Sunday, June 28, 2015

Weekly Update

Dow (17,946)

My reading remained the same for Dow, it is heading for either a 12% major wave (6) correction or a 42% to 64% mega wave 2 correction. I give major wave (6) a higher probability because my date for the assets bubble to burst is in early 2017 as I have explained in my older posts months ago.

As anything is possible in stocks I still have to keep an eye on the less possible mega wave 2 correction.

FBMKLCI (1,710)

If this is the wave (ii) of major wave 5 correction, then 1673 level is the worst that it can go, which is a 100% retracement to the starting point of its wave (i). Wave (ii) will need more time to complete as the down leg so far is only the wave a of (ii).

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.75)
Waiting for major wave 4 to complete.

Looking at the 6-month chart, there is a possibility that major wave 4 is completed.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.52)
Is the wave 2 correction completed ? This is the main question.

It depends whether it will move higher or lower next week. If it comes down, then it will be the wave c of 2.

If it moves higher next week, then that will be the mini wave 3 of iii of 3, which has an unmistakable character of 'very dynamic with high volume'.

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.25)
Waiting for wave (iv) to complete.

First possibility - wave (iv) is completed, wave (v) has started.

Possibility 2 - Forming wave b of (iv).

Possibility 3 - Forming wave v of a of (iv).


Friday, June 26, 2015

Beh Ta Han

Some Malaysian they are not worried about this

And this
They are more concerned about this

and this
Beh Ta Han

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Dow - I am still thinking of major (6) or mega 2

Dow (18,015)

Mini-wave 2, a-b-c is completed. Is Dow going for its mini wave 3 drop ? This will be confirmed if Dow moves lower than mini-wave 1.

However, I will be proved completely wrong and will have to revise my wave count if Dow moves higher next week and goes for new record high like Nasdaq.

FBMKLCI (1,721)

KLCI continued with its mini-wave 5 last week, it has been dragging for over a month. A technical rebound may come anytime. The rebound can either be a 30 points mini-wave 6 or a higher magnitude wave b rebound.

Ringgit Continued to drop

The Ringgit set another new low last week. Against the British Pound, it has dropped from Rm 4.80 to a pound many months ago to last week almost Rm 5.90 to a Pound. I really feel the pain having my holiday in London. A bowl of Vietnamese pork noodle is costing me Rm 47.00 (8 Pound).

But dollar to dollar things are cheap in London except restaurant foods.

With a one-pound coin, A few days ago, I bought a freshly baked 12-inch tiger bread, a croissant that is still hot, just came out from the oven and a mini baguette and I still have 6-pence left.


The quality of bread here is very good. I think most likely they have good quality flour over here. My wife has decided to bring some flour back to KL, she has a bread maker back home.


Saturday, June 13, 2015

Dow - Major wave (6) or mega wave 2 ?

Dow (17,898)

Dow dropped 140 points (-0.78%) on Friday to close at 17,898 level.

The main question now is whether the current correction is the major wave (6), a 12% correction to around 16,117 level,

Or it is a mega wave 2 with a minimum  correction of 42% to 10,655 level and a maximum correction of 64%, which is a 100% retracement of mega wave 1, to its starting point at 6,547 level.

This is my interpretation for Dow at this moment and I would like to emphasize that there is always this possibility that my technical interpretation could be wrong.
It is always good to have a look at what the Gurus have said once in a while.
Marc Faber : Stocks are about to fall 40% at least.
30th April, 2015 - 
"For the last two years, I have been thinking that U.S. stocks are due for a correction ........"
"But I always say a bubble is a bubble, and if there is no correction, the market will go up and one day it will go down, big time."
"The market is in a position where it's not just going to be a 10% correction. Maybe it first goes up a bit further, but when it comes, it will be 30% or 40% minimum."
Despite his massively bearish call, Faber said he is "not short the market yet," since he doesn't know how high stocks could go in the interim.
Robert Prechter : Stock Market at High Risk of Collapse.
10th June, 2015 -
"If the cycle is still operating, the stock market is at high risk of a sharp collapse,"
"Near-term, we are prepared to see the Dow make one more high. But it doesn't have to happen."
Peter Schiff : The Real Earthquake is about to hit.
30th December 2014 -
Quote from Wall Street Daily, "Don't try to praise bestselling author, Peter Schiff, for accurately predicting the 2008/2009 financial crisis. That is, because in his opinion, that financial crisis wasn't the REAL crash ....... it was only a tremor before the big one hit."
Nouriel Roubini : 'Liquidity time bomb' will eventually 'Trigger a bust and a collapse'.
1st June, 2015 -
"As more investors pile into overvalued, increasingly illiquid assets, the risk of a long-term crash increases. Market illiquidity will eventually trigger a bust and collapse."

Thursday, June 11, 2015

The choice can be clearer in GE 14

When an ultra-right-wing Malay based party decided to work with an ultra-conservative-Islamist Malay based party, the choice becomes clearer.

"In GE 12 and GE 13 we saw the dividing line taking shape along the rural and urban boundaries, the UMNO-PAS marriage would further cement this divide ......... "

"The choice is now clear. Do you want an ultra-conservative-Islamist Malaysia? Or do you want a moderate and liberal Malaysia tied to the constitution and good governance?"

Clik 'Pas-Umno Marriage' for the article from Art Harun.


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

The Sound of Music

Let's start at the very beginning
A very good place to start

Click 'Do Rei Me' for more.


Tuesday, June 9, 2015

FBMKLCI - Short term bearish, long term bullish.

FBMKLCI (1,729)

KLCI continues to drop together with Ringgit with 1MDB and UMNO power struggle as the backdrop. Very soon we will be seeing Rm3.00 to Singapore $1.00.

Mini wave 5 is about there, but I am not sure whether the next rebound is mini wave 6 or a higher degree wave b of (ii).

Wave (ii) has a possible low of 1,673, the starting point of wave (i). KLCI has completed its major wave 4 in December 2014 and is currently on its major wave 5.

I am expecting the major wave (5) to last until early 2017 with new record high.


Monday, June 8, 2015

Dow - Going for 12% correction.

Dow (17,766)

Dow dropped another 83 points (-0.46%) at the end of Monday trading, on course to form its major wave (6).

So far Dow has dropped about 3% from its peak of 18,312. There is another 9% to go.

If I am expecting Dow to go to 16100 level, whatever FBMKLCI is forming, it won't be good in the near future especially with the 1MDB fiasco unfolding and the power struggle in UMNO.

But FBMKLCI is bullish in longer term until early 2017, that is what I have been thinking.

As mentioned in my previous post, the current pullback for KLCI is its wave (ii) correction and it is very likely to go for 100% retracement of its wave (i).

Sunday, June 7, 2015

RHS Chelsea Flower Show, London.