Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Jupiter, Scorpius and Sagittarius

At this time of the year, after 9pm at night, Jupiter can be seen at around 60 degrees above the southern horizon. Below Jupiter is the bright red star Antares of the Scorpius Constellation.

Scorpius Constellation is the most prominent and easily recognizable constellation.

To the east of Jupiter is Sagittarius, a fine group of stars in a rich part of the Milky Way. Part of the constellation is often known as the Milk Dipper because of its shape and because it is in the Milky Way. The handle is in the milk and not the dipper part. Sagittarius was a Centaur, half horse half man, and an archer.


Sunday, July 28, 2019

Weekly update

Dow (27,192)

Dow continued to hover below the upper trend-line last week waiting for next Wednesday's decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rate.

If Dow is on its wave E, it will continue to move lower despite the rate cut.

USD/MYR (4.1195)

The question now is whether USD/MYR has completed its wave ii of C. If it has completed its wave ii, USD/MYR will continue to move lower to below 4.00 in forming the mini wave 3 of its wave iii.

However if it has yet to complete its wave ii, very likely it is forming the mini wave 2 of ii at this moment. Under this scenario, USD/MYR may move higher to 4.39 to form a 'head and shoulder' reversal pattern before starting its wave iii to go below the neck-line at 3.86.

FBMKLCI (1,647)

KLCI is on its way to complete the wave iii of C of (6). This wave iii may end somewhere at 1,550 level, another 100 point lower or 6% to go before a 10% wave iv rebound to bring the index higher to 1,700 level by end of December 2019.


Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm0.05) - Another greatly undervalued stock

Fintec is an investment holding company, operates as a technology incubator. The company's Technology Incubation segment engages in the provision of management and strategic advisory services; research related activities; business networking and funding for its incubate companies.

Its investment in 6 listed companies can be broken down into several broad areas of focus as follows:

Fintec has 602 million issued shares. At 5 sens, its market capitalization is only Rm30.1 million. Its assets and liabilities are straight forward. No borrowing and has about Rm22 million cash, that is about 3.65 sens a share.

The number of shares of the 6 listed companies held by Fintec are as follows:

At today's closing price of 20.5 sens for Vsolar, 5 sens for AT, 33 sens for Focus, 1.5 sens for Netx, 4.5 sens for Mlabs and 11 sens for DGB, the market value of Fintec's holding in these company is Rm192.7 million. That is about 32 sens for each Fintec share in addition to the 3.65 sens of cash per Fintec share.

There were 4.18 millions Fintec shares queuing up to sell at 5.5 sens today. For the whole day not a single lot was done at 5.5 sens. At the end of the day 0.93 million share were sold down to buyers at 5 sens. It is hard to understand why Fintec is selling for only 5 sens.

For its quarterly result ending 30 June 2019 that must be announced by end of August, I am expecting Fintec to announce an earning of about 4 sens a share for the net increase of Rm27.9 million in the value of its investment holding in these companies from 1st April to 30th June.

Since 1st July, the value of its investment in these 6 companies has increased by another Rm69.1 million to Rm192.7 million.


Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Insas Bhd (Rm0.85) - The most undervalued stock.

Insas added 4 sens (+4.94%) today with higher than usual volume of 2.6 million. From its long-term chart, Insas is currently on its major wave 3 of its mega wave (5).

From the 5-year chart, it has so far completed the wave (i)-(ii) of its major wave 3.

From the 6-Month chart, after completing its wave (ii) in May, since then it has formed its mini wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 and since last Friday it has started its mini wave 5. It can either end its mini wave 5 within one or two days and has a bigger price pull back to form a possible sub-wave i-ii

Or with a strong momentum Insas might continue with its mini waves formation to form 9 mini up-waves instead of 5. Whether it is going to be 5 or 9 waves, the formation of the mini wave 5 in the last two days confirmed the starting of wave (iii) of the major wave 3.

The following article from Sslee 'Insas Deep Value Investing' is a detailed analysis on Insas. A very good article from Sslee.


Sunday, July 21, 2019

Dow - Has Wave E Started ?

Dow (27,154)

If Dow continues to move lower next week, then it is very likely that wave E has started. Be prepared for a minimum 20% correction unless it is going to be a failure E.

Once the 26,690 level is broken, I expect the 24,680 level to be the next support. And if Dow is going for a 'head and shoulder' formation, it will have a strong rebound to 26,690 level to complete the right shoulder.

If Dow is no good, the rest of the world bourses including Bursa Malaysia won't be good.

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Dow (27,332) - In record territory again.

Dow gained another 243 points (+0.9%) to record another historic height on expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of July.

Based on daily closing price chart, Dow managed to punch through its upper trend line on Friday. With 280 points or 1% above the trend line, it is still too early to rule out the wave D of major wave 8 scenario.

In addition to the 'closing-price' chart, it is advisable to have a look at the daily bar chart which indicates the intra-day high and low.

Based on daily bar chart plotting for Dow, the Friday closing of 27,332 landed exactly on the upper trend line. I also noticed that there is a gap between Friday's and Thursday's bars. If Dow were to turn south from this level then the 'gap' is technically an 'exhaustion gap'.

However, if Dow can continue to move higher next week then the current up-trend can no longer be the wave D. The next possibility is the wave iii of major wave 9 for the current run-up. Major wave 8 has already ended on 24 December 2018 at C. My problem is to explain why the wave C of 8 has only 3 waves instead of 5 waves.


Sunday, July 7, 2019

Dow (26,922) - Has wave D ended ?

Dow added 323 points last week after setting a new historical closing high on Wednesday at 16,966 level. Has Dow completed its wave D and is ready to go south?

If Dow is forming a 3-3-3-3-3, A-B-C-D-E expanding triangles, it will have to move lower to complete its wave E before it can start its major wave 9 bull run.

Wave E can be very damaging and is likely to drop by 20% or more unless it is a failure E.