Friday, April 29, 2011

Dow - Where are we now?

Dollar Index dropped below the 73 level early in the morning.
Bernanake in the Wednesday press conference still maintained that his aggressive money printing action was to control inflation, strengthen the dollar and to promote job growth. I simply cannot understand his logic.

On a more optimistic wave count, I maintained that Dow is at the tail-end of wave b of the mega wave 6 as shown above. The next wave c is likely to bring Dow back to 2009's low of 6,547 or lower.

Dow is on its way to complete its sub-wave 7. If sub-wave 9 is missing, which is possible to happen at a major turning point. Wave b will end at sub-wave 7. Dow will turn down together with Nasdaq that has only 5 waves as shown in my previous post.

A more pessimistic wave count as shown below is to treat 2007 October's peak as the end of the super wave (III). March 2009 low is wave 1, Dow is at the tail-end of wave 2, the next down to 6,547 or lower is the wave 3 of major wave A. I am expecting a A-B-C-D-E super wave (IV).

The last surge is usually very tempting but very dangerous.


Thursday, April 28, 2011

Be Careful

Happy Birthday, Boy.

sub-wave iii of wave 5 is approaching its upper resistance. End of wave 5 provide another possible ending point for the mega wave B. Be careful.

Received this video from my friend,
the Latin love song, Malaguena Salerosa is beautiful.

The same song by Nana Mouskouri gives me a different feeling

What beautiful eyes you have,
beneath those two eyebrows
They love to watch me
but if you don’t let them,
not even to blink.
Graceful MalagueƱan.

I long to kiss your lips,
and to tell you, beautiful girl,

that you are stunning and bewitching,
like the pureness of a rose.

If, for being poor, you look down on me,
I agree you are right,

I don’t offer you riches.
I offer you my heart,
in exchange for what I lack.

Another rendition by Trio Los Panchos is similarly beautiful


Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Keep an eye on these

Continues to slide
Bearish for US$ and Treasury Bond


Possible last journey

This is very bearish, click Final Red Alert

Nice Shopping Bags


Monday, April 25, 2011

Kick Lynas back to Australia

Why take the trouble to transport the rare earth material over 4,000km, all the way from Australia to Kuantan for processing ?????

Victim of Radioactivity, Bukit Merah

The Lynas Advanced Material Plant (LAMP) is scheduled to open in the Gebeng Industrial Estate, in Pahang, this September.

"When completed, the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant will be a first-class rare earths processing facility which incorporates state-of-the-art technology and sets new benchmarks in safety, environmental performance and shared value across the supply chain for a sustainable future."

Curtis,"I firmly believe that the best people to run the plant in Malaysia are Malaysian."
Sure lah Life here is cheap and no Australian wants to work in this refinery.

"People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."


Sunday, April 24, 2011

Looking for possible ending point for major wave B

Dow closed the week at 12,505. It has gained 5,958 points or 91% since its March 2009's low. I still believe that the 6,547 low is major wave A and the rebound since then is major wave B and Dow is at the tail end of B.

There is no way for me to know the exact ending point of B. But one things is for sure I should not have any long-term holding on stocks and any buying is for very very short term to test chart theory and chart reading skill.

Looking at Nasdaq and assuming Dow and Nasdaq will move in tandem, there is a likely ending point for major wave B in May at around 2,900 for Nasdaq.

Since wave (iii) must have 5 waves, so far Nasdaq has a short sub-wave 1, long sub-wave 3 with 5 mini waves and I am expecting a short sub-wave 5 similar to that of sub-wave 1. With a possible small wedge formation for sub-wave 5, major wave B has a possibility to complete its journey within 2 weeks. Must be very careful as sub-wave 5 unfolds in the next two weeks.

Priceworth International Bhd

Priceworth has a very bullish long-term chart formation of (I)-(II), (1)-(2), 1-2 with a lower and a higher degree 'double bottoms' formation, if my reading is right. Let's see whether it is going to have a vertical up for its 3.


Saturday, April 23, 2011

Metal prices reaching for the ceiling

Gold rose to a new all-time high of $1512.50, before closing at $1507.00 on Friday

Silver moved up again Friday to $46.68 in light holiday trading. Another fresh 31-year high. It put on 350% since 2008's low. It looked like a bubble to me.

Copper has also put on 200% since its 2008's Low

It appeared that more investors are moving out of US dollar and rushing into precious metals. A sign of losing confidence in US dollar and concerns over global inflation and political uncertainty.

US dollar index has moved up twice since its early 2008 bottom of around 72. The first surge in 2008 was the old believe that in time of crisis go for US dollar. The second surge was due to the European debt crisis and the weakening of Euro and Pound. But since mid 2010, the world started to look at US dollar from a different perspective. Debts problem has not improved, Dow has been going up, political situation in Africa and Middle East has not improved but US dollar continues to slide helped by the money printing of Federal Reserve.

Crude oil and Corn are expected to move higher as the dollar slides

Soybean and wheat that are lagging behind the rest are expected to move higher at a faster rate.

Looking at all the above charts, especially that of CRB and the metals, I don't really feel comfortable about the markets.

Rare Earth Refinery at Gebang Kuantan

1) Lynas is expecting an operating license from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board before September 2011.
2) The plant is 25km away from densely populated Kuantan
3) Thorium in the radioactive waste has a half-life of 14.05 billion years
4) Lynas will be getting 12 years tax exemption for its operation. (that produces radioactive waste)
5) The plant will creat only 350 jobs.
6) 2 MCA members visited Lynas mining site in Australia and have supported Lynas application.
7) Lynas has obtained approval for the land purchase and the building construction except the operation license.
8) No country including Australia wants this type of industry except Malaysia.
9) Less tourist will go to Kuantan and all the beach resorts from Kuantan to Gebang including Club Med.
10) Other owners of existing plants and factories may relocate their premises to somewhere else.