Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Dow - The status of the current bear market rebound

I am still talking about the major wave b of the mega wave 6 and the possible major 'head and shoulders' formation as shown in the 110-year chart above.


For the major wave b since the 6,547 low in March 2009, Dow so far has completed wave (1) and (2) and is in the process of completing its wave (3) to complete the major rebound wave b before the next plunge in 2011 to complete the major wave c, a very bearish view.

Wave (3) normally has 5 mini waves unless its is extended. So far it has completed its mini wave i, ii and iii. Tuesday long red candlestick has confirmed the completion of mini wave iii. Since mini wave ii is a simple zig-zag pattern, I would like to assume that mini wave iv will be a flat a-b-c as shown above.

From the Bull Camp

Refer to the chart below

(a) The bulls believed that March 2009 low of 6,547 is the end of the bear market.
(b) Dow so far has completed major wave (1) and (2) of the bull run.
(c) Dow is currently in major wave (3)
(d) So far wave i and ii of major wave (3) have been completed.
(e) Dow has just completed wave 1/iii and is in the process of completing its wave 2/iii
(f) The next wave is the wonderful wave 3/iii, it is going to be very dynamic with very high volume as shown below.



This hypothesis may be possible. In stock, many things are possible, but personally I feel that this possibility is very slim, I am a long-term bear.


I found this video from YouTube explaining the $600 billion Quantitative Easing No. 2 of Bernanke





Warren Buffett's letter on Quantitative Easing No. 1

News from Reuters on Wednesday, Nov 17, 2010.

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett praised the U.S. government's efforts to bail out the economy during the financial crisis two years ago, preventing an economic collapse.

In a letter published by the New York Times, Buffett wrote that all corporate America's dominoes were lined up and were ready to topple at lightning speed in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008.

"My own company, Berkshire Hathaway, might have been the last to fall, but that distinction provided little solace," Buffett, nicknamed the Oracle of Omaha, said.

He said the U.S. government's decision to buy up assets that many investors considered to be toxic had helped pull back the economy from the brink of collapse.




1 comment:

sawhs said...

The little mouse(?) did not ask what do goldman sech is doing with this newly printed paper money ( which cost only the value of the paper used and printing cost). The answer is these paper money is going to buy up assets from other countries; ushing up the price of assets which is to be sold later and causing bubble of the countries concerned. A day light robbery of the highest order.