Thursday, March 31, 2011

Ekovest - Possible Head and Shoulders

Ekovest is currently forming its sub-wave vi

If Ekovest is unable to move above Rm4.00, and instead it started to go lower, it is possible that it may form a "Head and Shoulders reversal pattern as shown above. Once the neckline at around Rm 3.30 is broken, it will head for Rm 2.30 (minimum level) or lower. But it should not drop below Rm1.95, the top of wave i.

Something Light

Toward the end of the Sunday service, the Minister asked, "How many of you have forgiven your enemies?"

80% held up their hands.

The Minister then repeated his question. All responded this time, except one man, an avid golfer named Walter Barnes, who attended church only when the weather was bad.

"Mr. Barnes, it's obviously not a good morning for golf. It's good to see you here today. Are you not willing to forgive your enemies?"

"I don't have any," he replied gruffly.

"Mr. Barnes, that is very unusual.. How old are you?"

"Ninety-eight," he replied. The congregation stood up and clapped their hands.

"Oh, Mr. Barnes, would you please come down in front & tell us all how a person can live ninety-eight years & not have an enemy in the world?"

The old golfer tottered down the aisle, stopped in front of the pulpit, turned around, faced the congregation, and said simply, "I outlived all the sons of bitches."

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Dow - No sign of reversal

A chart technician basically believed that chart pattern is the end products of market participant's emotional or calculated reactions to all the news, events, policies and anything under the sun that has an effect on market movement.

If the above is true, the latest chart of Dow Jones Industrial Index has already factored into the chart all the recent happenings in Japan, Middle East, North Africa and Europe. The high food and commodity prices, unemployment, etc. etc. until the latest state of development of the events.

Dow continues to defy all odds to move higher in the last 9 trading sessions. It appears that the recent low at around 11,600 is just another corrective wave.

Looking at the long-term chart below, Dow so far has not shown any sign that its uptrend movement has ended if we forget about the wave count and there is no reversal pattern so far to indicate that it has started its next down trend, the mega wave C that I have mentioned previously.

The ending point of wave 5 could be a possible terminal location for mega wave B, but since Dow was unable to break the lower support line to provide the necessary confirmation for the mega wave C required, the hypothesis has ended.

So Dow's uptrend remains intact and it proceeds to form its wave 7.

But Nasdaq is painting a different picture, its current up-trend is likely to be wave 5 instead of wave 7. It was caused by the extra corrective sub-wave iv of wave 3. Since the current uptrend for Nasdaq is wave 5, it provides a possible terminal point for mega wave B.

Under the current circumstances, it is hard to pin point the possible ending point for mega wave B but it is rather clear that Dow is on its final journey to complete the B, definitely I won't talk about buying stocks and hold for long term during this final journey of Dow. Speculative buy may be possible but not advisable and if really wanted to try, one must be prepared to cut loss if found to be on the wrong footing.

The chart pattern for Hang Seng remains the same despite a 391 points gain today. It continues to stay within the down trend channel.


Monday, March 28, 2011

Shanghai SSEC Index

Shanghai market had a very strong bull run from 2005 to 2007. The SSEC index started from a low of 1012 in 2005 shot to 6092 within two years for a 500% gain before it was dragged down by the financial crisis started in the US. It plunged 72% to 1705 by November 2008 and started its rebound 4 months ahead of Dow. However it completed its rebound within 12 months by August 2009 whereas Dow continued to move higher in the next 19 months until February 2011.

Within this 19-month period, SSEC has been moving side way to lower forming an expanding diagonal A-B-C-D-E pattern as shown. So far it has completed its wave A,B,C,D and sub-wave 1 and 2 of E. The next wave down will be the sub-wave 3 of E, which can either fall short or over shoot. This last drop is expected to be at least 30% down.


Sunday, March 27, 2011

A liquidity driven market

250,000 to 500,000 people attended the rally in London against spending cut.

My previous wave count, a wedge formation, wave 5 was completed. Major wave (iii) as well as mega wave B were also completed. Mega wave C has started.

However, despite of all the unrest in North Africa and Middle East, earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant problems in Japan, European debt problems, high commodity and food prices, high unemployment rates and others bad news, Dow managed to climb above 12,200 point in the last 7 trading sessions.

Dow has moved so high that it is possible to rule out the supposed to be mini-wave 4, especially when it lapsed into the supposed to be mini-wave 2 as shown above.

Unless Dow starts to drop in the next few days to below 11,600, failure which, the wave count is as shown, for a wave 6 formation, it is possible that Dow has gone into extension for a 9 waves formation for the major wave (iii) of mega wave B.

