Friday, August 30, 2013

Interpretation of Paintings

Paintings do convey different messages to different person and the many interpretations may not necessary match what was in the mind of the original painter.

The Starry Night - Vincent Van Gogh

The Persistence of Memory - Salvador Dali

Les Demoiselles D'Avignon - Picasso

I is for Idiot - Anurendra Jegadeva

From Anurendra Jegadeva : 

The painting was done many years ago. It is referring to the US invasion of Iraq during George W Bush's administration. The monkey in a fighter pilot's helmet represents the American military might and actions. The flag is an American flag with skull and cross bones that symbolises Bush's foreign policy. The Quranic verse represents the Iraqi and it was reversed to depict the topsy-turvy situation in the world.

But to Muafakat, an Islamic NGO :

The painting is offensive as it allegedly depicts Islam and Muslims as Idiot and had reversed the Quranic verse.

The Police : 

Super speed confiscation of paintings and questioning of Anurendra Jegadeva. Highly efficient when they want. No danger mah.


Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Bursa Malaysia - Refused to Die ?

FBMKLCI plunged 41 points (2.4%) to 1660 within the first 25 minutes today.

However, buyers came out after the initial plunge and pushed the index to 1686 at the close for a 15 points drop.

Has the index dropped below the 'Bump and Runs Top Reversal' trend lines ? Looking at the bar chart below, The index remains on top of the trendline.

  From the line chart, the index at the close also managed to rest on top of the trendline.

The 26 points intraday rebound can be considered as sharp. Is this the starting of wave (v) ?
Or it is just a technical rebound before another plunge as the game is already over.

Be careful.


Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Ugly Tuesday

FBMKLCI dropped another 21 points (-1.23%) to close at 1701. The decline was broad-based with 46 gainers and 747 losers.

FBMKLCI has so far completed its 'head and shoulders' and 'double-top' reversal patterns. The index is fast approaching the trendline of 'bump and run' reversal pattern. Once the index goes below the trendline, the reversal pattern is confirmed and I will need to work out how low it will drop.


Monday, August 26, 2013

Lii Hen Industries Bhd - Dropped 19% within a day

Lii Hen dropped 36 sen (-19%) to close at Rm 1.51 today. Over the weekend Lii Hen announced its second quarter earning of 4.33 sen per share, 60% lower than its first quarter earning of 10.43 sen.

It opened with a gap down and it punched through the lower support at Rm1.63 to form a 'bump and run reversal top' pattern which is very bearish.

With the 36 sen drop, it goes below the neckline of its ' Inverted head and shoulders' pattern.

If the current drop is the wave 4 drop, then it should be able to hold above the top of wave 1 at Rm 1.41, another 10 sen to go.

If it goes below Rm1.41 then it is possible that it is forming a big A-B-C corrective wave.

Looking at the way the the stock is being sold today, besides the quarterly earning announcement, is there anything that the sellers know that we don't know ?


Sunday, August 25, 2013

FBMKLCI - Not ready to die ? (Part 2)

If the current pullback for FBMKLCI is only a wave (iv) correction as shown below.

It is still possible that the index is currently forming the wave c of wave (iv)

The next question is - How low this wave c will go ?

The index has so far completed the minimum target of its small 'head and shoulders' and now there is a higher degree 'double-top' reversal pattern with minimum target at 1680 level that coincide with the lower resistance line.

The 1680 level is very crucial, if the index can stop at 1680 level, everything is fine. However, once the index goes below that level and punches through the lower resistance line, it will form Bulkowski's 'Bump-and-run-reversal-top' pattern, a very bearish pattern. Click 'Bulkowski BARR Top' for further explanation.

Example of Bump and Run Reversal with 'Double-top' formation.

Three reversal patterns, one after another, when the third one is confirmed, that has to be the last warning from the one up there.


Friday, August 23, 2013

Oh My God

Most older generation Chinese believed and my grandma used to say, "Lawyer ah sung-chai-moo-si-fatt".

When both the cops, former bodyguards of Ah Jib Koh and his wife, had admitted killing Altantuya and were convicted and sentenced to death by the Shah Alam High Court, the Court of Appeal has overturned the conviction today.

The three-person panel ruled that :
1. The cumulative effect of the misdirections by the trial judge had rendered the judgement unsafe.

2. The trial judge had erred by not examining whether the contradictions and inconsistencies in the evidence of the prosecution witnesses were material.

3. The trial judge failed to make further finding to connect the explosives to the appellants.

 "Thus with this, we acquit and discharge the two appellants," said Justice Tengku Maimun.

As an Engineer that always play with facts and figures I don't understand what they are talking about but I fully understand the meaning of 'Sung-Chai-Moo-Si-Fatt'. That was why all my children were prohibited to study law, just to make sure that all my grandchildren have 'Si-Fatt'

For further reading on related news click 'Altantuya'.


Thursday, August 22, 2013

FBMKLCI - Not ready to die ?

If Dow is not going to be good, FBMKLCI should not be good too. But after staring at the FBMKLCI chart for a long time, my wave count for FBMKLCI remains the same as what I have posted two days ago.

FBMKLCI has yet to complete its wave (v) to form the major wave 3. It also needs to form its major wave 4 & 5 to complete its mega wave (5) in order to complete its super wave (I).

But it is impossible for FBMKLCI to continue with its up-trend run if Dow were to move down-trend. In order for FBMKLCI to complete its super wave (I), the assets bubble should not burst in the near future until FBMKLCI has completed all its move.

