Monday, January 28, 2019

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2019

As usual, before the starting of the next Lunar New Year, CLSA Ltd, a Hong Kong based capital markets and investment group, published their 'Feng Shui Index' for the coming lunar year, the year of Pig (5 February 2019 to 24 January 2020).

CLSA expects the index to hit bottom by April. The Index will reach its high in June and drop sharply in July. It will reach its second bottom in September to be followed by its second run-up to reach its second peak in November.

How was the Hang Seng Index performed in 2018 with respect to the CLSA Feng Shui Index 2018?

Hang Seng Index followed the CLSA Feng Shui Index extremely well from February to July. But from August to October the two indices moved in opposite directions. For November 2018 and January 2019, the trends were correct but there was divergence during the month of December 2018.


Saturday, January 26, 2019

Dow - On its wave D of Major wave 8

Dow (24,737)

Dow is about to end the mini wave 3 of its wave i of D.

After completing its wave D, a normal wave E will end around 21,300 level before Dow starting its major wave 9. But wave E is more likely to fall short or overshoot. A failure E is likely to end at 23,000 level whereas an overshoot wave E is likely to reach 21,000 or lower.

Major wave 8 is likely to end within 2019 before the starting of major wave 9 for a new bull run.

The most optimistic scenario is a failure wave E due to the building up of strong momentum for the major wave 9.

Bursa Malaysia is likely to follow Dow for a small run up before Dow completes its wave D and will go for another bearish phase when Dow is forming its wave E of 8.


Sunday, January 20, 2019

Affirmative action for the Malays - Mujahidin Zulkiffli

This is an interesting article from Mujahidin Zulkiffli.

January 15 at 2.09PM

Affirmative action for the Malays
First, let’s look at why we have this in the first place.
Yes, because of the Chinese. We wouldn’t have Malay affirmative action if it was just the Indians we had to worry about, would we?
Maybe now we do, but then again, if we take out Ananda Krishnan, the Indian average income goes down way below the Malays lah. (I’m talking in jest)
Now what about the Chinese?
These are people with economic brains. It’s not just in Malaysia, anywhere in the region, they are thriving.
Indonesia? Chinese control the economy. The Ciputra (Tjie-putra), the Tanotos (Chen), the Riadys (Lie), the Widjajas (Huang), the Salims (Lim) are all Chinese Indonesians and they control much of Indonesian economy (just to name a few).
Thailand? Also Chinese controlled, although Chinese Thais may have assimilated with the locals better than in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Singapore? Who am I trying to fool here?
Let’s take Indonesia as an example. Why are those Chinese having Indonesian names? Because under Soharto, they weren’t allowed to keep their Chinese names. And in Indonesia, everyone is Bangsa Indonesia.
Really? On paper yes, but just look at Ahok. He had to struggle to become an administrator. Ended up in jail. Not too long ago there were violence in Jakarta targeting the Chinese Indonesian. Are they any better than the Chinese Malaysian?
Yes, I say Chinese Malaysian and not Malaysian Chinese because that should be right term if you are Malaysian first. But many Malaysian Chinese are Chinese first, Malaysian second. Some still going around talking about the motherland going to take over the region soon and liberate all overseas Chinese. Some shouted hooray when China was introducing Green Card for overseas Chinese few years ago. Just like how some Indians still so proud of their Overseas Indian Resident Card.
Anyway I digress, but my point in digressing is this, the Bangsa Malaysia dream is far from happening not only because of the Malays, but also because of those who still want to have strong ties with the motherland. We didn’t become all Malay during independence because some of our grandparents wanted to keep ties with their motherlands. My grandpa came from China, so I can say “our”.
Now 60 over years later, many no longer have ties or feeling of relevance to China and India. So now the younger ones are calling for equality for all.
Fair enough. There are many poor Chinese, there are many poor Indians that deserve attention.
But what about the Malays?
The Malays have failed to capitalise on 60 years of affirmative action and now demanding to have better policies to keep the affirmative action.
The Malays actually need the opposite. We need not be pampered anymore. We need to work hard. We need to be told that no one will help us if we don’t help ourselves, and by that I don’t mean Malay helping Malay but everyone need to stand on their own to make it, and not rely on policies, quotas and birth rights.
Look at the Chinese, even without level playing field, they still control the economy. Not just in Malaysia but also in the region. How come?
If we are going to have affirmative action, it has to be copying what the Chinese had done, or what they had experienced.
They had to do it the hard way? We now have to do it the hard way. We’ve had it the easy way and we never appreciate it because nothing beats sweat and blood of hard work.
How is it that 1.5% population of Indonesia are so much richer than the 98.5%?
Is it about DNA? Are Chinese people that good with business? Can’t be because there are poor Chinese too. Maybe they are the freaks?
It’s about their culture and it’s about our culture.
Malays, and especially Muslims are generally not economically inclined to be successful.
1) It’s about the afterlife for us. Whatever we do in this life, it’s the afterlife that matters more.
So why complain? We gonna be rich, go to heaven what? Let’s all be poor in this life lah?
You get grants from affirmative action, what would you do? Ok you go to Haji, you buy your BMW, you marry another wife. Apalagi mau? Project don’t complete, you got sued by bank for unpaid loans, but who cares, your company go bust but you are not affected. We are in it for instant gratification, we don’t think long term survival, do we?
Nak apa lagi? Sembahyang sajalah, masuk syurga. Why complain about others doing better when all you want is to go to heaven?
2) It’s too many restrictions based on religion for us. Oh insurance haram. Cannot cannot. Oh interest is haram. We can loan people money but without interest. It’s haram. But when we need money, we loan from the bank and pay interest. Belum cerita loan Ah Long lagi. Macam mana nak maju? Oh share trading is haram, must trade syariah compliant counter only. That limits us. Oh bitcoin is haram. We missed the boat. Oh coventional banking is haram, we had to wait until we rename all those interest into something that sounds Islamic. So we got left behind.
3) Women must stay in the kitchen. We lose the opportunity to use the female brains, the female drive that had driven mountains for others. Look at Thailand, they have lazy male workforce. Even bricklayers in Bangkok are women. Us? Stay at home, masak, jaga anak, kangkang untuk suami, beranak, repeat cycle. Women workforce is important but we want them to stay indoors. Cannot be seen by others, cannot mingle with men. Haram! Pergi Universiti Al Azhar tapi sebab peluk lelaki terus kena buang. Siapa suruh masuk Al Azhar? Like this Macam mana nak maju?
Our men are not much different than the Thais. We are just as malas. The stats don’t lie. More women in university, more women on kaki jalan selling street food, why? Women have more sense of urgency than men. Women have more emotional financial obligation to fulfil than men. Why? Because they care about their family.
Look what PPBM did in their appointments on that Board of Johor Education Foundation, all Malay is one thing racist but all male!
4) Everything must be halal. Well, probably good but then we are taking it beyond the Islamic requirement. We make things harder for ourselves.
5) And the biggest elephant! Muslims not mingling with non-Muslims. In business, at work, if you want to progress, you have to mingle with others to learn their good traits and take lessons from their lesser traits. Baru lah kau boleh maju. Kalau duduk sesama kau saja, jadi katak bawah tempurung.
For the Malays to prosper, we need to look within. We need to change ourselves. We need to get rid of ideologies that are holding us back. We can do so without jeopardising others.
Anything else you want to add? I malas nak spoon feed dah.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Weekly Update

