Sunday, August 30, 2015

Syabas Bersih 4


Siti Hasmah, "We are Malaysian"
Dr. M, "I joined Bersih because I want Najib to step down"
Maria Chin, "Should there be a Bersih 5 in the future, it will be a 'celebration of the people'"

This peaceful ending should push the KLCI higher on Monday.

FBMKLCI (1,612)

KLCI moved higher 4 days in a row before the 'Merdeka' long weekend. It also signaled a possible completion of the '3-wave' wave e of 4.

Is this the starting of major wave 5 ? I hope so. But since Ah Jib Kor and 1MDB issues are still around so the first sub-wave of major wave 5 can be very choppy. The important thing is KLCI should not go below last Monday's low of 1532.

Hopefully this major wave 5 can run until early 2017. And if mega wave I has only 5 waves then the mega wave II may go for a 60% correction, at least.

Dow (16,643)

It is also possible that Dow has completed its major wave (6) as the magnitude of the current rebound is too big and is greater than the wave B rebound. Hopefully this is the starting of major wave (7).

My projection for major wave (7) is around 20,700 level, assuming a 32% increase.

I hope I am right.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Go go go ole ole ole

Courtesy of Malaysiakini


Thursday, August 27, 2015

Are you ready ?

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Dow - Has major wave (6) ended ?

Dow (16,285)

Dow gained 619 points (+3.95%) on Wednesday. Is this the starting of major wave (7) ?

As I have asked in my previous posting whether the intra-day rebound of 987 points (+6.4%) on Monday be considered as the sub-wave 8. If it can be taken as sub-wave 8, then the Tuesday low of 15,666 can be the sub-wave 9. And if wave C has only 9 waves, then it is possible that major wave (6) has completed and major wave (7) has started. The correction is 14.26%, exactly the average of 13.5%  and 15%, the respective correction for major wave (2) and (4).

Mega wave 1, which has 9 waves, of super wave VII continues.

If this mega wave 1 of (VII) can last until 2017, the timing will be just nice for KLCI to complete its major wave 5 before the assets bubble burst.

Hopefully the 29/30 August Bersih 4 rally can end peacefully and our Ah Jib Kor can do something nice to resolve the 1MDB and Ringgit issues and then 'Boom' we have bright sunshine.


Monday, August 24, 2015

When the US sneezes, the whole world catches cold

Following last Friday's 531 points (-3.12%) sharp drop by Dow, Asian and European markets dropped sharply on Monday.

Asian markets closed with more than 4% losses before the US market opens. Shanghai SSE Composite was particularly bad with a 8.49% drop to close at 3,208 which is 1,958 points lower than its June's high of 5,166, a 38% pullback.

European markets also closed with more than 4% losses. They were also affected by Dow's 1,089 points (-6.6%) plunge at the opening of Monday's trading. At the close of the European markets, Dow was trading at around 15,900 level, minus 3.4%.

Dow (15,871)

Soon after the opening bell on Monday, Dow plunged 1,089 points or 6.6% to 15,370 level before recovering sharply to an intra-day high of 16,357 (-0.6%) before closing the day at 15,871 level, down 588 points (-3.57%).

Can the intra-day 987 points (+6.4%) rebound to 16357 be considered as sub-wave 8 ? And the final drop to the closing level of 15871 the sub-wave 9 ? Has Dow completed its major wave (6) ? Just wait and see.

FBMKLCI (1,532)

KLCI dropped another 42 points (-2.7%) today. From its July 2014 peak of 1892, the correction to date for this major wave 4 is about 19% which is 3% higher than the 16% correction for major wave 2, still acceptable.


Sunday, August 23, 2015

Dow Plunged 1052 points (-6%) within 3 days

Dow (16,459)

With this 1052 points (-6%) plunge, I have to revise the designated wave (i)-(ii) to wave A-B. And if I am still talking about a major wave (6) correction. The 3-day plunge of 1052 points is the sub-wave 7 of C of (6).

Major wave (6) is likely to end around 16,200 level if it is a 12% correction.

I don't rule out the possibility that it may go for a 15% correction, same as that for the major wave (4) pullback, then major wave (6) can end around 15,566 level.

Looking at the historical chart for Dow, I am assuming that the bull run since March 2009 is the super wave VII.   

