Thursday, June 30, 2011

Go Back to Australia Lynas

Go Back To Australia Lynas

It is only logical that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared that the plant is safe as Lynas plant has adopted the safety procedure and guidelines established and recommended by IAEA. To say that it is not safe is equivalent to say that the IAEA guidelines on radiation safety is not safe.

This whole checking exercise is merely an invitation to IAEA to check and see whether Lynas has complied to IAEA rule of safety that IAEA claimed to be safe.

Who has checked and audited IAEA's safety guidelines ?? The guidelines were formulated by IAEA and approved by IAEA.

Lynas Chairman, Curtis has refuted allegation in New York Times report which claimed the plant had construction and design flaws. Someone should follow up on this.

Please click Design Flaws to read more.

"Mr. Curtis, if your plant is very safe as you have claimed, why were you not allowed by your Australian Government to set up a plant beside your mine to process your rare earth in the great Austrlian desert????".

"Why you have to spend so much money to ship them over 4000 km to Kuantan for processing???? No business sense right???".

Assuming IAEA guidelines is flawless, to adhere to the guideline from A to Z is going to cost Lynas tons of money, who can ensure that the Lynas Giant will do A to Z many years down the road??? We all know too well the story of law enforcement and $$$$$ in this boleh land.

Chernobyl was supposed to be safe

Fukushima was supposed to be very safe too

One final question

"Why set up the plant in Kuantan??"
"Why not George Town, Kota Bharu, Shah Alam or Ipoh??"

The answer

"Pahang people very lovely mah, you give them toxic waste they still vote for you mah".



Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Nasdaq - Mini wave v is expected to start soon


Mini wave iv continued with its rebound in the last two days. It should not go higher than 2750, the end of mini wave i. If my reading is right, it should start to turn down and continue south to break the 2616 level.


Tuesday, June 28, 2011

No to Lynas

Went to Kuantan last weekend and saw this great movement at Bukit Pelindong by accident, the anti Lynas movement is definitely growing rapidly.

3,500 have participated

A Great Day Indeed

If the movement is able to have a high percentage of the Kuantan folks wearing this black anti Lynas T-Shirt moving around in town everyday, the Government will really have to act carefully.

If this black T-shirt started to grow in number on the street of all the big towns, the Government will have no choice but to so no to Lynas.

The strategy is to get sponsors for the T-shirts and to come out with more interesting designs and to start a nationwide campaign of wearing this black T-shirt everywhere one goes during weekends.

For more photos and news click Stop Lynas.


Monday, June 27, 2011

Commodity - Bearish

It appeared to me that the CRB commodity index has formed a 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern and it has dropped below its neckline last week. Its minimum target is the 300 points level. A weak commodity indicates poor demand and a slow down in industrial activity. Stocks indices usually go down together with CRB index especially the mining and agriculture sectors.


Sunday, June 26, 2011

Dow and some major Asian Bourses

Dow dropped 115 point on Friday to close at 11934, resting on its lower support level. Once the lower trend line is broken, Dow is likely to move lower at a steeper gradient.

After reaching its low of 1146 in 2008, Indonesian market has gained more than 200% in the last 30 months as the best performed market.

Whereas Japanese Nikkei index is the worst performed major stock index in Asia.

Singapore STI index has been moving within a wedge. I expect the index to breakout on the downside and is likely to move lower at a higher speed.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index has moved lower and reached its longer term lower support line last Friday. I personally do not think that this support level can hold.

Australian currency might have performed very well due to its commodity based economy, however, its stock market performance is rather poor amongst the Asian Pacific bourses. It is possible that its is heading for a double tops formation.

Once Dow breaks its lower support level, I expect all the other world bourses are expected to break their respective lower support level and dive together with their big brother, the Dow.

How To Heal Yourself

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Dow - Another bad day

After 90 minutes of trading
(June 23)

If April's peak is the end of the major wave B, we are only at the initial stage of the major wave C, it is going to be a long journey to the South. The intermediate cycle low for Dow is at 11613.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Nasdaq - I don't think 2616 can hold.

The current rebound is about to finish. On the next down journey, I expect Nasdaq to break the 2616 support level.

A bearish Article by Toby Connor published on June 20, 'The Bear Is Back', click to read. The 2616 level is the intermediate cycle low (as mentioned) for Nasdaq.

It's Showtime


Sunday, June 19, 2011

Last Friday Nasdaq closed at 2616 level, a temporary support level provided by the closing price of mini wave 4 in March.

If Nasdaq continues to move lower in the coming week by breaking the 2616 level in the early part of the week, it will further strengthen the hypothesis that we are at the early phase of a big bear market.

Since November 2011 Hang Seng has continued to set lower highs and lower lows. It has set a new 2011 low at the close of last Friday's session.

Hang Seng has broken the lower support trend line as well as the 22,000 support level on Friday. I expect Hang Seng to continue setting new lows in the coming months.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Another busy week

I am still around

just a little busy

Some people say a man is made outta mud
A poor man's made outta muscle and blood
Muscle and blood and skin and bones
A mind that's a-weak and a back that's strong

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go
I owe my soul to the company store


Monday, June 13, 2011

Ekovest - head and shoulders, Part IV

Has wave (iv) of major wave 3 ended?

