Thursday, October 31, 2013

Keck Seng and Pinehill Pacific

Keck Seng (Rm 7.08)

Referring to my previous article on Keck Seng dated 24th September, 2013, my wave-count for this stock remains the same, Keck Seng is forming its major wave 3.

It gained 59 sens (9%) today to close at Rm 7.08 on its mini-wave 7 of its sub-wave iii, of wave (v). This mini-wave 7 really caught me by surprise because I have assumed that sub-wave iii has only five mini-waves and has ended around Rm 6.40 to be followed by sub-wave iv's one month consolidation. Obviously I was wrong.

Pinehill Pacific ( 35 sen)

 Previously known as Multi Vest Resource, since its peak in year 2000, PinePac has formed a big A-B-C-D-E corrective wave in the last 13 years.  

It appeared to me that it has finally completed its mega wave (2) at the end of April, 2013. It then take another 6 months to complete its wave (i)-(ii) and sub-wave i-ii as shown below.

The stock gained 3 sens or 9% today to close at 35 sens and it has broken its 34 sen-resistance line with high volume. Is this the starting of its sub-wave iii of its wave (iii) of mega wave (3) ? For this wave iii of (iii) of (3), it has to be very dynamic with high volume in the next few sessions and it should be able to break its long-term resistance line at around 42-sen level.


Sunday, October 27, 2013

Back in Malaysia, I am confused.

When I was in Korea, I have clear blue sky and my mind was clear too

Now I am back to KL my mind becomes blur and hazy and forgetful

If he, who signed all the legal documents,

and the court can ruled that he could not be held accountable for any mistakes, misleading information or inaccuracies in the preparation of the ministry’s documents, then who is responsible for the Rm 4.6 billion PKFZ scandal ?

This is nothing, when the two policemen that have admitted in court that they shot and bombed Altantuya could be acquitted by the court. I am really confused, "Who is responsible ?"

For poor Teoh Beng Hock,

I am still trying to understand the meaning of  "He did not commit suicide and there was insufficient evidence to prove that his death was homicide." So, who is responsible for his death ?

Then the case of Chee Gaik Yap - Datuk's son was acquitted

I don't understand why one person raped and killed a girl is guilty but when you are one of the 2 or more people that raped and killed a girl, you can be acquitted, not guilty!

Then, I try to remember what has happened to that Rm250 million cow that stayed in the condominium

I gave up, I cannot remember who is responsible for stealing the Rm250 million cow, I only know who is the new UMNO Wanita Chief.

Back in Malaysia.


Thursday, October 24, 2013

When will the assets bubble burst ?

On Federal Reserve's QE

Marc Faber, "The question is not 'tapering', the question is at what point will they increase the asset purchases to say US$150 billion, US$200 billion or a trillion dollars a month." 

"The Fed has boxed itself into a position where there is no exit strategy."

"We are the bubble. We have a colossal asset bubble in the world [and] a leverage or a debt bubble."

"One day this asset inflation will lead to a deflationary collapse one way or the other. We don't know yet what will cause it."

So, when is this 'One day' ?

I remember in 2006 when people talked about 'housing problems' and 'subprime mortgages' Dow was around 11,000, It continued to run until October 2007 to a high of 14,164 for a 3,000 points gain (+28%) before it finally collapsed. Anyone that had exited the market in 2006, he would have missed out the 28% gain.

Looking at the chart, I have two options for Dow at this moment.

It is either Dow has already peaked, it has only 5 major waves (1) to (5),

OR it will continue to run in tandem with Federal Reserve's money printing. Dow has 9 major waves (1) to (9).

At this moment I give the second scenario a higher probability because the FBMKLCI has not finished its 5 up-trend waves.

With the liquidity created by the central bankers and many investment funds holding lots of cash and are very cautious, I don't expect the assets bubble to burst in the near future. At least not this year.


Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Bursa Malaysia - FBMKLCI closed with record high.

FBMKLCI closed with a new record high of 1,814.11 at the end of the trading session today.

The index is forming the mini-wave  3 of wave (v) of major wave 3 as shown below.

It is going to set more record highs in the coming months. Dow may go for its major wave (6) correction with a possible low of 14,000, but as long as Dow does not collapse, FBMKLCI is likely to continue with its mega wave (5) up-trend.


Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Bursa Malaysia - Stocks with inverted head and shoulders

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm2.24) - Property :

Half year earning until June 30th is 29.64 sen per share. Net assets per share is Rm 3.16. Its next run-up can be its wave 3 of major wave (3).

Glomac Bhd (Rm 1.23) - Property :

For its financial year ending 30th April 2013, its earning per share is 14.72 sen. Its first quarter earning ending 31st July is 3.37 sen. Net assets per share is 1.16. Same as KSL, its next wave up is the wave 3 of (3).

Inch Kenneth (Rm 0.94) - Plantation :

A stock with strong assets backing, zero borrowing but with poor earning. Its first half earning until 30th June is only 0.49 sen per share. Net assets per share is Rm 1.79. Its cash and cash equivalent is Rm 180 million (about 43 sens per share). It has 500 acres of land in Bangi and Kajang valued at Rm 387 million (about 92 sens per shares).

Its next run-up is the wave 5 of major wave (3).


Monday, October 21, 2013

Dow - Possibility 2 becomes more likely

Referring to my posting on 13th October, I mentioned about 3 possible chart interpretations for Dow as shown below.

