Friday, April 30, 2010

Talam & Inch Kenneth

In Boleh land ? No-lah in Brussels, Belgium.

Possible wave count for Talam

Double bottoms formation. Broke through the neckline a few days ago, now dropping back to touch the neckline at 13.5 sens. It will be a classical textbook case if it can starts to run up from here to reach its minimum target price of 23.5 sens for a 74% gain.

Possible wave count for Inch Kenneth

Inch Kenneth closed at 53 sens today (+6%). Can this be the starting of wave 3 of major wave (V) ?

Pussy Willow, Bruges.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

US markets have just closed 2 hours ago with an up of about 1.2%

The wave count for S&P with the 1.3% up candlestick is as shown above. Indication is that wave 2 of the major wave (V) has been completed. If so, next week onwards all the three indices are likely to set new highs above the expanding A-B-C to form the wave 3 of the major wave (V).

Mourinho is good, really good.

Courtesy of BBC

After 38 years, Inter Milan finally able to reach the final of the European Champions League with an aggregate 3-2 win over the defending champion Barcelona. It was a fantastic match.

Inter Milan played with only 10 men for 62 minutes, produced a defensive masterclass to hold on to their 3-1 lead in the first leg encounter.

Just look at the match statistic, Barcelona was in possession of the ball for 76% of the time and with a total of 16 attempts on & off target compare to Inter Milan's zero attempt, it was a classic match of Inter Milan's defence against Barcelona's attack. Even though the defence finally gave way on the 84th minute to give Barcelona a 1-0 victory on this second leg match, Inter Milan was able to proceed to the final to face Bayern Munich on May 22 with an aggregated 3-2 score.

The first time I noticed Jose Mourinho was when he became the Manager for Chelsea in 2004. In a press conference after joining Chelsea, he said, "Please don't call me arrogant, but I'm European Champion and I think I'm a special one." Since then the British press started to refer to him as "The Special One".

Under Mourinho from 2004 to 2007, Chelsea regained the English Premier League Title twice, after a lapse of 50 years. His other achievements include winning the League Cup 2005 & 2007, Community Shield 2005 and FA Cup 2007, a fantastic achievement for a manager.

Mourinho may be arrogant but he has his principle, he is sincere and more gentlemen than Alex Ferguson, I really respect him. I hope his Inter Milan can win the Champion League in May.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Further notes on Dow's 2% drop on Tuesday

Look at the above 15-month chart for Dow, to me Dow has either completed its major wave (V) (Possibility 1) Or Dow has completed its wave 1 of its major wave (V) (Possibility2)

For Possibility 1 where (V) is completed, Dow will have to drop another 1,000 points to 10,000 level to form a major A-B-C.

For Possibility 2 where only wave 1 is completed, and if (V) were to take the form of (I), then wave 2-3-4-5 are likely to be completed within next two months (May & June).

I have decided to assume that Dow will have wave 1-2-3-4-5 for its major wave (V) and that Dow is currently on wave 2.

I usually look at charts for all the 3 indices, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P, to see which one provides a clearer wave counts. All the 3 indices must behaved the same way ultimately. At this moment S&P provides a clearer wave count as shown above.

Wave 2 takes the form of an expanding A-B-C as shown above. Judging from the shape of the corrective wave A-B-C, it is possible that wave 2 may end around current level within the next 2 days. The whole major wave (V) be completed by middle of May is another possibility if the major wave (V) take the form of a wedge formation with overlaping waves 3-4-5.

It is also safer to keep an eye on Possibility 1, the moment the current down-wave goes beyond 3%, I may have to switch back to Possibility 1 option.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

US Market - 2% drop on Tuesday

Dow, Nasdaq and S&P dropped about 2% to 2.4% at the close of Tuesday trading session. In my previous post I was expecting the sub-waves to continue with vii, viii and ix as shown below.

However, with such a sharp drop due mainly to the downgrading of Greece's debts to junk status and Portugal's debt from A-Plus to A-minus by Standard & Poor. The concern is whether these two countries will default their debts, that will affect all the other countries that hold their bonds.

The question now is whether this sharp drop marks the end of major wave (V) or wave 1 of (V) as shown below. What has happened to my sub-wave vii, viii, and ix.

S&P chart gives a clearer wave count. Since after the so called sub-wave vi, there are only 3 mini waves up as shown below, these 3 mini waves cannot be vii, as vii should have 5 mini waves. 3 waves up follows by a sharp drop can only be wave B. So the so called sub-wave vi is actually wave A followed by 3 mini wave that formed B and the sharp down is part of the wave C of wave 2 a s shown below. An expanding A-B-C. As mentioned previously wave 2 pullback is expected to be about 3%, that should bring Dow to around 10,860, another 130 points to go.

However I wouldn't be surprised if the wave 2 ends around this level because my earlier 3% correction was based on the assumption of a zigzag A-B-C for wave 2 instead of the current expanding A-B-C.

At this stage it is too early to say that major wave (V) has ended, the magnitude and technical indicator have yet to confirm that. I prefer to assume that the Dow is currently at wave 2 of major wave (V) until further wave development has proved otherwise.

The Third Frog

Gua napat Na Tok, Gua napat Na Tok, Gua napat Na Tok, Gua napat Na Tok, Gua napat Na Tok................

Monday, April 26, 2010

Aiyo You Hulu Selangor Chinese, What Do You Want?

