Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Uncertainty before and after the General Election

Bursa Malaysia FBMKLCI dropped about 9 points to close Wednesday trading session at 1627.

From its peak this year, the index has dropped about 4%. Many analysts expect the index to drop further in view of the uncertainty in the coming General Election.

So far the index is able to stay within the up-trend channel. 

From the table below, one can conclude that Bursa Malaysia will be wondering in its own world for a while until the election is over. Its direction after the election is another uncertainty.


Monday, January 28, 2013

The Oeko Report - Environmental Evaluation on Lynas LAMP Plant near Kuantan

The tax-payers have to come up with their own money to finance an in-depth study that rightfully should be carried out by the Government before approving the Lynas LAMP plant near Kuantan.

Oeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy institute working for a sustainable future. Founded in 1977, Oeko-Institut is a non-profit association in Germany. They complete approximately 300 projects each year covering the subjects of Chemicals Management and Technology Assessment, Emission and Ambient Pollution Control, Radiation Protection, Nuclear Engineering and many other environment related subjects.

The author of this report is Gerhard Schmidt.

 Findings on the Water Leach and Purification (WLP) waste's radioactive content.

Their opinions on WLP waste re-used

Comments on the Residue Storage Facility (RSF).

On Emissions from the plant.

Click 'Oeko Report' to view the full report.


Friday, January 25, 2013

Dow is OK but Bursa Malaysia may not be OK

Dow is on course to complete its wave (vii) of major wave (5). I see no immediate danger for major world bourses. The next major pullback will take place after the completion of major wave (5).

But Bursa Malaysia may behave differently due to the coming General Election.

The FBMKLCI has a sharp 2.4% drop on Monday and a close to 2% intra-day drop on Tuesday. However buyers were able to keep the index within the up-trend channel as shown below.

In the run-up to the 2008 election, KLCI dropped about 9% from the day of announcement to the last trading day before the election. The index dropped another 11% on the following trading day after BN lost its two-third majority and 5 states. But one has to bear in mind that during that period in 2008, US market and the whole world were in a big bear run. In fact Dow dropped close to 1000 points during the same period when KLCI dropped 20%.

Meanwhile pay attention to the 1620 level, it may not be able to hold when the big boys started another round of unloading. 

Monday, January 21, 2013

Bursa Malaysia KLCI

Bursa Malaysia KLCI dropped sharply today in anticipation of an announcement on the General Election. It dropped 40 points or 2.4% at the close of the trading session.

Despite the sharp drop, the index is able to stay within the uptrend channel.

As long as the index can remain within the channel, my current wave count remains valid. The index is currently forming the mini wave ii of the sub-wave (iii). But once it goes below the lower trend-line and goes lower than 1600 level, I will need to review my current wave count.


Friday, January 18, 2013

Kuchai Developments Bhd

Kuchai Development Bhd is an asset holding company controlled by the super rich Lee Rubber family. During the last quarter of 2010, Kuchai attracted market's attention when it shot from 80 sen to Rm1.72 in less than 3 months.

In October 2010, Dali of Malaysia Finance has written a very good article on Kuchai.
Click 'How Do You View Kuchai Development' for the writeup.

After touching a low of 82 sen in June 2012 to form its second bottom, Kuchai started its new uptrend and it proceeded to complete its wave 1 and 2 before end of 2012. A few days ago, Kuchai managed to break through the neckline of its 'double-bottom' reversal pattern. It closed the week at Rm1.20. the short term target is Rm1.40.

For quarter ending September 2012 its earning per share is 20.9 sen and its net assets per share is Rm2.47. It is important to note that its 20.9 sen quarterly earning was due to 'fair value gain'.


Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Big Blue Marble

If you love this big blue marble, just spare 21 minutes of your for the following video.


Monday, January 14, 2013

Twilight Zone

Two bodyguards dragged her from a car, knocked her unconscious and shot her twice in the head. The killers then wrapped her body in C4 plastic explosives and blew her up, ensuring the foetus was destroyed along with the identity of the father. For good measure, they erased her entry into the country from immigration records.

Click The Story for more.

It is now or never

To get away from the Twilight Zone

Solidarity in London


Saturday, January 12, 2013


Water problems caused by poor planning and management of the water authority has now been turned into a political problem. What a joke.

Basic public utilities such as water and power supply, on the very first place, should not be privatized as they are basic of the basic necessities when reliable and uninterrupted supply to the people is the top priority rather than profit.

For a private company, the priority is different, the emphasis is maximum profit, big paychecks/ bonuses, tall corporate buildings, etc rather than proper system maintenance and continuous system upgrading.

One thing is for sure, the current water shortage is not due to the dry weather, even though a few months back some had attempted to blame it on the weather when the reservoir is full of water.

For the current water shortage, if it is due to system maintenance and operation problems, the operator must be sacked and be replaced. If the authority or Government tried to cover up the issue, they too need to be replaced.

