Saturday, July 30, 2016

Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$41.45)

Crude Oil is forming its wave (iv) which is going to take another 12 months to complete. Currently it is forming its sub-wave ii correction.

Dow (18,432)

Very likely Dow has completed its mini wave 1-2-3-4. Mini wave 5 is on the way, Dow will set more new record highs.

Looking at the 5-hourly interval chart, the mini wave 4 was completed 4 days ago. Hopefully I am right.

FBMKLCI (1,653)

My reading for KLCI is based on the assumption that the current BN government is going for an early election and KLCI is forming its major wave 5.

KLCI is currently forming the sub-wave ii of its wave (iii). The next up trend is expected to be dynamic with high volume as it is the sub-wave iii of wave (iii). Hopefully sub-wave iii can start to form before end of next week.

My favorite stocks are the same, EG, Insas and FGV. I have added another stock Denko in my watching list.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.84)

Very likely EG has completed its major wave 4 at the beginning of May. Since then it has been forming its major wave 5.

It took 3 months, May, June and July to form the wave (i)-(ii) of its major wave 5. It may take another week to complete its wave (ii) unless there is a failure c.

Insas Bhd (Rm0.65)

Same as EG, Insas has also completed its major wave 4 and wave (i)-(ii) of its major wave 5.

Since early July, if I am right, its has form the sub-wave i-ii of its wave (iii). Next up should be the iii of (iii).

Felda Global Ventures Holding Bhd (Rm1.85)

If the recent high is the completion of its sub-wave iii, FGV may have to take another week or two to complete its sub-wave iv

However if the 'interested party' starts to push the stock again next week, then the last high could be the mini wave 1 of sub-wave iii and the correction in the last few days could be the mini wave 2.

Denko Industrial Corporation (Rm0.36)

After reading an article from 'Bonescythe Stock Watch'. Click 'Bonescythe-Denko' for the article. Amongst the many many stocks that he has recommended, I found that Deko's chart is very bullish with strong OBV indicating strong accumulation.

My interpretation of its chart is an unbelievable wave (1)-(2), 1-2, (i)-(ii), i-ii and 1-2 formation. I hope I am right and of course, I could be wrong too. OBV is really impressive.

I love the bullish formation of overlapping mini wave 1-2-3-4-5 for its sub-wave i.

And again I have the same bullish overlapping minor wave i-ii-iii-iv-v for is mini wave 1 as shown in the 6-month chart.

Its last three quarterly earning is on the up trend, from 0.56 sen improved to 0.80 sen and in the last quarter ending 31st March, 1.45 sen. NTA is Rm0.54 a share. Total number of shares is 104 millions. Net borrowing is about Rm 8 millions. Accumulated losses Rm 4.7 million. Reserve Rm 19.3 million. Everything looks OK. The next thing to watch is its next announcement for its quarterly earning for quarter ending 30th June.


Monday, July 25, 2016

Dow - Expecting more record highs

Dow (18,493)

Dow continues to form its major wave (7)

FBMKLCI (1,668)

KLCI is forming the sub waves of its wave (iii). Currently it is either on its sub wave ii

or it has yet to complete its sub-wave i if KLCI continues to move higher in the next few days.

Felda Global Venture Holding Bhd (Rm 1.87)

If the BN government is pushing the markets higher in preparation for an early election, one stock that it has to push higher is Felda Global Ventures Holding Bhd (FGV).

FGV was listed in June 2012 with IPO price of Rm4.55. Bank loans were provided to the poor Felda settlers to purchase FGV at Rm4.55.

On the first day of listing the price went up to Rm5.30 and  subsequently it went to a high of Rm5.50 before starting its long decline.

Since the votes from Felda settlers are crucial to the BN, I guess they have no choice, they have to push FGV higher to please the Felda settlers.

From its August 2015's low of Rm1.19, FGV started to rebound and by May 2016 it has completed its wave (i)-(ii). Currently it is forming its wave (iii).

The strong run-up with high volume in the last 6 trading days is the sub-wave iii of its wave (iii). Very likely sub-wave iii is about to complete. The next pullback can be the sub-wave iv.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Dow - New historical high

Dow (18,506)

Dow ended Thursday's trading session on new record high in anticipation of further policy easing.

Dow is forming the wave (iii) of its major wave (7). If the magnitude of wave (iii) is the same as that of wave (i), it may end around 19,500 level.

Looking at the long-term chart, Dow is currently forming the major wave (7) of its mega wave VII.

Will the Malaysian stock market, FBMKLCI index move in tandem with the Dow? I think it depends on whether the BN government is going for an early election and my bet is - Ah Jib Gor will dissolve the parliament before end of 2016. But before that he will try to push up the stock and property market and the ringgit.

Technically if KLCI can move up from its current level to form 5 mini up-trend wave (sub-wave (i)), it is likely to move in tandem with Dow.


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Bank Negara cuts interest rate - GE is near

In a surprising move, Bank Negara cuts its key interest rate for the first time in seven years. The overnight policy rate is reduced by 25 basis points to 3.00%.

I guess this is another indication that a snap election is on the way.

Upon hearing the news at around 3.00pm, investors started to move into property stocks and that pushes the property index higher to close the day at 1169 for a 38 points gain (+3.4%).

FBMKLCI (1,660)

KLCI gained 6 points (+0.4%) at the close of today's trading.

I viewed the interest rate cut as the first step to push the markets by the BN government in preparation for a snap election. To make people feel good, KLCI must go up, the higher the merrier. The next thing I expect them to do is to strengthen the Ringgit. People will feel extremely good when prices of imported goods start to move lower.

Technically if KLCI can move up from here, it will have 5 mini waves in an up-trend direction forming the sub-wave i.

Then KLCI will have a chance to complete have a proper major wave 5 instead of a failure major wave 5 that I have mentioned earlier. Finally it is still possible for KLCI to move in tandem with the Dow despite of 1MDB's issue.


Sunday, July 10, 2016

FBMKLCI - Going North or Going South ?

Crude Oil WTI (US$45.16)

Crude oil may have another run-up to complete its wave a.

Dow (18,146)

Dow moved above 18,000 level on Friday. Hopefully this is the wave (iii) of (7).

FBMKLCI (1,644)

At this stage I still prefer to assume that KLCI has completed its Super wave (I) with a failure major wave 5 as shown below.

Under this scenario, Friday's drop is likely to be the starting of sub-wave iii going south.

However if KLCI can move higher to 1,670 level in the next few days to form five up-trend waves, it is possible that this is the work of our Government in preparation for the next general election.

With the Government's all out pushing, KLCI might be able to continue with its major wave 5 formation.

The crucial point here is whether KLCI can go higher to 1,670 in the next few days or it is going to continue with last Friday's down-trend and heading south with a one-way ticket.


Sunday, July 3, 2016

Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 49.27)

It is possible that the wave a of (iv) is completed. Crude oil price is likely to head lower in the next 3 to 4 months unless wave a can have another surge before its completion.

Dow (17,949)

Dow is forming its major wave (7). Still has a long way to go.

FBMKLCI (1,646)

I preferred to maintain that KLCI has completed its super wave (I) with a failure major wave 5. If so then the current rebound is sub-wave ii of wave (iii).

However, if KLCI is able to move higher than the high of wave (ii) (1,660), I will need to review my wave count.