Dow (24,706)

Dow gained 711 points (+3%) within a week to close Friday at 24,706 level and that is too high to be considered as a wave iv of C. The only option left is an expanding 3-3-3-3-3 expanding A-B-C-D-E formation for the major wave 8.

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 53.73)

Crude Oil (WTI) price at this moment appeared more likely that it is forming the wave (iii) of D that is likely to end at around US$85 level before turning south to form its wave E.

But I still cannot rule out my previous option that it is currently forming the wave D. The height of its current rebound will decide which is the finally correct option.

FBMKLCI (1,692)

My reading for KLCI remained the same as what I have mentioned so far. It is either on the wave (iii) of its major wave 5

Or it is at the tail-end of its mega wave (6).

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.295)

BJCorp's stock has been dropping since 2010 with no sign of a reversal. However, since early 2016, its OBV has been moving in an opposite direction to its price movement (Price-OBV Divergence) indicating strong accumulation.

In its run-up in early January, it has its first OBV breakout. There is possibility that BJCorp has bottomed in September 2018. Since then if my interpretation of the completion of wave i-ii and wave 1-2 is correct, BJCorp is on its long term bull run and should start to move higher next week to break the 32 sens level. Failing which, my reading is wrong, that means BJCorp is still searching for its bottom.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 1.39)

Inari is having its wave B of (2) rebound at this moment.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.725)

Based on my previous reading for Insas, it is currently forming the wave iv of C. Insas is about to complete its mega wave (4).

Another possibility for Insas is to take its 2016 low as the end of its mega wave (4) and since then Insas has formed its major wave 1-2 and there is this possibility that Insas is at the beginning of its major wave 3. Too bullish to be true? Just keep the fingers crossed.

Here is an article by Sslee on Insas. Click 'My Response to Some Comments in Insas Forum' for some facts and figures on Insas.


Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Tolerance is a two-way street

When a developer was testing the lighting for a newly completed apartment block, the photo of a cross on the building quickly went viral and caused an uproar on social media.

