Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Dow - Super wave VII

It appeared to me that the October 2007's peak of 14,164 is wave B and the March 2009's low of 6,547 is wave C of super wave VI as shown below.

Courtesy of for the base chart

Since March 2009, Dow has been forming its super wave VII and its is about to complete its major wave (5) of its mega wave 1.

If wave (ix) is not the end of its major wave (5), the coming wave (xiii) is another possible point for Dow to end its major wave (5).

And then the next crucial question is whether that is also the end of its mega wave 1 unless mega wave 1 has 9 major waves instead of 5.

The Problem.


Sunday, April 27, 2014

Dow - Wave (xii) formation ?


The 500 points rebound over 6 trading sessions a week ago has thrown out my wave c with 5 mini-waves and instead I have a wave c with 3 mini-waves. It appeared that Dow is heading for an expanding 3-3-3-3-3, a-b-c-d-e wave (xii) formation as shown below.


My wave count for FBMKLCI remained the same, sub-wave iii in progress.

FACB Industries Incorporated (Rm1.43)

My wave count for FACB is as shown below.

It is forming the mini wave 5 of its wave (vii).

FACB gained 12 sens (9%) with very high volume on Friday forming the mini wave 5.

It has a very healthy balance sheet with Rm 147 million cash.

 It has zero borrowing.

Since FACB has only 84 millions shares, that gives the stock a cash backing of Rm 1.75 per share before taking into consideration its other business operations in Malaysia, China and Hong Kong.


Friday, April 25, 2014

MH307 - Reality Check

"Flight 370 most likely did not crash, it was almost certainly taken over (possibly by remote control) and flown to a destination with all passengers alive and the aircraft in one piece."

Click 'Flight 370 reality check' for another interesting article on MH370.


Thursday, April 24, 2014

Farms Best - A stock that refused to fly

Farms Best is one of my stocks that performed badly in term of price appreciation. In the last 4 to 5 months its price appreciated by about 13% from 62 sens to 70 sens (until last Tuesday), a miserable 8 sens over 4-5 months. However it added 4 sens in the last two days to 74 sens with high volume. Is this the starting of its next run-up ?

For 5 years, Farms Best has been moving up and down within an uptrend channel forming its A-B-C-D-E mega wave (2) as shown above.

Assuming it has completed its mega wave (2) by September 2013, it proceeded to complete its wave (i)-(ii) by early March 2014 and completed its sub-wave i-ii last week.

If I am right, its sub-wave iii has started and it should continue to move higher with good volumes in the next few trading days. Hopefully it can break its upper resistance line at around Rm 1.20

However, if I am wrong and if its price starts to move lower again, then the E of its mega wave (2) has not been completed yet, as shown below. Wave E may go below 50 sens.

Its 2013 annual earning is 7.33 sens a share (P/E is about 10). Its Net Assets is Rm 2.66 per share. It has cash of about Rm 50 millions, but its bank borrowings is about Rm 250 millions.


Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Bursa Malaysia - Property

As I have mentioned previously, the property index is currently forming its sub-wave v. I am looking at 1700 level.

From February low of about 1240 level, there is a potential gain of 37%. So far it has gained 17%.

But some of the property stocks have gained more than 100%. Such as Asiapac, it gained 114% in less than 5 months.

PJ Development WC gained 140% within the same period.

Land and General gained 68% also within 5 months.

One of my favorite, Mui Property so far has added 35% in 4 months. Its wave count is bullish. The next up will be its sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3.

One of its properties that is not fully valued is its 507 hectares of yet to be developed piece of land at Port Dickson in Bandar Springhill. In its latest annual report, the land is valued at Rm 2.50 per sq. ft.

In its last quarterly reports, its Net Assets per share is 34 sens. However if I valued this 507 hectares at Rm 15 per sq. ft., its net assets per share will go up to Rm 1.29 a share. At yesterday closing price of 23 sens, it looked cheap. Another good point is, it has zero borrowing and has 43 millions of cash.


Thursday, April 17, 2014


My long-term wave count remains the same. FBMKLCI is forming its major wave 3.