If Ekovest can move higher from here and break the Rm 3.00 level within the next two day, it is possible that Rm 2.60 level is the end of wave (iv) and the wave (v) of major wave 3 has started. Major wave 3 should be much higher than major wave 1 of Rm 3.60. I expect the major wave 3 to have 9 waves in order to have sufficient height over major wave 1.

The main question is, when the bear is in control of the market, can Ekovest moves higher on its own? As long as there is no panic selling, some stokes still can move higher.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Nasdaq - Can 2,616 level hold ?

Nasdaq dropped another 41 points (1.5%) on Friday to close at 2,643, which is 27 points above its next important support level of 2,616, which is also the minimum target of the 'Head and shoulders' pattern. However, if the market has started its major corrective wave, all major support levels will provide only temporary support before the bear continues with its downward journey.

Richard Russell of the Dow Theory letter says,

"The whole current mess reminds me a lot of 1929-30. After the crash of ‘29, the stock market roared higher, even as the economy was simultaneously weakening. When the great post-crash rally died in April 1930, the market turned down with a vengeance, and the Great Depression began. …The market is probably now in the process of forming a complex top. If the market now turns down convincingly, we could see the beginning of Great Depression No. 2."

Nouriel Roubini, who famously warned of a massive financial crisis in 2006, is also getting bearish.

"Until now, equity prices were supported by better-than- expected earnings, sales and profit margins,” Roubini said. “But all three are under squeeze. With slow global economic growth, they’re going to surprise on the downside. We’re going to see the beginning of a correction that’s going to increase volatility and that’s going to increase risk aversion."

Better be careful.


Friday, June 10, 2011

A busy week for a 61 years old

At last, I can sit back and relax.
Reading a long email from Pisa while listening to music.

A photo from my daughter

This is what she wrote:

"At certain angles it seems to be peeing around the corner from the church."

"A bit Medieval, a splash of Romanesque, all end with a sprinkle of Gothic topping, assembled under Italian style that is sometimes haphazard, quirky and yet still stylish in a very Italian way."

"I suppose to me, it is endearing, but not as endearing as the Baptistery, which I fondly called the chubby brother of the tower which no doubt has contributed to the design of R2-D2."


Thursday, June 9, 2011

Nasdaq - Be careful

Nasdaq closed with 9 points up at 2,684 a few hours ago, if I am right, there may be another one or two days of up to around 2,700 to complete the nano wave 2 before the starting of nano wave 3 of the mini wave iii. It means by next week it is possible that Nasdaq (Dow and S&P) may start to slide faster and I am sure the rest of the world will follow. I can be wrong, but be careful.

To get out at this level is still not that hurting, don't worry, be happy.


Sunday, June 5, 2011

Nasdaq - Neckline broken

Nasdaq dropped 36 points, 1.3% on Friday to close at 2737, which is about 13 points below the neckline of the 'Head and shoulders' formation, a bearish sign. Its next target is the March's closing low of 2616. A close below this level will provide further confirmation to downtrend. Dow and S&P should move in tandem with the Nasdaq.

I am expecting the dollar index to go below its last month low of 72.834 during its current slide.

A historical moment for China and for Asia.


Saturday, June 4, 2011

Roland Garros - Li Na Wins French Open Title

Li Na, the sixth seeded 29-year-old from Wuhan defeated Francesca Schiavone of Italy with a superb 7-0 tie-break, to win the first ever Grand Slam women's singles title for China.

The score, 6-4, 7-6(7/0).

She is also the first Asian women to win a Grand Slam title.

Those that watched the live telecast final, millions in China, saw for the first time the red flag of The People's Republic of China was flying when the national anthem, March of the Volunteers, was being played.

The celebration in China has started and it will continue until June 6 for the Dragon Boat Festival celebration

Friday, June 3, 2011

Dow - Nothing has changed

US Dollar Index has started to slide again after its recent high of above 76.

For global markets, I prefer to maintain my bearish view.

I don't think I can write off the 'Head and Shoulders' for the Dow at this moment. For long-term chart where the range of the prices is great, I usually used the semi-logarithm scale.

After the 2007 October's high, the correction so far, Dow is either forming an A-B-C wave major 6 or it is forming an A-B-C-D-E, mega wave (IV).For either case, the next wave down should be wave C and it can easily last more than 18 months.

For Bursa Malaysia, the FBMKLCI composite index may appear to be bullish, but in the last few weeks, its uptrend was not confirmed by the Industrial Index, this is the first time since the December 2008 bottom.

Whenever there is a divergence between the Composite Index and the Industrial Index, based on my past observation, the Composite Index will finally follow the Industrial Index. It happened at the 1997 peak before the market crash; and it has also happened at the 2009 market bottom before the run up. One really has to be very careful about the current divergence.

My current monitoring is focused on the Nasdaq index, as long as the Nasdaq continues to have new low that is lower than the previous low and new high that is lower than the previous high, the down trend is intact. Ultimately it will trigger a panic sell off. It is currently at sub-wave iii of wave1, still a long way to go if I am right.