If the current shortage is due to inadequate supply caused by inadequate infrastructure development, this can be confirmed when the newly completed housing area has adequate supply whereas the existing old residential area experiences interruption in supply.

The water supply operator is not supposed to divert water supply meant for the existing residential area to a newly completed area if the infrastructure is inadequate. The basic guideline for the approval of any new housing project is that new project should not be approved if the existing infrastructure is unable to support the new project. However, the new project still can be approved if new water supply infrastructure can be developed concurrently with the new project so that new source of water supply can be ready to meet the new demand. This requires good planning and good management.

So rightfully, with a good Government, there should not be any water shortage, especially in Malaysia when we have around 2.6 meters of rainfall a year and yet we have the statement.


Thursday, January 10, 2013

Email from a friend

How men and women record things in their diaries .......

Wife's Diary:

Tonight, I thought my husband was acting weird.

We had made plans to meet at a nice restaurant for dinner. I was shopping with my friends all day long, so I thought he was upset at the fact that I was a bit late, but he made no comment on it.

I asked him what was wrong. He said, "Nothing". I asked him if it was my fault that he was upset. He said he wasn't upset and not to worry about it.

On the way home, I told him that I loved him. He smiled slightly and kept driving. I can't explain his behavior. I don't know why he didn't say, "I love you too". 

When we got home, I felt as if I had lost him completely, as if he wanted nothing to do with me anymore. He just sat there quietly and watch TV. Finally, with silence all around us, I decided to go to bed.

About 15 minutes later, he came to bed. But I still felt that he was distracted and his thoughts were somewhere else. He fell asleep. I cried, I don't know what to do. I'm almost sure that his thoughts are with someone else. My life is a disaster.

Husband's Diary:

A two-foot putt......... who the hell misses a two-foot putt.


Monday, January 7, 2013

Dow - No immediate danger

With the Federal Reserve pumping US$85 billions a month into the economy, the money will ultimately go into commodities, stocks and real estate, Dow should have little problem in completing its major wave (5) in 2013.

Dow has completed its sub-wave i-ii in December 2012 and is currently forming its sub-wave iii of wave (vii). Wave (vii) is projected to end around 13,800 level to be followed by a 6% wave (viii) pullback.

For 2013, the first three quarters is theoretically safe if the 6% wave (viii) pullback can be considered as not so damaging.

Upon completion of major wave (5) in the 4th quarter of 2013, the next question to ask is whether the mega wave 1 (inside the red box) has ended.

If mega wave 1 has only 5 waves, be prepared for Dow to plunge to its 2009's low of 6547 for a mega wave 2's 100% retracement, a possible worst case scenario.

However, if mega wave 1 has 9 waves, due to the positive outcome of the US$85 billions a month injection, Dow will go for a 13% to 15% correction for its major wave (6) pullback before continuing its major wave (7) run.

I always believe, when Dow can hold, the rest of the markets should be able to hold unless there is political unrest, state of emergency or other major financial disaster in a particular market.


Sunday, January 6, 2013

FBMKLCI - Just an academic exercise

The Bursa Malaysia composite index has been setting new record highs lately but there is no trace of bullishness and no mass participation in the market. The current market sentiment is so much different from those record breaking days in the 1993/94 bull-run when trading was euphoric and prices of stocks were being chased irrationally to unrealistic levels. 
Since the Dow has no immediate danger, our composite index may have more record breaking on the way but trading may remain 'boring' with no mass participation.

Back to the wave count - just an academic exercise.

As shown in the 20-year chart above, starting from the 1998's low of 262, the composite index has completed its major wave (I), (II), (III), (IV) and wave 1-2 of its major wave (V) before end of 2011.

For the whole of 2012, it completed its sub-wave (i)-(ii) of wave 3 of its major wave (V). The latest surge can be the starting of its sub-wave (iii) of wave 3. It should be bullish with high volume but there is no sign so far except 'boring, boring & boring tradings'.

Looking at the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet as shown below, I don't feel comfortable and I don't know what sort of bubble is being created and when it will burst.

Courtesy of


Thursday, January 3, 2013

Dow - On course to complete its wave (vii)

Dow gained 308 points or 2.35% to close at 13,412 on the first trading day of 2013. Dow is likely to complete its wave (vii) at around 13,800 level.

With the Federal Reserve pumping US$80 billions a month into the economy, it is hard for stocks, commodities and real estate to come down. Can the global economic problems be solved by endless printing of money? Can a country solve her debt problems by borrowing more money? I think a super bubble is in the making.


Tuesday, January 1, 2013

2012 World Champion - Malaysia

Happy New Year
Finally we are the Champion

Responds from nearly 3,000 executives from 30 countries

Courtesy of Transparency International

"Japan was ranked as the world's least-corrupt place to do business, with just 2% of respondents saying they had lost out due to bribery."

"Singapore was second-cleanest, which was at 9%."

Click 'Hindustantimes' for details. 

Alamak !!!