You already have the best accidental actor as your President

BN Belanja you makan every night

PM went to your house and gave personal promises on your welfare

You made PM walked through the rubbish to get his promise on development allocations plus many other goodies. He even gave you a personal letter in Chinese asking for another chance and Rm3,000,000.00 for your Chinese Primary school if BN win.

Despite all these, BN lost another additional 5% of the Chinese votes, why har ?

Indians in Hulu Selangor are different, 72% of the Indian votes have returned to BN despite the decision by BN to reject MIC's preferred Palanivel and local Indian's preferred Mugilan.

You have made Ibrahim Ali very very angry

How Har ???

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Dow - Major wave (V) is heading for 9 sub-waves

It is crystal clear by now that Dow is on its way to form its major wave (V), cannot be anything else. The interesting question now is, "what is the possible wave pattern after (V)".

If major wave (V) has the same duration as that for major wave (I) and if it has only 9 sub-waves, then (V) will end either on second or third week of May.

After major wave (V), on a more pessimistic view, Dow can either form its major wave (VI) and ends its Bear Market Rebound as mentioned previously by Robert Preachter with a major wave (VII) as shown above.
Or Dow can have a Mega wave (I)-(II) as shown above. The interesting question is whether the Mega wave (III) will mark the end of the bear market rebound and go for the "Double Dips" that has been mentioned quite often by some of the economists or it is the dynamic Mega wave (III) of a new bull market.

Nasdaq is currently forming its sub-wave vi.

S&P is similarly forming its sub-wave vi

Saturday, April 24, 2010

U Jump I Jump

U Jump I Jump

U Jump I Jump

U Jump

I Jump with Style

To Freedom

Friday, April 23, 2010

Talam Exit from PN17 ?

In April 2009, there were talks that Talam would be coming out of its PN17 status anytime. Its stock price moved from 4 sen to 14 sen. 12 months have passed, Talam remained in PN17. Lately the talk has intensified, and Talam was the top volume leader today with 149 millions shares changed hand, what does its chart tell?

The first thing that strikes me is its OBV, very strong and has been breaking new ground even though the price has yet to break out.

The second thing that catches my eyes is its double bottoms formation.

The third thing is, it has broken its neckline today with very high volume, a classical breakout. In the medium term, it is expected to head for its minimum target price of about 23.5 sens.

Talam's possible wave count is as shown above. It is currently in its sub-wave iii of wave 3 of its major wave (III). It is iii of 3 of (III) and with a breakout of its Double Bottom Neckline. That is the reason for its high volume today.


Mitrajaya put on 10 sen today (9.35%). It managed to break its neckline of 85 sen on 10th March and it continued to move to Rm 1.27 to complete its wave 3.

Its 10 sen up today can either be its wave b or the beginning of its wave 5. Time will tell. Minimum target is Rm 1.40 for its major wave (III).

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Art Harun - The Bastardisation Of "Social Contract" - Part II

Some of you might not like the late Tun Razak and the circumstances under which he became the second PM but he did talk sensible things sometimes.

Please click The Bastardisation of "Social Contract" - Part II to read more.

It is interesting to note that the British MPs when debating on the Independence issue, used the terms Chinese-Malayans and Indian-Malayans to refer to the Chinese and Indian in the then Malaya. The general practice now is to use Malaysian Chinese and Malaysian Indian to refer to the Chinese and Indian here. My question is whether there is any difference between Chinese Malaysian and Malaysian-Chinese?

My English expert said there is no such thing as "Malaysian Chinese" but there is Malay-Chinese, that refer to Malay with a Chinese citizenship. So we are Chinese-Malaysian.


Wow Dow remained close to 100 points lower after two hours of trading, looks like it is forming the wave 2. Hopefully it is a 3% correction to 10,800. Keep your fingers crossed.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Dow - When will wave (V) end ?

Edam - Holland

If wave (V) of Dow has the same length as that of wave (I), Wave (V) can last until the second week of May. The worst that can happen is a 3% correction at this moment to form wave 2.
Nasdaq's wave (V) has a clearer wave form than Dow as shown above. It is very clear that sub-wave v is completed. Dow has to be the same.

The next wave can either be wave 2 as shown below. That means Dow is currently forming rebound wave B of 2 to be followed by a down wave C to complete the wave 2.

If Dow continues to move up in the next few days , then it is going for 9 sub-waves formation as shown below. In this scenario, sub-wave vi has just been completed. sub-waves vii, viii and ix are likely to be completed by second week of May.

Must Read - The Bastardisation of the "Social Contract" - Part 1 by Art Harun

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Have a look at other major markets

Shanghai market is following its own course, it is very much different from the rest of the world bourses. It has completed its major wave (I) in August 2009 and it has remained in its A-B-C-D-E consolidation phase since then. Wave E may end around 2,800.

Australian All Ordinaries and French CAC40 have a rather bearish wave-count at this stage unless the wave (III) does not end here.

Dow is progressing well in its major wave (V). It can either take the form of wave 1-2-3-4-5 or it can continue with its current sub-waves to form vi-vii-viii-ix and so on until it reaches the magnitude of its major wave (I).
FTSE, Hang Seng and Singapore STI are having the same wave form similar to that of Dow.

Bursa Malaysia is lagging behind Dow by one sub-wave as shown below. Major wave (V) can either have 5 waves or 9 waves depending on where the Dow will end its current run. The worst that can happen is a 3% drop within a week in tandem with Dow if Dow goes for a 3% consolidation for its wave 2.