Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Soybean Price - A Bullish Breakout

The chart for Soybean future looks rather bullish in the last few days. There is a clear breakout two days ago and at this moment it is trading at $1458 price level. It is bullish because the current up surge can be the sub-wave iii of wave 3.

It is possible for commodities to run during the initial phase of bear cycle for Dow .

In 2007, Dow might have reached its peak on 9 October 2007 and started its bear run but Soybean continued to run from $1010 in October 2007 to $1633 in July 2008 for a 61% gain. Will Soybean price move to $2200 in the next 6 months for a similar 61% gain?

Looking at the CRB chart below, from 9 October 2007, when Dow started to turn south, CRB put on 45% to reach 473 in July 2008. Is it possible for CRB to reach 536 for a similar 45% gain by January 2012?

Malaysian Crude Palm Oil (CPO) future usually moves in tandem with the Soybean future, can CPO price starts to run up from here?

Looking at the 1-year chart below, there is no sign of turning so far. However, the average monthly price for August 2011 of Rm 3121 is Rm 26 higher than the average July 2011 price of Rm 3095.

If CPO price can move higher to above Rm 4000, it is only logical that all the plantation stocks in Bursa Malaysia will move higher and I expect the big fish to take the opportunity to unload.


Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Dow - On course to complete sub-wave iv

Dow dropped about 90 points after 55 minutes of trading. It is possible that Monday's closing price of 11539 marked the end of mini-wave 3, the current down is the mini-wave 4. I am looking for 150 to 200 points for this mini-wave 4 pullback. The next surge of mini-wave 5 will complete the sub-wave iv at around 11800 level. The following sub-wave v is expected to bring Dow to 10719 or lower for a more than 1000 points drop to complete the wave 1 of major wave C. Sub-wave v is expected to take about five to six weeks to complete.


Monday, August 29, 2011

Selamat Hari Raya

To all my Muslim friends,

Selamat Hari Raya.


Sunday, August 28, 2011

Dow - continues with sub-wave iv

Refer to my previous weekend posting, since Dow did not go below the 10719 level, I can put aside possibility 2 and 3 at this moment. Dow continues to complete its sub-wave iv of wave 1 of major wave C of mega wave 6 as shown below.

Mega wave 6 appears to be a 5-3-5 A-B-C corrective wave. Major wave A and B were completed, Dow is currently forming the wave 1 of C.

Dow is currently at sub-wave iv of wave 1 as shown earlier under 'Possibility 1'.

In the following figure, I have superimposed the January 2008 to March 2009 portion of major wave A starting from location after last Friday closing price as my 'Projection' for the rest of major wave C as shown.

Under this 'Projection' with the assumption that the magnitude of major wave C is the same as that of major wave A, the ending point of major wave C is around October/November 2012 with Dow at around 5,200. This is a very very rough picture that I have painted for major wave C, how exactly Dow is going to move until end of 2012, only God can tell. I can only modify and change the chart as Dow reveals its move slowly day by day.

Looking Back

I was going through my old 2009 yesterday and in my 31st January 2009 post, click 'Short term Bearish' to read. I am surprised that I was able to have the following summary for Dow.

1. Dow in sub-wave 5 of Major Wave A. Whole formation can be completed by mid-March 09.
2. Commodity should move higher inline with BDI.
3. Stock accumulation by big boys has started

Not bad.


Saturday, August 27, 2011

Steve Jobs - Speech at Stanford University Part III

You just have to know what the people want, even if they can't even quite express just what that is.

My third story is about death.

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.

This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope it's the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.

Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Thank you all very much.

The End


Friday, August 26, 2011

Steve Jobs - Speech at Stanford University Part II

Jobs' greatest ability was to give people products that can become an indispensable part of their everyday lives.

My second story is about love and loss.

I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.

I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.

I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.

I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

To be continued .........


Thursday, August 25, 2011

Steve Jobs - Speech at Stanford University Part I

Last night, Steve Jobs, the founder of Apple Inc, has finally resigned as CEO due to health reason. There were many writeup on him, his life, his achievement and his many other things. Here I would like to reproduce his 2005 speech at Stanford University.

I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?

It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.

And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.

It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:

Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, it's likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.

Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

To be continued......

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Gold Mania

The Sifu of Gold, Marc Faber said :

One year ago, on 20th August 2010, Marvin Clark wrote an article "will the price of Gold reach $5,000 ?"

He said, "the inflation-adjusted price today for gold is more than $2,200 an oz. There are models with gold reaching $5,000, $6,000 and $8,500 an oz. One outlier has gold pegged at $36,000 an oz."

Click 'Will Gold Reach $5,000' for the article that was published a year ago on 20th August 2010.

Yesterday he wrote another article "Gold still on its way to $5,000", 11 reasons were given on why gold would rise to $5,000. Click "Here" to read.

In my yesterday's post, I mentioned that 'I don't think it (the price) will crash down from here ($1,909 level)'. My statement was based on my wave count for gold as shown above. There may be a wave 4 correction but not a crash.

The current run-up is the wave 3 of major wave (III), the 3 of (III), that is why it is so dynamic. An expected pullback ( say to $1,600 ) as mentioned by Marc Faber will complete the wave 4 before the last euphoric wave 5 surge (Mania Phase) to complete the major wave (III) if there is no extension.

It is important to note that the major wave (II) side-way "Complex A-B-C-D-E" correction lasted 20 years (a shallow and long correction), by the 'Rule of Alternation', major wave (IV) is expected to be a "Simple 5-3-5 zig-zag A-B-C" correction (a sharp and short correction). Theoretically major wave (IV) can drop until the top of major wave (I) of around $850. If gold can really reach $5,000, a drop to $850 is a 83% decline, a worst case scenario.

This is highly possible if the major wave (IV) decline takes only 2 to 3 years to complete instead of the 20 years of major wave (II). It has to happen in this way if it is a Gold Mania.

This is only an academic exercise on my part, it is not a recommendation to short or to buy gold. Don't forget, I can be wrong. Please consult a gold investment expert before taking any position.