The next possibility which I considered as unlikely at this moment is that the mega wave 1 has ended, the assets bubble has burst. Then I have to switch the above mentioned wave A-B back to wave (i)-(ii), then the current plunge becomes the sub-wave 7 of wave (iii) of mega wave 2.

Under this scenario, mega wave 2 is likely to end at 10,600 or lower for a minimum 42% correction.


From the historical chart, this is the mega wave 1-2 of super wave VII.

FBMKLCI (1,574)

If Dow is forming the major wave (6), it is still possible that KLCI is forming the major wave 4.

However, if Dow is heading for a mega wave 2 correction with a minimum pullback of 42%, which I considered as unlikely, then KLCI can have a small failure major wave 5 ( looked odd), with that the mega wave (5) can be considered as completed. Then the current pullback could be the mega wave (6), 36%, correction.

Or the super wave (II) pullback of 56% correction, possible but unlikely.


Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Crude Oil WTI

With the drop in crude oil price to below US$50.00 a barrel, I have revised my previous wave count to take into consideration the latest development.

With this revision, the major wave 4 rebound has not yet started. Hopefully we can have the rebound by September/October and hopefully it can last until 2017 paving the way for another rally before the bubble burst. Hopefully FBMKLCI can move up in tandem to complete its final wave 5.


Saturday, August 15, 2015

Weekly Update

Dow (17,477)

Dow closed the week at 17,477 level. It continues to form its major wave (6), a corrective wave. I expect the (6) to end somewhere near 16,100 for a 12% pullback from its May's peak 0f 18,312, I do not expect the assets bubble to burst before 2017.

FBMKLCI (1,596)

If you think something ugly is going to take place on 29/30 August, Bersih 4 rally, if you think 1MDB is untouchable and Ringgit will continue to drop, sell everything and get out. The downward momentum can be so great that the major wave 5 is missing, game over.

But if you think an UMNO white knight is about to appear to resolve the 1MDB and Ringgit issues, then my major wave 4 may be able to hold and there is still a major wave 5 to come and it can last until 2017 before the assets bubble burst.

My projected support level of 1,574 is only 22 points away, it can be broken within minutes on Monday. Once it is broken, I will need to relook at all my wave count.

FACB Industries Incorporated (Rm 0.975)

Technically it can drop until 70 sens, top of major wave (1). With cash per share of Rm 1.78, zero borrowing, positive earning (but very miserable), net assets per share at Rm 2.41, it is hard to imagine that it can go to 70 sens unless KLCI collapsed then it can go to even 50 sens, a real goldmine.

Karambunai Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.045)

Another hard to imagine low for Kbunai, at 4.5 sens !! Its hotel business and property development are not doing well, losing money every quarters. It lost another 0.2 sen a share in its latest quarter. Net assets is 14.89 sens. It has about 3,000 acres of land that is greatly under value.

The worst that can happened to this company is to be taken into private by its owner Chen Lip Keong who hold about 74%.

How low can it go? Zero? I don't think so, 'no face' to CLK, who is the 50th richest man in Malaysia and he is operating a big monopolised casino in Cambodia and is listed in Hong Kong. Click 'NagaCorp' for reports. How nice if he could get a casino license for Kbunai.


Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Are you ready ?


Monday, August 10, 2015

Ringgit is going lower, lower, lower

I have two wonderful weeks in Italy. A great place with colourful history and magnificent architectures and picturesque countryside. Nothing to complain except the lousy wifi service with very very slow internet connection.

Dow (17,615)

Dow added 241 points (+1.4%) on Monday.

Marc Faber will be right ultimately but not now, my date for that ultimate plunge is in early 2017. The current correction for Dow, I think, is the major wave (6) correction. And as I have always mentioned, I can be wrong.

Dow is likely to have completed its wave A of (6).
Today's rebound is likely to be the starting of its wave B of (6).

My target for this major wave (6) correction is around 16,200 level for a 12% pullback.
FBMKLCI (1,654)
KLCI dropped 28 points (-1.7%) today to close at 1,657 level, 19 points below my 100% retracement level of 1,673. It means only one thing, my previous wave count is wrong and the rebound since January this year is not the wave (i) of major wave 5. It is the wave d of major wave 4.

Under this scenario, a possible low for major wave 4 is the top of major wave 1, the 1,574 level. Another 80 points (4.5%)  to go.

Hopefully Ah Jib Kor's problem can be settled by then and our Ringgit can start to rebound.