Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Is soybean price on its way down?

Baltic Dry Index dropped another 24 points to 702 on Monday, 39 points away from December 2008's low of 663. Declining demand for shipping can be one of the reason for the sharp decline since October since 2011. The economy slow down in Europe and China may help to pull down commodity prices and lower the food prices, a good new for the poor.

Soybeans price has been declining since August 2011. Once the price drops below 1100 level it may retest the December 2008's low of 777 to complete its major wave C.

When soybeans drop, I would expect the CPO price to drop in tandem. It is possible that the current surge in the prices of the plantation stocks is the last surge before a major pullback. I am assuming the Dow will complete its wave 2 rebound in February 2012.


Sunday, January 29, 2012

I wouldn't be happy to be right.

Soros, a single investor that broke the Bank of England and reduced the value of pound by one-fifth in a single day, on 'Black Wednesday' in 1992.

For the first time in his 60-year career, Soros, admits he is not sure what to do. "It's very hard to know how you can be right, given the damage that was done during the boom years."

"We are facing an extremely difficult time, comparable in many ways to the 1930s, the Great Depression ......"

"The tragedy of our current situation is the unintended consequence of imperfect understanding. A lot of people in the financial system did a lot of damage without intending to."

Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicted riots .......

"The best-case scenario is a deflationary environment, the worst-case scenario is a collapse of the financial system."

He is now more concerned with surviving than staying rich, "At times like these, survival is the most important thing."

Click The Daily Beast for more.

If Greece defaulted but the Euro survived, the scenario will not be that pessimistic. A more optimistic wave count is as shown below. Dow could complete its major wave C at around its March 2009's low of 6,547 to complete the mega wave 6.

However, if there is a complete collapsed of the Global economic system, it is possible that the October 2007's peak is the end of mega wave 5 of super wave (III). Since the 2007's peak, Dow is in the process of completing its mega wave A of its super wave (IV). Looking at the possible 'head and Shoulders' formation, mega wave A could go much lower than the March 2009's low of 6,547. Very pessimistic indeed.


Saturday, January 28, 2012

Oh my God !!!

Aiyohyoh 6-3, 6-0

So one sided

Anyway Azarenka played very well
A deserved winner
World No. 1 Now


Friday, January 27, 2012

Azarenka Vs Sharapova

Australia Open Tennis Championships 2012

Women's Single Final

Saturday January 28




The first time I saw Sharapova's tennis was in 2004 when she captured her first Grand Slam, the Wimbledon Women's Single Title at 17. She defeated Serena William in the final.

Since then, I have been her follower. She played very well in the current tournament but she has serious problem with her serve. In her last semi-final match with Kvitova, she has 10 Double Faults and without a single Ace.

Just hope that she can serve well and win the final tomorrow.


Thursday, January 26, 2012

Just wait and see

It really caught me by surprise that the wave 2 of major wave C can drag for so long.

Mini wave (iii) simply refused to end, it has formed 9 minute waves so far. After the completion of mini wave (iii), mini wave (iv) and (v) can easily take another 2 to 3 weeks.

I am looking for a 100% retracement for wave 2 as shown below.

However if it can close above 12,810 and continue to pull away I will have to abandon the above wave count and see where is my mistake.

Bursa Malaysia

Plantation stocks were very strong in the last three trading days on expectation of good 4th quarter (Oct 2011 - Dec 2011) earning due to be announced in February 2012. Current CPO price is about Rm3100/mt.

In the 2008 bear market for stocks, CPO price dropped from Rm 3650 to Rm1550. Similar to the stock indices, it rebounded in 3 waves to Rm3800 by February 2011. Since then it has dropped in 5 mini waves to Rm2870 by October 2011 before rebounded to the current price of around Rm3100. It may move to Rm 3200+ by next month, however if Dow started its wave 3 of major wave C, I expect the CPO price to move down together with the stock markets.

Similar to Dow, CPO price is currently forming its wave 2 of major wave C.

As I have mentioned earlier, if Dow can stay above 12,810 and move higher, I expect the CPO price to move higher in tandem with the Dow as shown below. One may ask why the corrective wave 4 has 5 sub-waves?

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Happy Chinese New Year

Courtesy of www.chinahighlights.com

CLSA Feng Sui Chart for 2012 stock market.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a daily average of prices to ship raw material, has dropped to a 3-year low of 862, about 200 points above the December 2008's low of 663. The drop is due to a supply glut of carriers and a slowdown in demand. Carriers that were ordered in 2007/2008 when BDI was well above 10,000 are starting to be completed by shipyards. These new fleet of carriers is expected to increase the total carrier capacity by close to 20%. Raw material demand has been slowing down due to recession in Europe and economy slowdown in China.


Friday, January 20, 2012

Youth Unemployment Rate

5 unemployed Moroccan men set themselves on fire yesterday (January 18) over the lack of jobs especially for university graduates. Graduate unemployment rate in Morocco is about 16%.

In December 2010, a young vegetable seller set himself on fire to protest against police harassment . The police confiscated his vegetable cart for selling without license. He was slapped and spat upon. The fire also burnt the anger of the entire Tunisian population into starting the Jasmine Revolution.