Is there another alternative wave count for Dow other than what I have mentioned yesterday ?

Yes, there is one alternative wave count as shown below that can tie-in with FBMKLCI.

I have to replace the diagonal wave (v) with wave (vi), (vii) and (viii). Its wave (ix) will tie in with FBMKLCI wave (v). Its next major wave (6) correction will be in tandem with FBMKLCI major wave 4 correction.

Both the wave (ix) of Dow and wave (v) of FBMKLCI  will take about three to four months to complete, that will take us to end of 2013.

For the above to happen, Dow can only zig-zag upwards in the next 3 to 4 months, no more turning back. But do remember the risk factor. For Dow I still can not rule out the possibility that the run since March 2009 has ended.


Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Dow has completed its major wave (5)

At the closing bell of Wednesday session, Dow dropped 105 points (0.7%) to 14,897, moving further away, southwards,  from its lower support line. A 0.7% drop may look ordinary, but the cumulative drop of 761 points  (4.8%) from its peak of 15,658 is too big to be considered as a sub-wave anymore, it has to be part of a higher degree corrective wave, the major wave (6) at best.

This is assuming the drop can stop at the long-term support line as shown below at around 14,000 level for a 10% correction.

The next possibility is the completion of mega wave 1 that has only 5 major waves.

Under this scenario, Dow will punch through its long-term support line and will proceed to either the bottom of major wave (4) at 10655 level for a 30% correction or all the way to the starting point of mega wave 1 at 6,547 level for a 100% retracement :(  The bubble has definitely burst. :(

So, personally my own strategy is to get out and move to the sideline and wait for Dow to tell me whether it is forming its major wave (6), a 10% correction, or it is going to punch through its long-term support and go for a free fall.


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Bursa Malaysia - Where are we ?

While waiting for a verdict from Dow whether the bubble has burst, FBMKLCI of Bursa Malaysia dropped about 33 points (-1.85%) today to close at 1745. The index has formed a small 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern in the process, but within a day it has almost reached its minimum target of 1740.

Looking at the 20-year chart, it is very clear that FBMKLCI's current uptrend since December 2008 is the mega wave (5) and it has completed its major wave 1-2 and wave (i)-(ii)-(iii) of its major wave 3.

Referring to its 2-Year chart, if the index can hold around 1700 level and have a strong rebound, then the current down is the wave c of its wave (iv) of major wave 3 as shown below.

This wave count for FBMKLCI is possible only if Dow can hold around its current level follow by a strong rebound as shown below, the Option 1 scenario.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Dow - Has wave (v) ended ? (Part 2)


First alert - Dow has dropped below its medium term lower resistance line. If Dow can have a strong rebound in the next few days to move back into the upward channel, then we will have a last surge, the sub-wave iii before a higher degree correction takes place.

However, if Dow continues to move lower in the next few days, and if the drop can stop at the long-term lower resistance line at around 14,000 level, then it is the major wave (6) correction, a 10% drop.

If Dow does not stop at 14,000 level, then mega wave 2 has started and ..... the bubble has burst. 


At Best  - Dow has one more rebound, the sub-wave iii.

At Worst -The bubble has burst. Mega wave 2 has started, Dow will either drop by 30% to 11,000 level or it will have a 100% retracement to 6,547 level.

In Between

Major wave (6) correction, a 10% pullback.


Sunday, August 18, 2013

Dow - Has wave (v) ended ?

Dow dropped 370 points (-2.4%) in the last three trading sessions to closed Friday at 15,081 level. The question now is whether the diagonal wave (v) has ended.

Option 1 

If Dow can have a strong rebound in the next few trading sessions, the pullback so far still possible to be the sub-wave ii of wave 5/(v).

The coming rebound will complete the sub-wave iii of wave (v) and possibly the end the major wave (5).

Option 2

However, if Dow continues to move lower in the next few trading sessions, it is likely that wave (v) and major wave (5) has ended as shown below, and the pullback so far is the starting of major wave (6)'s correction.

I am looking at the 14,000 level as the likely support level for major wave (6), a 10% correction.

Option 3

The worst-case scenario is that the mega wave 1 has only 5 waves and it has ended.

In this case, mega wave 2 can go for a 30% to 60% correction, the bubble has finally burst.

Dow's direction next week is crucial, very very crucial.


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Asiapac & Gunung

Slow and steady

Asian Pac Holdings Bhd

Asian Pac gain half a sen with 19 millions shares changed hand today.

It appeared that Asian Pac has completed its wave (ii). Its wave (iii) has started.

Gunung Capital Bhd

After two days of consolidation, Gunung started to climb again with high volume.

It is likely that mini wave 5 of sub-wave iii has started. There is still a long way to go.


Monday, August 12, 2013

Lii Hen Industries Bhd - Inverted Head and Shoulders

Lii Hen has been sitting on its neckline since early June and finally it managed to pull away in the last two trading sessions.

It has formed a very big inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern (2005-2013). From its 2009's bottom, it has completed its major wave 1-2, wave (i)-(ii) and sub-wave i-ii.

After moving up for 4 days from 1.61 to 1.88, it may need to take a two to three days breather before continuing with its sub-wave iii.

Lii Hen's first quarter (January-March 2013) earning is very impressive with 10.43 sens per share. Its net assets per share is Rm2.34. Its second quarter (April-June) earning will be announced before end of August.