Tuesday, December 30, 2014

PMCorp and Mui

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.31)

PMCorp gained 8.5 sens (+38%) today with very high volume

Its mega wave (3) has started.

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.29)

Mui reached an intraday high of 31.5 sens before closing the day at 29 sens, gained only 0.5 sen. Volume for the day is very high. Mui holds directly 27.53% of PMCorp and it has another 38.97% indirect interest on PMCorp

Hopefully its wave (iii) has started.


Sunday, December 28, 2014

Dow - 4 new records in a row.

Dow (18,053)

Dow set 4 consecutive new record highs from Monday to Friday. Dow is either forming the wave b of its wave (xiv),

Or it is forming the mini wave 1 of sub-wave iii of wave (xiii).

FBMKLCI ( 1,764)

From its previous week's low of 1,673, KLCI managed to move higher for 7 consecutive trading sessions and gained a cumulative 91 points (+5.4%) along the way.

Hopefully this is the starting of its major wave 5 and hopefully it can last for at least 2 years.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.85)

If KLCI is forming its major wave 5, it is possible that KSL has started its wave (v). The next up could be the mini wave 3 of its wave (v).

FACB Industries Incorporated Bhd (Rm 1.03)

Facb is one of those greatly undervalued stocks. With Rm 151 million of cash in hand and zero borrowing, it cash per share is Rm 1.80 (Facb has only 84 millions share). It is also holding 339 millions share of Karambunai.

For its quarter ending September 2014, its earning per share is 0.49 sen and its net assets per share is Rm2.51. Even without taking into consideration its factories buildings, lands and its existing business of Stainless Steel Fittings and Bedding ( Dreamland), Facb looks cheap at Rm 1.03.

There are two possible wave-counts for Facb. If it continues to move higher from its current level, it is either forming the wave 3 of its major wave (3).

Or it is forming the wave B of its major wave (4).

Under this scenario, its wave C of (4) may bring its price to 70 or 80 sens level. On 15th December it dropped to as low as 96 sens. To go to 70 or 80 sens is possible even though its cash backing per share is Rm 1.80.


Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Merry Christmas

I wish you a Merry Christmas
I wish you a Merry Christmas 
I wish you a Merry Christmas
And a Happy New Year

Dear Santa, all I want is

wave (xiv),(xv),(xvi) and (xvii) 

wave 5

And My KSL 
wave (v) of 3

Wah !!! Rm 4.00  KSL
and Warrant RM 3.20
Huat-Ah !!!!!!

Thank You

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Dow - At a crossroad

Dow (18,024)

Dow crossed the 18,000 level and set another new record high, its fifth record in December. I would like to maintain my wave count that Dow is currently forming the wave b of its wave (xiv).

However, with Dow marginally higher than its previous high, the possibility that I have ruled out previously has returned. The previous high is not wave (xiii), it is the sub-wave i of wave (xiii). Dow is forming its sub-wave iii currently.

At this moment I still cannot rule out the more bearish possibility that the previous high of 17,958 could be the end of major wave (5), or the end of mega wave 1.

Whatever is it, the last candlestick is a 'shooting star' with a gap, Dow is likely to take a pause before making its next move.


Monday, December 22, 2014

FBMKLCI - Major wave 5 started ?

FBMKLCI (1,744)

KLCI added 28 points (+1.64%) on Monday. Hopefully this is the major wave 5. Hopefully both KLCI and Dow can run for another 2 years.

Pan Malaysia Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.435)

PM Holdings gained another 13.5 sens (+45%) on Monday.

It moved from 11 sens to 43.5 sens (+295%) within 6 trading days. The news - Dr. Yu Kuan Chon bought another 69.192% of PM Holdings from Mui at 12 sens a share. With what he already has in hand, Dr. Yu ultimately will hold 74.522% of PM Holdings.