In Europe, the current youth unemployment rate is at record high.

Spain is fast approaching 50%. Greece is about 45%. Ireland, Italy and Portugal are about 30%. France is heading for 25%. With recession and further austerity drive and near zero or negative GDP growth. I expect more violent in Europe this year especially with high food prices.

Europe cannot be good in 2012.

In US, the finance sector is very bad. Goldman Sachs's 2011 earning dropped 67%, Bank of America earning fell 53% and Morgan Stanley's income down by 42%, despite of cheap money from QE1 and QE2. Federal Reserve may have no choice but to print more money.


Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Quantitative Easing 3

Courtesy of www.newsdag.com

QE3 has already begun in Europe.

Click 'New York Post' to read.

European Central Bank has started to tap the Fed for very cheap money.
In fact on 21st December, ECB has put some of this money to work and lent out 489 billion euros to 523 Europe's weakest, most overleveraged and most desperate banks for a full three years.

Jonathon Trugman,"Essentially, we just bailed out Europe's banking system."

Brittany Stepniak,"Although Quantitative Easing technically involves the process of printing money, it's essentially just printing paper that looks and acts like money."

Fed is using these papers in his 'Dollar swaps' with ECB

For the 523 banks, all their problems vaporized. They can now borrow money from ECB at the current prime interest rate of 1%, they can use the money to buy say Italian bonds that pay around 5%. They can then deposit these bonds at ECB as security and borrow more money at 1%. Their next quarterly result is sure to improve provided Italy and other problem nations do not default on their debts obligation that could plunge the eurozone into further financial choas.

Courtesy of www.re-define.org


Monday, January 16, 2012



Sunday, January 15, 2012

Dow - wave 2 just dragged on.

One possibility is as shown above where mini wave (iii) has completed, if mini wave (iv) takes one week and mini wave (v) takes another week, that will complete the sub-wave iii and wave 2. I will then expect wave 3 to start.


Friday, January 13, 2012

Assets Declaration by state Exco members

The declaration is accessible at www.penang.gov.my

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said the state Exco members, who hold positions of public trust, believed that the public has the right to demand accountability from them.

"For the first time in Malaysian history, the public declaration of assets was conducted not by the state government but by an independent audit company," said Lim.

Mohd Arshad Raji, "If CM Lim Guan Eng has the courage to order his Exco members to declare their personal assets, why can't PM Najib do it to all his ministers, deputy ministers and secretaries?"

"It takes a Chinese CM to do what a Malay CM or PM should be doing all along."

To read more click 'Mind No Evil'.

Soap from Florence, Organic & Handmade
And it smells really goooood

Persimmon Gelato, Italian Ice-cream


Thursday, January 12, 2012

Reality of 21st Century Britain

Quote :
In London Muslims may gather and scream "Death to those who insult Islam!" with impunity. But a non-Muslim who objects to the spread of sharia may be arrested, charged, convicted, fined and slapped with an Anti-Social Behavior Order (ASBO) forbidding him from taking part in any activist events for several years.

Click 'Ned May' to read

In Australia, it is a different story.

Julia Gillard,"Immigrants, not Australian, must adapt. Take it or leave it."

Click 'Silents Speech' for more.


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Who planted the explosive ?

The very moment I heard about this news of time activated home made bomb explosions at Jalan Duta Court Complex during the "Free Anwar" gathering, I have only one conclusion. And I believed many were having the same conclusion except those whose memory remains in ............ Lat's Cartoon.

Click 'Here' to read.


Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Dow - 2 crucial weeks in front

Dow gained about 100 points (0.8%) after 30 minutes of trading. This surge can be the small wave 5 of the mini wave (iii). Mini wave (iv) and (v) will take another 10 days, after the Chinese New year, wave 3 of major wave C should begin, if I am right and I hope I am right.

If the wave 2 of major wave C reaches 12810, it will form a 'double tops' reversal pattern.

Optical Illusion

The floor of a computer software shop in Paris. It is perfectly flat.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Euro is dying. The decline has begun

George Soros was quoted as saying in the south Indian city of Hyderabad yesterday (Friday)

"A collapse of the Euro and break-up of the European Union would have catastrophic consequences for the global financial system".

"The crisis is more serious and more threatening than the crash of 2008".

"Unfortunately, they haven't yet solved the acute financial crisis and that is causing the situation to deteriorate and it is not at all clear it will have a solution".

A pessimistic article on Euro, click " The decline has begun" to read.

A song from Nana Mouskouri that I can listen again and again and again.


Friday, January 6, 2012

Teresa Teng

Just feel like listening to Teresa's Song tonight


Thursday, January 5, 2012

Dow - Tail End of wave 2

Dow has mini wave (iv) and (v) to go before completing its wave 2 rebound, which is expected to end in January.

Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index is forming its sub-wave c of wave 2. Hopefully it can end by December 2012.

Plantation sector looked very strong lately. My wave count for Plantation Index is as shown below.

It appeared to me that mini-wave (v) of sub-wave V is about to end soon The current 'up' is likely to be the last surge unless sub-wave V has 9 mini-waves.

Very very interesting, click HERE to read.