Friday, November 30, 2018

Orion - The mighty hunter

Last night I went to my garden at around midnight. After many nights of cloudy sky without stars, I finally managed to see Orion, the most prominent constellation at this time of the year.

It is located not exactly overhead but slightly on the eastern side. Stand facing east and look up at 80 degree from horizon.

Orion, the mighty hunter, accompanied by his two dogs (Canis Major and Canis Minor) at the back, awaiting the charging Bull (Taurus) from the front.

The most obvious stars of Orion are the red Betelgeuse that marks his right shoulder, the blue Rigel that marks his left foot and the three stars located mid-way between Betelgeuse and Rigel that form Orion's belt. Three fainter stars below the belt represent his sword.

The principle star of Canis Major, the Greater dog, is Sirius, notable as being the brightest star, is also the nearest star. Sirius and Betelgeuse together with Procyon in Canis Minor, the little dog, they form an almost perfect equilateral triangle.

A line from Sirius through the three stars of Orion's belt leads one way roughly to the Aldebaran, the red eye of the Bull (Taurus).

In December and January in a moonless and cloudless night we can see 10 out of the 20 brightest stars in the sky.

Sirius is the brightest. Another three stars are not shown. They are the second brightest star, Canopus (2)  above the south horizon, Achernar (9) above the south-west horizon and Fomalhaut (18) above the west horizon.


Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Is there a hand behind the scene?

Why were they at the Seafield Hindu Temple's site?

In what way are the disputes on Hindu temple's relocation affecting you?


Monday, November 26, 2018

Dow - A technical rebound

Dow (24,640)

Dow gained 354 points (+1.46%) on Monday to form the mini wave 4, a small technical rebound. This rebound is expected to end within a day or two before Dow continues to move lower to complete its wave iii. After that Dow is expected to have a stronger wave iv rebound before its final wave v drop to around 23,000 level to complete the major wave 8 during the first quarter of 2019.

FBMKLCI (1,701)

Two months ago in September, I presented two possible wave counts for KLCI as shown below.

Option No. 1

Option No. 2

Since then I have been giving a higher probability to the Option 2 wave count, a mega wave (6) formation.

But now the Option 1 wave count appeared to be more likely for two reasons. The first reason is time factor. If Dow were to start its major wave 9's bull run during the first quarter of 2019, KLCI will not have enough time to complete the wave C of the mega wave (6) that required at least another 12 months.

The second reason is the OBV divergences for KLCI as shown below.

With the Option 1 wave count, the wave (ii) of major wave 5 is possible to end during the first quarter of 2019, same time as the Dow completing its major wave 8.

Under this scenario, the major wave 5 of KLCI will end together with the major wave 9 of Dow within 2 years before the starting of the next big bear trend as mentioned by Steve Cohen.

Dow in 50 years

Possible but still need to watch out for the big bear in 2020.


Sunday, November 18, 2018

Weekly Update

Billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen said on Wednesday a bear market is coming within two years, adding to a chorus of voices who say the US economy could falter by 2020.

Click 'Bloomberg - Cohen' for the reports.

Dow (25,413)

If the next bear market were to start in 2020, the current major wave 8 correction is likely to end during first quarter of 2019 to be followed by the major wave 9 that could run well into 2020.

FBMKLCI (1,706)

KLCI is currently in its sub-wave ii rebound. The next sub-wave iii down can be quite sharp.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.505)

EG is forming the mini wave 5 of its wave (v) of C of (2). Wave (v) might have 9 mini waves instead of 5 mini waves.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 1.79)

Inari is forming its major wave (2).

The duration and magnitude of major wave (2) can vary as shown.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.695)

Insas continues with the wave C of its major wave (4).


Sunday, November 11, 2018

Dow - Be careful of the wave iii of C's plunge.

Dow (25,989)

There is this possibility that the 201 points (-0.77%) drop on Friday is the starting of wave iii of C of the major wave 8 for Dow. If it is indeed the starting of wave iii, Dow will continue to go South in the next few weeks until its completion before the wave iv of C rebound can take place.

However Donald Trump will be meeting Xi Jinping on 30th November and 1st December at the G20 Leaders' Summit in Argentina. If they can come out with something to end the US-China trade war, and the Federal Reserve can postpone the interest rate increase, the current run-up can be the starting of Dow's major wave 9. Dow has completed its major wave 8 with a contracting A-B-C.

But my guess is - it is very unlikely that major wave 9 has started. I am monitoring for the wave iii of C's plunge.

When US market starts to plunge, markets all around the world including Bursa Malaysia will dive in tandem.



Sunday, November 4, 2018

Weekly Update

Dow (25,270)

Dow ended its wave i on Monday with a 918 points swing. Dow rebounded strongly in the next three days forming the wave ii of its wave C.

Dow is likely to continue with its wave ii run-up next week. I expect Dow to end its wave C somewhere near the 23,000 level.

Technically it is also possible that Dow has already completed the wave C of its major wave 8 with a contracting A-B-C. But personally I feel that this is an unlikely scenario in view of the on-going US-China trade war and the uptrend in interest rate.

FBMKLCI (1,713)

My reading for FBMKLCI remained the same. Wave C is likely to end around 1,500 level.