Since 13th October, we have another 5 new candlesticks added in, Dow has formed mini wave 1 & 2. Mini wave 3 is being formed and it has 3 candlesticks so far, one strong and two weak candlesticks. The 4th candlestick is being formed at this moment. After 2 hours of trading Dow dropped about 20 points, another weak candlestick.

In an up-trend, wave 3 is expected to be more dynamic and stronger than wave 1. Now we have a weak wave 3 instead, so the current mini wave 1-2-3 is likely to be a corrective wave. Thus 'Possibility 2' can be a more likely outcome. This can be confirmed if Dow goes below last Tuesday's 15,168 level in the next few days.

If it is indeed 'Possibility 2' then Dow is expected to complete sub-wave ii anytime and then proceed to form sub-wave iii, iv and v of wave c of major wave (6) that can stop at around 14,000 level.

And 'Possibility 3' cannot be ruled out at this moment.  Referring to the 8-Year chart below, I am talking about the mega wave 1 has ended in August and since then Dow has been forming the mega wave 2 that can go to as low as 6547 level for a 100% retracement.

But at this moment I think it is unlikely because (I) many investment funds and private investors are very cautious anticipating a 'Collapse" and are holding a lot of cash; and (II) All the central Banks are printing a lot of money and all these money has no where to go except commodities and assets including stocks.


Saturday, October 19, 2013

Tan Teng Boo is holding 50% cash

Tan Teng Boo is one of the investment advisers that is highly respected by many. I personally ranked him No. 1 in his stock market analysis. In today's The Star Business, he revealed that the closed-end fund under him is holding Rm 200 million or about 50% of its net asset value in cash. He has been maintaining a high cash position for the last 9 to 10 months, waiting for the right moment to enter the market.

In other words, sometimes in 2012, he has turned bearish and has started to sell down his stocks to hold more cash, waiting for the market to drop from its current 17 times price-earning (PE) to about 12 times PE, which is about 30% drop for FBMKLCI from its current level. So far, he has waited 10 months. He is a big fish, he has to sell his stocks well before the tide turned, when there is still buyers offering good prices.

Similarly when he started to buy, it is not possible for him to buy all his stocks right at the bottom. He may started to buy when FBMKLCI has dropped 30% and he may buy  in stages as the index dropped further and further by 40%, 50% and until the market hits bottom.

Being a small fish, I can sell all my stocks within a day or two, the strategy can be different even though I am also aware of the impending financial implosion.

To go by the chart, first of all, Dow must be OK, then FBMKLCI must be OK too.

 As long as Dow don't drop below 14776, I will assume that it is forming its wave (ix).

If Dow drops below 14776,  Then it is having its major wave (6) correction.

FBMKLCI closed at 1799 level yesterday, it is forming its mini wave 3, new record highs are expected in the coming weeks for it to complete its wave (v). The market won't collapse so soon as long as Bernanke is still around.


Thursday, October 17, 2013

FBMKLCI - In order.

Wave (v) in progress, the index is expected to set a series of record high until 2014.

Dutaland Bhd :

Is mini-wave iii about to run ?

Farms Best Bhd :

Same as Dutaland, the mini-wave iii is about to start. Its 2nd quarter earning is 3.1 sen a share and its NTA is Rm 2.77 a share.


Monday, October 14, 2013

Harn Len Corporation

On 27th September Harn Len announced the disposal of 2,409.8 hectares of its oil palm plantation that has a book value of Rm 28 millions (11 sen psf) for about Rm 184.6 millions (71 sen psf). The surplus is Rm 156.6 millions or 85 sen per share. (Harn Len has 185 million shares)

On the following two trading days, its share price jumped from Rm 0.78 to an intraday high of Rm 1.32 before closing at Rm 1.10. Since then its share price has been moving side way at around Rm 1.05.

The proposed land sale has revealed the extremely low book value of Harn Len's plantation land. Besides the 2,409.8 hectares mentioned, Harn Len has another 10,160 hectares of plantation valued at Rm 114 million or 10.4 sen psf. If a value of 71 sen psf is applied to its 10,160 hectares, the value is Rm 778 million. The surplus is Rm 664 million or Rm 3.58 per share.

By adding 85 sen and Rm 3.58 to its current net assets per share of Rm 1.32, the possible net assets per share is Rm 5.75. Its share price was around Rm 0.75 before the announcement, that was why its share price jumped following its announcement.

From its 10-year chart, it is possible that after setting its historical low in 2009, it has completed its major wave 1 and 2 by early September 2013. It is possible that its major wave 3 has started and so far it has formed its sub-wave i, ii, iii and iv. Harn Len gained 2 sens today, is that the starting of its sub-wave v of its wave (i) ?

Guardian  gods of Jeju Island


Sunday, October 13, 2013

Back to Boleh Land

Clear blue sky, clean water, fresh air, cooling  .... 
peaceful and safe ......

Traditional village, temples, buddha .....

Korean foods ....

The streets

Back to Boleh-land

Our 1st Class leaders

Our safety

Gated and guarded everyday, everywhere ...

Better stop here, if I talk too much, somebody is going to ask me to migrate to Korea.

How is Dow ?
The 3 possibilities remain the same.

Possibility 1 

Sub-wave ii has a 100% retracement. But the magnitude is a little too big, but still possible.

Possibility 2

I think this scenario is more likely, a major wave (6) in the making. Let's see whether Dow will come down and go below the 14776 level.

Possibility 3

My least possible option at this moment, the assets bubble has collapsed. Keep the option just to remind myself not to forget this possibility.