With net assets at 6 sens and 2012 EPS at -4.23 sens, 2013 EPS at -1.05 sens and 2014 first 3 quarters EPS at -0.21 sens, its price of 43.5 sens is fundamentally not right but technically correct. If we are talking about 'double-bottom' formation, it will ultimately go to Rm 4.00. BUT, frankly speaking I won't touch this stock because firstly chart can fail; secondly holding this stock is at the mercy of the operator and thirdly once the price collapsed, it could plunge all the way to where it started - 3 sens (May 2013 bottom).

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.28)

Mui added 3.5 sens (+14.3%) to 28 sens with high volume today.

From its 10-year chart, very likely Mui has started its major wave 5.


Sunday, December 21, 2014

Weekend Summary

Third Biggest Stock Bubble

It is good to be reminded that we are ridding on an enormous assets bubble currently and it is anybody guess that when it will burst. According to Andrew Smithers, "We're in the third biggest stock bubble in US history", click to read.

Brett Arends, "Probably the most important single implication of this analysis is not what is going to happen today or next week or even next year. It is to remind investors that stocks in aggregate have not always generated high return."

Dow (17,804)

Dow recovered from its Tuesday low of 17,068 to close the week at 17,804. 

At this moment, I am assuming that Dow is forming its wave (xiv) until I can see some signs that I may be wrong and that Dow is possibly heading for a much higher degree major wave (6) or mega wave 2 correction. And of course there is always this possibility which I considered quite unlikely at this moment that the peak of 17,958 on 5th December is the end of the bull run since March 2009.

It may be good to have a look at October 2007 peak.

Dow's first drop was from 14164 to 13622 for a 4.5% drop followed by a 3% rebound. Most investors were not aware that it was the beginning of a new bear market that would bring Dow all the way to 6547 by March 2009 for a 54% decline.

In fact during period from October 2007 to January 2008, when Dow dropped by 10%, FBMKLCI moved from 1369 on 9th October to 1516 (peak) on 11th January 2008, gained 10.7%.

FBMKLCI (1,715)

Based on KLCI 20-year chart, no matter how I count, mega wave (5) has completed only 4 waves, it has yet to form its major wave 5.

On Friday KLCI ended the day at 1,715 level. Is Tuesday's low of 1,673 the end of major wave 4 ? And has major wave 5 started ?

It appeared to me that major wave 5 has started.

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.205)

With the recent sharp drop by PMCorp to 16.5 sens, I have revised my wave count for PMCorp. 

PMCorp has completed its mega wave (1) and (2). The next up trend is likely to be its mega wave (3).


Thursday, December 18, 2014

Dow Surged

Dow (17,778)

Dow surged 421 points (+2.43%) on Thursday. It achieved the magnitude of mini wave i of b in two days instead of my expectation of 10 days or more. This b wave may even overshoot its wave (xiii)'s high of 17,958.

Both the European and US markets surged on news that the Swiss National Bank imposed a negative deposit rate of -0.25%. People will buy assets instead of keeping money in the bank. Investors viewed the action of Swiss National Bank as a prelude to more QE programs from the European Central Bank. More fuel for the assets bubble. Roubini may be right in saying that the bubble will not burst for another two years.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.90)

Has KSL completed its wave (iv) ? If c has only 5 waves then it should have, unless the current rebound is the mini wave 6.

If wave (v) has started, how high will it go ?


Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Dow - wave b started

Dow (17,356)

Dow gained 288 points (+1.69%) at the close of Wednesday trading. I guess this is the starting of the wave b of its wave (xiv), at best. How high this b will go and how long it will last is hard to say.

But, if it is too short in magnitude and duration, then it may not be b at all, and more likely it may be the mini wave i and ii of major wave (6).

However, if crude oil price can stabilize and move side way, Dow may take a month or more to complete this wave b.


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Dow - Looking for wave b rebound

Crude Oil WTI (USD 55.87)

Crude oil after touching an intraday low of $53.9 and an intraday high of $57.4 it closed at $55.87 on Tuesday. Has my target of $55 reached ? Is this the level for its major wave 3 ?

