Monday, December 30, 2019

Malaguena Salerosa - Roberto Polisano

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Pinehill Pacific Bhd (Rm0.515)

Pinepac has completed the wave (i)-(ii) of its major wave 3. It has started the wave (iii) of its major wave 3.


Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Merry Christmas

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Dow is on major wave 9

Dow (28,455)

Dow added another 320 point last week to end the week with another new record high. Now that Dow has moved to this high level, it is no more relevant to discuss why wave C has only 3 waves. May be it is better to track Dow along the path of a major wave 9 until further form development to suggest otherwise.

If major wave 8 was ended at in December 2018, it is likely that Dow is about to complete the sub-wave v of its wave (i) of its major wave 9.

If wave (i) of 9 has more than 5 waves, then the sub-wave v will be followed by a sub-wave vi pullback.

But if wave (i) has only 5 waves then the next higher degree pullback will be the wave (ii) correction of about 10%.

However if Dow can move up strongly next week and break its current upper channel, Dow will have a more dynamic sub-wave v and that will make it more likely to have 9 waves for its wave (i).

FBMKLCI (1,610)

With last week's strong rebound, it is very likely that wave (iii) has ended, KLCI is forming the mini wave 3 of its wave (iv) rebound.

Mega wave (6) can be ended during the first quarter of 2020 unless wave C has 9 waves.


Saturday, December 21, 2019

Happy Winter Solstice

Monday, December 16, 2019

Apa Salah Bossku

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has permanently barred former Goldman Schs banker Leissner from the securities industry for violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by allegedly receiving more than US$43 million in illicit payments for helping to facilitate a bribery scheme involving high-ranking government officials in Malaysia and Abu Dhabi.

Leissner is required to give up all his ill-gotten gains of US$43.7 million.

Before this action by the SEC, Leisser has pleaded guilty earlier to criminal charges filed by the US Department of Justice for his involment in 1MDB scandal.

The Ghost of Altantuya

Case management on Tuesday (17/12/2019) at the Federal Court on application by Azilah Hadri to review his conviction and death sentence imposed on him by the Federal Court in 2015. The court has fixed 20/4/2020 to hear Azilah's review application.


Saturday, December 14, 2019

Mui, Focus Dynamics and Fintec

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm0.215)

Mui Moved sideways in the last few days. Hopefully that is the minor wave ii and hopefully it can move higher next week to start its minor wave iii.

In a less bullish reading, the current uptrend is only a wave B.

A more bullish reading, Mui has been forming its mega wave (3) since 2017and now it has moved on to its major wave 3 which is expected to be more dynamic.

Focus Dynamics Group Bhd (Rm0.445)

Focus confirmed the formation of its wave (iii) by breaking out of its sideways channel and by staying above its upper trend line

The current uptrend is the wave (iii) of its major wave 3 of its mega wave (3). Wave (iii) of 3 of (3) is expected to be very dynamic.

Focus is technically strong but fundamentally lousy. Its last four quarterly earnings per share were -0.11, +0.03, +0.03 and 0.00 for the latest quarter. Its current net assets per share is only 2 sens.

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm0.055)

I find it hard to understand (fundamentally) why people continued to sell Fintec at 5.5 sens. In the last two trading days another 7.2 million shares were sold to the buyers at 5.5 sens. But technically Fintec has to behave in that way in order to complete the wave (v) of its wave C. In fact to has to drop at least to its previous low of 4 sens to completed its wave (v), unless it is going to be a failure wave (v) then the C can end either at 5.5 sens, 5 sens or 4.5 sens.

At 5.5 sens, the total market value of Fintec (689 million shares) is Rm37.9 million. From its latest quarterly report, it has cash of Rm20.2 million (Zero borrowing). Its holding in Focus is 507.9 million shares that has a market value of Rm226.02 million with Focus at 44.5 sens a share.
I guess those that were selling Fintec at 5.5 sens were thinking that Focus share price at 44.5 sens is non-sustainable and very soon it is going to plunge to below 10 sens a share. But my technical reading for Focus is very bullish, it is currently on wave (iii) of 3 of (3). But of course I can be wrong too.