Some claimed that it is a threat to someone's faith and is a danger to peace and harmony. Some demanded an explanation from the developer and whether there is any agenda behind the cross.

Click ' The Offence Of The Cross' for an excellent article written by Dennis Ignatius.

According to the developer, his design is actually a Chinese character ' ' meaning 'King'.

In other countries this is a non issue but in this 'boleh land' it is a big issue. In fact the minority communities are constantly being reminded about respecting the sensitivities and understanding the concerns of the Muslim and Malays and very often warned not to do anything that can undermine peace and harmony but isn't the reverse is also applicable to the majority community?


Sunday, January 13, 2019

Weekly Update

Dow (23,995)

My reading for Dow remained the same. It is either on its wave iv of C of its major wave 8. The magnitude of wave iv is about there. Wave v should start soon to complete the C.

Or it is forming the wave D of its major wave 8 if Dow can have a small pullback early next week to complete the mini wave 4 follows by another run-up to form the mini wave 5 to complete the wave i of D.

FBMKLCI (1,683)

My reading for KLCI also remained the same. It is either forming its major wave 5.

If KLCI can continue to move higher next week, one possibility is the forming of mini wave 3.

Or it is forming the wave C of its mega wave (6).

USD/MYR (4.0960)

Malaysian Ringgit is strengthening against the USD.

This is positive for Bursa Malaysia.

Friday, January 11, 2019

The Difference


Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Malaysian Ringgit - Looked bullish

USD/MYR (4.1100)

The USD/MYR chart is bearish, no good for USD but bullish for MYR.

In the monthly candlestick chart, the January candlestick is in red, I am looking for a longer red body by end of January.

In the weekly candlestick chart, it is forming its mini wave 3.

In the daily candlestick chart, the mini wave 3 has completed the minor wave i and ii and is forming the minor wave iii of its mini wave 3.

Hopefully USD/MYR can go below 4.0 by next month.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm0.315)

BJCorp moved up strongly today, gaining 2.5 sens (+8.62%) to 31.5 sens with heavy volume of 61 million shares traded.

BJCorp has been moving in a downwards trend since April 2010 from around Rm1.70 to its record low of 27 sens by end of 2018.

Since early 2016, divergence between its OBV and stock prices started to appear. The lows of its OBV have been moving in an upwards trend even though the lows of its stock price continued to move in a downwards trend from 33 sens to 27 sens.

Its OBV is at the fringe of a breakout. An OBV breakout to above 1,600 million level is very likely signalling the starting of a new up trend cycle after the long decline since April 2010.


Saturday, January 5, 2019

Dow jumped 746 points (+3.29%)

Dow (23,433)

Dow surged 746 points on Friday on strong jobs report, Federal Reserve's statement of "will be 'patient' in interest rate hike", positive sign in next week US-China trade talks and China's action to re-ignite economy growth by injecting US$220 billion into its financial system.

The current surge is either the wave iv of C of Dow's major wave 8,

Or it is the wave D of its major wave 8.

FBMKLCI (1,669)

My two options for KLCI remained the same. The more optimistic option is the completion of wave (ii) and KLCI is at the starting of its wave (iii).

The second option is the forming of wave C of its mega wave (6). Under this option KLCI will be moving lower to complete its mega wave (6) before the starting of its mega wave (7).


Thursday, January 3, 2019

Shame on you - Rashid Abdul Rahman

He, openly calling for allocating government contracts to division leaders so as to win elections "by hook or by crook". This is a big slap to all Pakatan Harapan leaders. How can such a person without integrity can head the PH government's Electoral Reforms Committee? He should be sacked with immediate effect. The most disgraceful thing to Bersatu and Tun Mahathir and Pakatan Harapan was that at the end of his speech 'he received a standing ovation'. OMG, a standing ovation. How not to say,"Bersatu is UMNO 2.0"?

Dow - On its way to complete its major wave 8

Dow (22,709)

After one hour of trading Dow has dropped more than 600 points to 22,709. Hopefully this is only a major wave 8 correction and not a mega wave VIII (-50%) correction. Please refer to my previous posting.

And hopefully Dow is at the tail-end of its major wave 8. Hopefully Dow will stop at 21,400 level to form a 'double bottom' before starting its major wave 9.

Another possible form for the major wave 8 is as shown below.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 1.27)

Inari dropped sharply by 20 sens or 2.26% today to continue with its wave A of (2) formation after punching through its 1.60 support level.

It formed its minor wave v of 7 today. Next rebound will be the mini wave 8. If its wave A has only 3 sub-waves, 1.20 can be the end of wave A. But if its wave A has 5 sub-waves, the end of wave A can be much lower than 1.20.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.65)

Insas is currently at the wave 3 of C. It has wave 4 and 5 to go to complete the wave C of (4).


Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Happy New Year