Monday, April 30, 2018

Ooh, really?

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Dow (24,024)

Dow dropped sharply on Tuesday with an intraday low of 23,829 (-619 points) as the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield broke the 3% level for the first time in four years.

The major wave 8 has slowly evolved into a 3-3-3-3-3 A-B-C-D-E corrective wave instead of a simple 3-3-5 A-B-C pattern.

Dow started to climb up from its low of 6,547 level in March 2009, that was 9 years ago, to its current level of above 24,000 for a gain of more than 260% after the Federal Reserve started its monetary policy of 'Quantitative Easing (QE)' nickname 'Printing Money' policy in December 2008.

Looking at the chart, from its low of around US$800 billion in 2008 to its height of US$4.5 trillion in 2014, a total of US$3.7 trillion had been printed and injected into the market. It was this excessive liquidity coupled with low interest rate plus the subsequent improvement in economy that fuelled the current run in the Dow since 2009.

The next run-up will be the major wave 9. If the mega wave (VII) has only nine waves, the next mega wave (VIII) correction could be in the region of 40% to 50%.

Be very careful during the major wave 9's run.


Saturday, April 14, 2018

Dow - going south to complete its wave C?

Dow (24,360)

Despite some rebounds in the last few trading days, my wave count for Dow remained the same unless Dow can continue to move higher next week, then I would have no choice but to revise my current wave count.

FBMKLCI (1,868)

KLCI rebounded for 4 trading days in a row, gaining 36 points, following the dissolution of parliament on 7th April. It has a small 5 points pullback on Friday. If KLCI were to go down all the way from its current level, the rebound in the last few days could be the right shoulder of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern. A drop below the neckline at around 1,820 will confirm the wave C (-15%) pullback.

With G14 election around the corner, KLCI could be quite volatile.


Friday, April 13, 2018

I am scared, very scared.

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Dow - Is it at the tail end of its major wave 8?

Dow (23,932)

Dow has completed its wave iv of C and has started its wave v of C on Friday with a 572 points (-2.34%) drop after Trump said on Thursday that the US would consider an additional $100 billion tariffs in Chinese goods.

If my projection of 22,600 level is the end of the wave C of its major wave 8, Dow has another 1,300 points to drop.

FBMKLCI (1,837)

Refer to my previous wave counts for KLCI, with the sharp drop on Wednesday, I am left with the possibility of a mega wave (6) correction of about 15%

Or a very bearish super wave (II) correction of at least 45% down.