Times. On this issue AELB considers the plant is safe as long as there is Engineer's certification. If anything goes wrong, AELB will hold the Engineer responsible. Just wonder who is that 'Engineer'.

Safety comes with high cost if all the solid, liquid and gaseous waste from the plant were to be fully treated in accordance with international safety and health standard. If full compliance were to run into hundreds of million $ ultimately. I don't trust the businessman and honestly, I have no confidence in the Government's enforcement units in whatever they are doing.

And remember Murphy's Law - 'Anything that can go wrong will go wrong'. The price to pay is 'what is the worst that can happen? worth it or not?

At today's rally, some has called for

Trying to force the Australian Government to give a helping hand?

What does the Chart tell?

From the Lynas stock chart, the stock price moved in 5 waves from around A$0.50 in January 2010 to April 2011's peak of A$2.60. From April 2011 to October 2011 it moved down in 5 waves. As 5 down-waves can not be the end of a corrective wave, it has to be wave A of a corrective wave. The subsequent 3-waves rebound with a climax surge on 2nd February, when a Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) was approved, marked the end of wave B. The current down trend can be the starting of wave C. It appeared to me that the stock price is heading for A$0.50 for a 100% retracement. Does it means the Malaysian Government is going to cancel the TOL for certain reasons???


Friday, February 24, 2012

Anti-Lynas rally. Kuantan. This Sunday 26 February

Balok, 3km from the rare earth plant
Will this waterbody be poluted?

Himpunan Hijau 2.0
26 February 2012
9.30am Start
MPK4 Field, Kuantan

A closer look at Ali, Ah Chong, Subra
and Ahmad from Kuantan 2020

Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) is satisfied that the rare earth plant is safe as the facility has been certified by a registered Engineer. If there is anything wrong, AELB will hold the Engineer responsible.

Just wonder who is that Engineer and what is his discipline, structural? mechanical? electrical? radioactive? industrial process? chemical? many more???? The Board of Engineers and The Institution of Engineers Malaysia may need to look into this engineering piece of work that affects the national environment and safety.

Ideally AELB Headquarters should be shifted to Gebeng, sited next to the Lynas Plant with full staff quarters for the AELB's families.


Thursday, February 23, 2012

Take a few minutes off


Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Carjacked and Abducted, 9 February 2012, Bukit Prima

....... I felt my car being bumped from behind ............. I stopped and even came out of my car ........ THAT WAS THE MOST NAIVE, STUPID, ........... I found myself being shoved into the back seat .........

Click 'Abducted 9 February, 2012' for details.

She could have been raped and killed.

Police, "Single women driving high end cars are popular targets."

"In all circumstances, just drive as fast as you can to the nearest police station, guardhouse or anywhere there are lots of people. Remember, never get out of your car."


Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Agreement reached on euro 130 billion Greek bailout

The euro 130 billion bailout deal must still be approved by all eurozone national parliaments.

Greece today is just like the Parthenon.

Will the euro 130 billion helps to turn the economy around or are the bankers/investors trying to salvage their investment and to squeeze the last drop of blood from Greece.

"We are like drug addicts who have just been given their next dose, this is what they have reduced our country to."

"For the first time, I am embarrassed to say I'm Greek."

Greece will be forced to set up a separate account that gives legal priority to debt and interest payments over paying for Government services (paying salaries, welfare, pensions, etc)

A permanent surveillance committee will be stationed in Greece to inspect Greece's finances and the implementation of austerity measures.

With current unemployment rate exceeding 20%, youth unemployment reaching 48%, already 4 years into recession with wages reduced by 40% so far, economy shrunk 7% annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2011, under the new deal, Greece is expected to retrench 15,000 government workers immediately and a total of 150,000 workers by 2015; To reduce their wages by another 20% and to reduce minimum wages by 20%.

With rising cost of living and food prices, it is going to be 'a new hell' for the Greeks.


Monday, February 20, 2012

Court filing to stop Lynas

A group of Pahang residents have challenged the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) in court. They are seeking court orders to cancel AELB's award of a Temporary Operating Licence to Lynas on January 30.

Click "Anti Lynas Campaign Goes To Court" for details.

Last week, AELB said, " ....... Lynas Corp's rare earth refinery is safe because the facility has been certified by a registered engineer ......... if anything else happens, we will take it up with the engineer .......".

I suspect this statement is in respond to the withdrawal of AkzoNobel, the largest global paints and coating company, in supplying the resins for the lining of concrete-walled tanks that did not meet safety standard (New York Times). Problems of damped floor and cracked wall were reported.

Under such circumstances, like the MRR2 Kepong Flyover concrete cracking incidence, a world-renowned firm specialist in concrete structure should be called in to make an assessment. Just wonder who is that engineer that certified the said structure.

Baotou rare earth plants, China

Toxic waste


Sunday, February 19, 2012

Dow - a new 'Option 2'

On Friday (Feb. 17) Dow closed at 12,950, that is 140 points (1%) above level 12,810 that I have denoted as end of major wave B. See wave count below with a small 'Double Top' reversal pattern.

If Dow continues to move higher from here, the only possibility at this stage is as shown below, major wave B is not yet completed. Major wave B is heading toward 2007 October peak of 14,164 for a possible big 'Double Top' formation.

Under 'Option 2' scenario, major wave B may last until December 2012, another 10 months to go before the major wave C starts.


Saturday, February 18, 2012

The Chinese Glory

Received an email from a friend with the followings:

"China is buying and/or building all around the world.
They are building all kinds of things all over China.
And they are debt free, don't have anyone shooting at them and no war to fight.
Or a ship load of people trying to get into their country.
Tell me what are they doing right, and the rest of us doing wrong?
They have the money to build this train line?"

Well, it is the cheap labour from the poor rural areas

Tough life

Child Labour

Tied to the wall when both parents are at work


This is why

'There is no ship load of people trying to get into China.'

China supply 95% of world's rare earth minerals

with radioactive waste in the open

It is not that glorious