Monday, December 9, 2019

Focus Dynamics Group Bhd (Rm0.38)

Focus principal business is Food & Beverage (F&B) that accounts for 98% of the group's total revenue. The group has established six outlets, namely CHAZE, LAVO, MAZE, LIBERTE, BOUNCE and WECKED KL.

Focus announced a very poor result for its latest quarter ending 30/9/2019. Earning per share is zero and net assets is only 2 sens a share. But amongst the six companies that Fintec is holding, Focus is the top performer in term of share price.

Focus share price was only 9.5 sens on 2/5/2019. This morning it reached a high of 43.5 sens before being sold down to close at 38 sens. Volume was very high at 23 million.

Focus has been consolidating since early August. It appeared to me that it has completed its a-b-c wave (ii) in November and since then Focus has been forming the wave (iii) of its major wave 3.

But the candlestick formed today is a bearish long-legged doji with a very tall shadow at the top. A correction following the formation of a doji is common but if Focus can continue to move higher despite of a doji candlestick, then it is very very bullish.

It is important to note that Fintec has about 508 million shares of Focus. If these 508 million is divided by the total number of Fintec shares of 680 million, we have 0.75 Focus share for each Fintec share. Fintec at 5.5 sens a share looked cheap.

Fintec's latest quarterly earning of 13.64 sens a share with net assets at 38 sens a share was mainly due to the appreciation of Focus stock price. Similarly by December 31 if Focus share price dropped below its September 30 price of 36 sens, it will have a negative impact to Fintec's next quarter earning. But the wave (iii) of Focus is likely to continue into the first quarter of 2020.


Sunday, December 8, 2019

Dow - More likely on major wave 9

Dow (28,015)

After plunging through its upper trendline with a gap on Tuesday, Dow regained 513 points in the next three trading days to move back to above the upper trendline again. It appeared to me that Dow is more likely to be in its major wave 9. Very likely Dow has just completed the wave (i) of its major wave 9.

With this wave count, Dow is likely to move lower in the next few months to complete its wave (ii) of major wave 9.

However if Dow can continue to move higher from its current level with more record highs, the only possibility is as shown below - Dow is at the tail end of its wave (i) of its major wave 9.

And of course, it may be unlikely at this moment but it may be good not to rule out the worst possible scenario, the wave A-B-C-D-E for major wave 8.

FBMKLCI (1,568)

KLCI continued with its wave C of mega wave (6) formation.

Looking at its 2-Year chart, KLCI is either at the wave ix, the last wave of C, if I do not take the magnitude of the various rebounds into consideration.

But if I take the magnitude of rebounds into consideration as shown in the following chart, Wave C of mega wave (6) may need more time to complete.

Pinehill Pacific Bhd (Rm0.475)

Based on the quarterly report of Pinepac for quarter ending 30/9/2019, its earning reported is 71.66 sens a share  and net assets has increase to Rm1.49 a share. From its latest balance sheet, it has a net cash per share of 77 sens. After selling off all its plantation in Perak, Pinepac still has 51,000 acres of plantation land in Indonesia located near the southern border of Sarawak. Out of these 51,000 acres, 21,000 acres are matured oil palm estate. Pinepac at 47.5 sens is very cheap.

From its 5-Year chart, very likely Pinepac is forming its major wave 3 currently. OBV is very bullish. Price breakout is to be expected following its OBV breakout.

From its 6-Month chart, it is either at its sub-wave vii of wave (i)

Or it has just completed its wave (i).

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm0.215)

Mui put on two green candlesticks on Thursday and Friday with improved volume. It is quite likely that Mui has started its minor wave (iii) of its sub-wave i. Is Mui going to announce the successful sale of its Corus Hotel Hyde Park London very soon ?


Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm0.20)

On 14 December 2018 Tan Sri Khoo Kay Peng resigned as the executive chairman of Mui and was replaced by his son Andrew Khoo Boo Yeow.

Less than 24 hours after the announcement of his appointment as the new executive chairman of Mui, Andrew Khoo met with the press to reveal his ambitious plan for the loss-making company. Mui has been in the red since 2014. His plan was to turn Mui around in two years with profit and be able to give shareholders dividend.

One of his strategic thrusts for the Mui is to rationalise the group assets.

On 30 April this year, Mui informed Bursa Malaysia that its wholly owned unit Corus Hotel Ltd has appointed N.M. Rothschild and Sons Ltd as its financial adviser on the sale of Corus Hotel Hyde Park, London. Andrew revealed that the group had received an offer of slightly more than 200 million pound (Rm1.09 billion) before Rothschild's appointment. In May Andrew Khoo said that he hoped to be able to identify a buyer within the next 3 to 4 months.

By now 6 months has passed since Rothschild's appointment, I just wonder whether Mui has already identified a buyer and has proceeded to finalise the S&P agreement ? But one thing is for sure, Mui's share price will fly when there is announcement to Bursa Malaysia on the buyer for the Hotel.

From the chart, it is wave (1)-(2), 1-2 until December 2018. In 2019, Mui has formed mini wave 1-2-3-4. From the 6-month chart, Mui is about to complete its minor wave (i)-(ii), minor wave (iii) is getting ready to start.

At today closing price of 20 sens, Mui's market cap is Rm587 million, Corus Hotel Hyde Park alone is already more than its market cap by Rm483 million or 82% without considering its other Hotels/properties and businesses.


Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Dow - Down with a gap

Dow (27,502)

When President Donald Trump signed into law the congressional legislation 'The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act 2019' last Wednesday, Dow still managed to hold above the upper trend-line on Friday after the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Dow formed a long red candlestick on Monday followed with a gap down on Tuesday.

In addition to that, the index has moved below its upper trend-line.

Since it failed to pulled away and maintained above its upper trend-line, I have no choice but to bring one of my previous scenario of wave D and E. This is very bearish.

Besides this scenario, there is another less bearish scenario that I mentioned 3 weeks ago in my article dated 16 November.

There is this possibility that Dow is forming an overlapping i-ii-iii-iv-v wave (i). Wave (ii) is expected to be a 10% or less correction to around 25,700 to 25,300 level.


Monday, December 2, 2019

Dow - Is Dow pulling away?

Dow (28,051)

As Dow is pulling away from its upper trend-line, probability is getting higher that Dow is forming its major wave 9.

Hopefully the next pullback can hold above the upper trend-line then I can forget about the A-B-C-D-E major wave 8 option.

Pinehill Pacific Bhd (PN17) (Rm0.47)

Pinepac announced earning of 71.66 sens a share with net assets at Rm1.49 a share due to its one-off gain from its disposal of 8,999.13 acres of land for Rm413.574 millions.

Under its current assets, it has cash of Rm185.611 million

Under its liability table, amount payable and borrowing added up to Rm70.155 million.

Its net cash position is Rm115.456 million, that is about 77 sens a share. Besides its cash, Pinepac still has 51,000 acres of land in Indonesia with 21,000 acres of mature oil palm. At today's closing price of 47 sens, it is greatly undervalued.

Pinepac is forming its major wave 3 at this moment.

From its 6-month chart Pinepac is at its sub-wave vii.

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm0.055)

Fintec as expected announced earning of 13.64 sens a share with net assets at 38 sens a share. Its stock price went to a high of 9.5 sens on Tuesday but closed at only 5.5 sens today. Pinepac continues to lose money on its business operation. The good earning came from the fair value gained of its investment holdings.

The rebound to 9.5 sens completed the wave (iv) of its wave C of (2). The current wave (v) may see Fintec to retest its historical low of 4 sens one more time before starting its mega wave (3).