Dow (17,068)

Moved in tandem with the crude oil price, Dow has a strong intraday rebound to 17,427 (+1.5%) before dropping lower to close at 17,068 (-0.68%). Dow is about to complete its wave a, may be another 100 points to go to complete the mini wave v.

FBMKLCI (1,673)

KLCI closed at 1,673 on Tuesday, 13 points lower than my projected level of 1,686 for the mini wave v, that is no good, it may have to go to its next support of 1,660 level and that can be reached within a day.

Hopefully KLCI is forming its major wave 4 and not something else. Hopefully the next rebound can tell whether it is forming its major wave 5 or something else.

The only 'something else' that I can see at this stage is a missing major wave 5, that also means - Game Over.

We often have missing fifth wave at mini or minor wave level but it is highly unlikely that a major wave can be 'missing'. But don't forget Murphy's Law and also don't forget 'anything can happen in stock markets'. Be prepared.


Monday, December 15, 2014

Dow - What's next ?

Dow (17,180)

Dow dropped another 100 points (-0.58%) on Monday. The best scenario that Dow can possibly have is a a-b-c wave (xiv). I guess wave a is about there.

The next 'not so good' scenario is a 15% correction major wave (6) to 15,250 level.

And of course the worst that can happen is - the bubble has already burst, but it is too early to conclude at this stage.

FBMKLCI (1,701)

KLCI has a rather sharp drop with a gap on Monday. I hope that is an exhaust gap.

I hope I am still correct in maintaining that KLCI is forming its a-b-c major wave 4 since early January 2014 and it still has a major wave 5 to go.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 3.66)

KSL has a sharp 41 sens drop (-10%) on Monday. I have never expected the mini-wave 5 to happen in this way, and at 2 days before it goes ex-bonus. I have also never expected it to go below Rm 4.00 before ex-bonus. 

Hopefully I am still not wrong in assuming that KSL is forming its wave (iv) currently and it still has a wave (v) to go to complete its major wave 3 of its mega wave (3).

I hope Roubini is right that the bull still has another 2 years to go 'before the bubble burst'. This is to enable KSL to have time to complete its whole wave movement until mega wave (5),


Saturday, December 13, 2014

Who is right - Roubini or Marc Faber ?

Dow (17,280)

Dow lost 315 points (-1.8%) to close at 17,280 on Friday. The best scenario that Dow can have is an 8% wave (xiv) pullback to 16,500 level. This is assuming what Roubini has told Yahoo Finance in early December is still right and Dow has another two years to go before 'the bubble pop'. Click to read.

However if Dow failed to hold at 16,500 level, then the next possible support is the 15,250 level, a 15% drop - major wave (6) correction. Under this scenario, what Roubini has said recently is still correct.

After the completion of major wave (6), we still have major wave (7), (8) and (9) to go. That can easily last for another 2 years or more and Dow will be setting more new record highs all the way to above 20,000.

However, if what Marc Faber has told CNBC in November, "I will soon be proven right" (click to read) is correct, I will expect Dow to plunge all the way to at least 10,655 level (-40%) for a mega wave 2 correction. My minimum projection is much worst than what Marc Faber has expected in 2012, 'a more than 20% correction'. My projection is assuming that the assets bubble has already burst. My maximum projection is a 100% retracement to the starting point of mega wave 1, the 6,547 level.

FBMKLCI (1,733)

KLCI dropped badly on Friday due to some forced selling on 'margin-call'. More margin-call next week may bring the index straight to my projected 1,686 level.

If Dow can hold for another 2 years, my reading for KLCI remains as major wave 4 correction and it is about to end. Another about 50 points to go.

Looking at the long-term chart, a normal mega wave (5) should have 5 waves and major wave 4 is almost there. But, stock market has to remain as unpredictable sometimes for its own existence.