For this major wave 3, so far it has completed its wave (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv).

The main question is whether has it completed its wave (v) ?

Same as Dow and to tie in with Dow, FBMKLCI has 3 possible options. Option 1 is the most optimistic. As shown below, it is about to start its mini wave 5 of its sub-wave iii.
In Option 2, it is forming its wave (vi). It has just completed its wave b of (vi) and I expect it to come down to about 1760 level to complete its wave (vi) before starting its wave (vii)'s run.

The third option, Option 3, is very pessimistic. Major wave 3 has ended in December 2013 and so far it has completed its sub-wave i and ii and it is currently forming its sub-wave iii. Still a long way to go. So be very careful when FBMKLCI goes below 1840 level, below its mini wave 1.


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

A Giant Has Fallen

It is sad to hear that the Tiger of Jelutong, YB Karpal Singh was killed in a road accident near the deadly Gua Tempurung stretch of the North South Expressway when the car he was traveling rammed into the side of a lorry.

Rest in Peace YB Karpal Singh
Your Legacy Will Live On


Monday, April 14, 2014

Property Index - wave v of major 5

The Bursa Malaysia property index's wave v of its major wave 5 is on its way towards the 1700 level. That is another 20% up from its Monday's closing level of 1418. Hopefully Dow can hold for a few more months for it to complete its course.

Watch out for Glomac, it is an inverted head and shoulder and its is possible that its wave 5 has started.


Sunday, April 13, 2014

Dow - My wave counts remained the same

Dow dropped 411 points (-2.5%) within 2 days and closed at 16,026 on Friday. My three possible wave counts for Dow remained the same.

I am looking at the 15,800 level. Hopefully the current down trend can stop there. The next crucial level to watch is the 15,400 level.

On Friday Marc Faber talked to CNBC, "I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash. ..... And I suspect it will be even worst."

He was talking about the coming crash could be even more than 22.6% in a single day.

On 19th October 1987, Dow dropped 508 points (-22.6%)  from 2,240 to 1,738 within a day.

Click 'Marc Faber - The Coming Crash' for what he has told CNBC on Friday.


Thursday, April 10, 2014

Farms Best Bhd (Rm 0.73)

After reaching its bottom in 2009, Farms Best Bhd has been moving side way until September 2013 to complete its A-B-C-D-E mega wave (2).

By March 2014, it has completed its wave (i)-(ii) as shown below.

It added 3 sens (+4.29%) today with high volume. Is this the first candlestick of the mini-wave 3 of its sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of its mega wave (3) ?

If this wave count is correct, Farms Best is likely to put on another green candlestick tomorrow (Friday) with high volume.


Wednesday, April 9, 2014

MH370 - Subang ATC and the Military need to explain

If only those on the jobs were more alert and can think, we may not have landed in such an embarrassing situation.

If only the air traffic controllers and radar operators were more vigilant and had reacted promptly.

If only the air traffic controllers have activated search and rescue and have alerted the military upon losing contact with MH370.

If only the military has questioned why a commercial aircraft was flying without a transponder and has counter checked with Subang ATC?

To read more click 'All it had to take was a phone call' by V Shanker Ganesh

Monday, April 7, 2014

Dow - Sub-wave ii in the making

With Dow dropping another 166 points (1%) to 16,245 on Monday, I have to modify my wave count for the sub-wave ii. The 3 possible options that I have presented in my last posting remained the same.

Sub-wave ii takes the form of a a-b-c waves

Option 2 is the most optimistic whereas Option 3 is the worst possible scenario where one has to run for his life.


Saturday, April 5, 2014

Dow - Wave b or wave (xi) or mega wave 2 ?

Dow dropped about 160 points (-0.96%) to form the mini wave 4. Next wave up will complete the sub-wave iii. It can be the completion of wave b (Option 1) of major wave (6), 7% to 8% pullback.

Or it can be the sub-wave iii of wave (xi).

And the worst case is the completion of mega wave 1.

The pullback can be 35% or 60% for for mega wave 2.

One has to be extremely cautious. Run for your life if needed.