However the wave count for Nasdaq is telling a different story.
There was no wedge formation and instead it has a sub-wave 3 that consists of 5 mini waves as shown below. The recent low is sub-wave 4 and Nasdaq is currently in its sub-wave 5 that is likely to complete in April but has to watch out for failure.

Under QE2 US$600 billion asset purchase plan until end of June, on every trading day, Federal Reserve purchases more than US$ 5 billion of US Treasury securities from financial institutions under its Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO). On every trading day, these financial institutions receive a total of more than US$5 billion of cash to invest. A big portion of this money might have been invested in stocks. If so, I think they have created a bubble that grows with time. I think I will just watch the show from the sideline.


Saturday, March 26, 2011

Light and easy on Saturday night

Friday, March 25, 2011

Some headlines

So, QE3 not recommended.

If he is right, those holding 10 to 30 years treasury bond will be in big trouble as the dollars they will get in the future will be worth a lot less.


Thursday, March 24, 2011

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

My wave count for Hang Seng Index is rather bearish.

From October 2007 peak to March 2009 low, there are 5 waves, the low can either be wave A or wave 1. Since the rebound until November 2010 high has a magnitude to big to be wave 2, it is more likely that it is B.

Since November 2010, Hang Seng has been moving in a down trend channel with high lower than the previous high and low lower than the previous low (Dow Theory). My wave count is as shown above. Hang Seng is expected to break its short-term lower support very soon.

However, if the index breakout of its upper resistance line, then I will have to look at it differently.

Despite of all the bad news, world bourses were able to move higher in the last few days including today.

The only reason that I can think of is the excessive liquidity in the markets. I won't be surprised that many nations might have followed the foot step of the US government in excessive money printing. They can keep on printing and pushing the stocks and commodities, the bubble will become bigger and bigger and when it burst, it is going to be worst than the 2007/2009 bear.

The following article written by Toby Connor published yesterday is rather bearish.

Click the following to read.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Residences of VIPs

My friend emailed to me the following.

Lee Kuan Yew

He is staying in this 1940's house

With simple basic furniture

Warren Buffet

A 5-room house built in 1921
He purchased it in 1958 for US$31,500.00
and has been staying in this house
in the last 53 years

Abdul Taib Mahmud
Sarawak Chief Minister

One of his many residences

Dr. Mohamad Khir Toyo
Ex-Chief Minister of Selangor

Some said it worth Rm 24 millions

Add Image

Monday, March 21, 2011

Singapore STI - Mega wave C

Singapore STI gained 47 points or 1.6% at the close today, one of those technical rebound as it headed South forming a mini wave ii of its sub-wave (iii) of wave 3 of major wave (I) of mega wave C.

The next wave down after forming its mini wave ii will be the dynamic mini wave iii of (iii) of 3 of (I), it has to be a sharp one in its next wave down.


Sunday, March 20, 2011

Dow - It will continue to go South

The last two days of rebound is likely to be technical in nature, I expect Dow to continue to move lower in the coming week. Wave (i) of major wave (1) of C may reach a low of 11,000.

Negative Factors

With the escalation of war in Libya, the unrest in other parts of North Africa and Middle East, the Japanese Fukushima nuclear plants crisis, Portugal on edge of financial collapse, high commodity prices, high food prices, high unemployment rate, etc etc etc, I see no reason why Dow is not in its journey to complete the big wave C.


Saturday, March 19, 2011

Fukushima's Heroes


The wrecked nuclear plant.

Heroes go to work

The 180 workers risk death from massive radiation poisoning as they struggle to contain the crisis at Fukushima nuclear plants.

They are working round the clock to stop the wrecked nuclear reactor from over-heating by bringing water to the reactor.

Nuclear experts have said the men are essentially sacrificing their lives by staying at the plant.

Courtesy of

Friday, March 18, 2011

The Draws - UEFA Champions League 2010/11

This is the ball for the final by Adidas

Bad luck for the British, Chelsea has to face Manchester United at this quarterfinal stage. Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid is able to avoid another Spanish team Barcelona at this stage. However if both the teams are able to proceed to semifinal, they will have to face each other for a place in the final at Wembley.

Jose Mourinho

Benzema's goal against Lyon

Real Madrid managed to beat Lyon 3-1 last Wednesday to qualify for this quarterfinal after a lapse of 7 years, they last won the cup in 2002.

Last year Mourinho was able to lead Inter-Milan to win 3 titles, the Coppa Italia, Serie A and the FIFA Champions League that they last won in 1965. If Real Madrid can win the Champions League in Wembley, then Mourinho is really "The Special One".