Thursday, March 30, 2017

趙雷 - 畫

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

FBMKLCI - Expected to drop in tandem with Dow

FBMKLCI (1,750)

If the wave (v) of Dow  has only five sub-waves and major wave 7 is going to end in May and is going to be followed by major wave 8 correction that is going to drop 15% or 3,300 points, I would expect KLCI to plunge in tandem with Dow.

The only way for KLCI to drop in tandem with Dow in May is to revise my previous wave count for KLCI to the wave form shown below - a mega wave (6) formation.

Mega wave (5) is a failure wave with major wave 5 missing and has ended in July 2014. Since then KLCI has been forming wave A-B-C of its mage wave (6). Wave B is expected to be completed in May in tandem with Dow's completion of its major wave 7.  Wave C of KLCI will be in tandem with Dow's major wave 8 correction with a 15% drop.

If the current KLCI's wave (iii) of B's run-up can end at say 1820 level, a 15% drop will bring KLCI to around 1,550 level to complete the wave C of its mega wave (6).  I expect KLCI's diagonal mega wave (7)-(8)-(9) to coincide with Dow's major wave 9 run-up, the last surge to complete Dow's mega wave VII at around 31,000 level as mentioned in my 21st February 2017's article, before the mega wave VIII correction (40% to 60% drop) takes place.

KLCI is about to complete its mini wave 7. It will complete its wave (iii) and B in May.

Please bear in mind that wave form can change as it progresses with times. I don't rule out the slim possibility that by May, instead of confirming the 15% drop, the chart is painting a different picture. Same words - anything can happen in stock market.


Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Dow - Sell in May and go away

Dow (20,701)

Dow added 150 points (+0.73%) on Tuesday. It appeared to me that sub-wave v has started. If I take its magnitude to be the same as that of sub-wave iii, 22,000 is the target.

If wave (v) has only five sub-waves, very likely the major wave 7 is going to end in May, approximately another 28 trading days to go before the major wave 8 correction begins, a 15% pullback. From 22,000, the drop is about 3,300 points to 18,700 level.

I guess all major world markets are likely to move in tandem with Dow for a 10% to 20% pullback depending on the resilience or strength of each individual market.


Monday, March 27, 2017

Gadang - Price projection

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.27)

Gadang is on the last journey of its major wave 3, assuming this major wave 3 has only five waves, wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v).

Since wave (i) and wave (iii) gained 120% and 72% respectively, by assuming wave (v) to have the same magnitude (%) as wave (iii) of 72%, my target for wave (v) is Rm 1.54, PROVIDE wave (v) doesn't fail and it can complete its whole journey.

For major wave 3 to end at Rm1.54, from its starting price of Rm 0.46, the gain is 235% which is smaller than the magnitude of major wave 1 of 280%. There is this possibility that major wave 3 might consist of nine waves instead of five. But it is better not to talk about this (too bullish) until there is sign that major wave 3 is heading for nine waves.

If I assumed major wave 5 has the same magnitude as major wave 3 (235% gain), major wave 5 can end at Rm 3.00.

From the 6-month chart, we can see that Gadang is forming its sub-wave viii that has another 2 to 3 candlesticks to go. If it is well behaved, and can hold above Rm 1.24, sub-wave ix should begin latest by Friday. If sub-wave ix has about the same magnitude (20% gain) as sub-wave vii (provided no failure), the target is Rm 1.50, which is quite close to my earlier projection of Rm 1.54.

What happen if Gadang continues to go lower and lower this week and next week and week after next? In stock, anything is possible. This can happen.

It only means Gadang has a failure wave (v) with sub-wave ix missing, and major wave 3 has already ended, forming a double-top reversal pattern.

So, run for your life if sub-wave ix is missing.


Saturday, March 25, 2017

Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 48.10)

If crude oil can move higher in the next few weeks from its current level, then the wave c of (iv) will be able to last until end of 2017.

But if crude oil price fails to rebound and continues to move lower in the next few weeks, the moment it moves below US$43.00, it is confirmed that February high is the wave (iv) and March's candlestick is the first candlestick for wave (v) of C. Crude oil WTI is likely to go below US$25.00 a barrel.

Dow (20,596)

Very likely Dow is forming the sub-wave iv of its wave (v).

FBMKLCI (1,745)

KLCI forming mini wave 8.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.91)

EG Forming its major wave 5.

Short-term it is forming the mini wave 2 of sub-wave v.

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.27)

Gadang is forming its wave (v) of 3.

Current correction is the sub-wave viii of wave (v).

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 2.02)

Inari is on course to complete its wave (iii).

1st possibility - Last Thursday's surge and Friday's pullback is the minor wave i-ii of mini wave 5. Too bullish.

2nd possibility - Sub-wave i has ended.

3rd possibility - Wave (iii) has ended. It will move side way for a few weeks to complete its wave (iv).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.905)

Insas is forming the major wave 3 of its mega wave (5).

A bullish scenario - The current correction is the mini wave 2 of its sub-wave iii.

A less bullish scenario - It has completed its sub-wave iii and is forming its sub-wave iv.


Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Dow - Any danger ?

Dow (20,668)

Dow dropped 237 points (-1.14%) on Tuesday. Since October 2016, Dow has never dropped more than 1%. This is the biggest one day drop in 2017. Any danger? My answer is NO.

With this drop, I have no choice but to revise my wave count by pushing one small wave to sub-wave ii, making it an expanding a-b-c-d-e sub-wave ii as shown. With this adjustment I have two most likely alternative wave counts depending on Dow's movement in the next few days.

First alternative is a more bullish mini wave 2 for the current correction. Mini wave 2 is expected to be completed within one or two days. The next up-wave is the 3 of iii of (v).

The second alternative is a less bullish higher degree sub-wave iv correction. The next rebound will be the wave b of iv. Dow will go side way for a longer period before the sub-wave v starts to run.

The next major correction is the major wave 8, which is expected to be about 15%. If major wave 7 can reach 23,000, a 15% correction can mean a 3,450 points drop.


Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Inari & Insas

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 1.97)

Inari moved up strongly today with higher volume today, gaining 4 sens to close at Rm 1.97. It should move higher in the next few weeks to complete its mini wave 5, which can either be the end of its sub-wave i or its wave (iii).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.94)

Hopefully Insas can move up in tandem with Inari, since it has 402 million shares of Inari or 0.6 share of Inari per Insas share.

In my previous posting, I was assuming the magnitude of mini wave 5 of sub-wave iii to be the same as that of mini wave 1. But if Insas were to move higher from its present level in tandem with Inari, then the magnitude of mini wave 5 is more likely to be the same as that of mini wave 3. This is similar to the wave form of its sub-wave i.

Under this scenario, mini wave 5 is likely to reach Rm 1.04 level, another 10 sens to go.


Saturday, March 18, 2017

FBMKLCI -1820 Minimum target for wave (iii)

Dow (20,914)

Dow is forming its mini wave 5 of sub-wave iii.

FBMKLCI (1,745)

One more down and one more up to complete sub-wave iii.

If wave (iii) has the same magnitude (%) as wave (i), gaining 12.4%, wave (iii) can have a minimum target of 1,820.

However, if wave (iii) is the extended wave, it can gain 1.618x12.4%, which is 20%. Wave (iii) can go as high as 1950 before the next wave (iv) correction that can be quite sharp within short duration.

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.30)

Gadang is likely to end its wave (v) at around Rm 1.60 level. At this moment it is on its minor wave v.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.915)

EG is expected to move higher next week to complete its minor wave iii, iv and v of sub-wave v of wave (i).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.92)

The two green candlesticks have ruled out the second scenario mentioned in my previous post. The very bullish first scenario is confirmed. Next week can witness the mini wave 2 correction. After that the next up can be very powerful, the mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3.

With this confirmation of fist scenario, I noticed on Friday that investors have rushed into buying Insas Warrant-B as reflected in the high volume of 30 millions share as compared to the daily average of 2 millions. The warrant gained 13.2% (+3.5 sens) whereas Insas gained only 1.6% (+1.5 sens). Please remember that the warrant is still 'out of money' as the conversion price is Rm 1.00 and Insas price is only Rm 0.915 on Friday.

Why rushing into the warrant ?

Because once it is confirmed that Insas is on scenario 1, the ultimate minimum target for Insas is Rm 1.80. If conversion price for Warrant-B is Rm1.00, assuming a 10 sens premium (current premium is 38 sens), warrant price can reach 90 sens. From its current 30 sens, the gain will be 60 sens, which is +200%. Whereas for Insas, from its current price of 92 sens to Rm 1.80, the gain is 88 sens, which is only +95%.

With a capital of Rm9,200, investor can buy 10,000 Insas. On reaching Rm 1.80, the profit is Rm8,800. But the same Rm9,200 can buy 30,000 Warrant-B. When Insas is Rm1.80, assuming the price for Warrant-B is Rm0.90, the profit is Rm17,800.

Please remember, higher return means higher risk. When the unexpected happened and market collapsed, it is disastrous to hold warrant.

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.335)

Leesk's long term chart looked very bullish. It has an inverted 'head & shoulder' formation with the 'head' forming a 'double bottom'. It has started to form its major wave 5.

With minimum target of 'one-length H' up, possible target is Rm 0.70.


Friday, March 17, 2017

Chingon - Malagueña Salerosa

Thursday, March 16, 2017

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.935)

EG has a strong candlestick today with moderate volume. It appeared to me that EG has completed its sub-wave iv correction with a failure wave c.

Very likely sub-wave v has started.

EG still has a long way to go to complete its major wave 5. Hopefully it can be completed within the next 6 to 7 months.


Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.89)

Very likely the last two days of consolidation is the minor wave iv. Insas may stay at the current level for another day or two before moving higher again to form its minor wave v of its sub-wave iii.

The extreme high volume is a typical wave iii of iii of (iii) of 3 scenario.

Looking at the 10-year chart, Insas is on its sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3 of mega wave (5).

In stock, anything can happen. Even though this is unlikely, but if Insas is unable to hold at its current level and start to move lower in the next few days to around 82 sens level, then  Insas is forming its wave (iv).

This scenario is possible but unlikely because of the high volume in the last few days. Wave b can never have the highest volume.

Hopefully this second scenario can be ruled out by Friday. All I need is another surge to above 93 sens to confirm the very bullish first scenario.


Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Ken Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.90)

Ken is a property developer and is also a contractor for marine and civil engineering works. Is last 4 quarterly earnings are 2.13, 2.32, 4.75 and 6.26 sens a share. Net assets per share is Rm 1.42.

From its long term chart (20-year), one can see that Ken has completed its mega wave (1)-(2), major wave 1-2-3-4.

From its 12-month chart, It appeared to me that Ken has completed its major wave 4 in January 2017. The February high 93 sens is likely to be its sub-wave i. It is possible that it has completed its sub-wave ii and is ready to begin its sub-wave iii of wave (i) of its major wave 5.

A very thinly traded counter.