Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Dutaland Bhd (Rm0.675)

From the 30-minute interval chart, today's 5.5 sens (7.5%) drop is likely to be the mini wave 4 correction.

If Duta can start to move higher to form its mini wave 5, that should be the end of its sub-wave iii.


Monday, October 30, 2017

Inari and Insas

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 2.84)

Inari has started forming its sub-wave v of its wave (vii).

If its wave (vii) has only five waves, by end of this week or early next week wave (vii) can be completed. It will be followed by the wave (viii) correction which is likely to take a month or two to complete.

After that there will be a wave (ix) run-up to complete the major wave 7.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.995)

Hopefully Insas has completed its mini wave 2 and mini wave 3 is on the way. Very likely this is only the sub-wave i of its wave (v).

Looking at its 10-year chart, its wave (v) as well as its major wave 3 is likely to end around Rm 1.30 level.

Personally I considered Insas as a greatly undervalued stock.

Looking at its corporate structure, its 19.84 % (401 million share) holding of Inari alone is worth Rm1139 million, which is Rm1.80 per Insas share, if I divide Rm1139 million by 632 million of Insas share.

Its latest quarterly earning is 5.24 sens a share with net assets of Rm2.34 per share.


Sunday, October 29, 2017

Weekly Update

Dow (23,434)

Dow is forming the minor wave iv of its mini wave 7.

FBMKLCI (1,746)

The pre-budget rebound is likely to be the mini wave 4.  KLCI is expected to move lower in the next few weeks to complete its mini wave v as well as its sub-wave i.

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.715)

Duta continues to form its sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

From its 30-minute interval 2-week chart, it quite clear that Duta at this stage is at the tail-end of its minor wave (iii) of its mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii.

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.375)

Hopefully Bpuri is forming the sub-wave ii that may take 3 or 4 days to complete. I hope my reading is correct.


Saturday, October 28, 2017

Operasi Lalang - 30th Anniversary

Operasi Lalang was a major crackdown carried out beginning 27 October 1987 by the police to prevent the occurrence of racial riots. 119 persons were detained without trial under the Internal Security Acts. These 119 persons were politicians, NGO activists, intellectuals, students and others.

The background issues were as usual the race and religion related issues that had a cumulative effects in raising ethnic tension.   The last straw that broke the camel's back was the Ministry of Education's decision to send some 100 non-Chinese educated senior assistants and supervisors to Chinese medium primary schools. Concerns were raised by the Chinese politicians and Chinese educationist and related organisations on the future policies and direction of these schools.

On 11 October 1987, a 2,000 strong gathering was held by the United School Committees Association of Malaysia at the Hainanese Association Building. It was joined by politicians from Chinese-based political parties of MCA, DAP and Gerakan.

This event had provoked the UMNO Youth into a mass rally of 10,000 at the TPCA stadium in Kampung Baru on 17 October 1987 led by A Jib Kor.

To make matters worst, a Malay soldier killed a Malay injured two other persons with an M16 riffle in the Chow Kit area on 18 October 1987.

While the then Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir were abroad, some UMNO leaders called for the holding of a mammoth rally in Kuala Lumpur on 1 November 1987.

On 27 October 1987 was launched to defuse racial tension that was said to have reached a dangerous level. 119 persons were arrested; 3 newspapers, the Star (English), Sin Chew (chinese) and Watan (Malay) were suspended; a nationwide ban on any gathering and rally was imposed.

Of the politician arrested, 3 were UMNO members, 8 MCA, 5 Gerakan, 15 PAS, 16 DAP and 2 PSRM. A mixture of Malay, Chinese and Indian.

In the last few days, several articles were written about Operation Lalang and some had demanded an official apology from Dr. Mahathir over this issue. But no one has looked into the picture of what would have happened to the country if Dr. Mahathir had not put in place the operation. Many of those that were arrested could have disappeared if there was a racial riot.

Sometimes I just wondered what would have happened on the day of 13 May 1969 if Tunku Abdul Rahman had a similar 'Operasi Lalang' well before that day.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.38) - On new uptrend?

Bpuri has been moving in a downtrend direction for 7 years from its 2011 January high of Rm 1.54 to its August 2017 historical low of 33 sens. Its OBV indicates consistent accumulation during these 7 long years of downtrend. Accumulation turned stronger since early 2016.

Off and on I used to have a look at its chart to check for reversal pattern because Bpuri is considered by many as a fundamentally solid stock except that its earning is not that impressive. Its latest quarterly earning is only 0.07 sens a share but its assets backing is quite strong at 87 sens a share.

Since mid-August it has formed a bullish three overlapping waves that moved higher and higher within an uptrend channel.

My wave reading is wave (i) with a-b-c-d-e wave (ii). It moved up 2.5 sens today with strong volume. If it can break the upper trend line tomorrow with higher volume, it can continue to run higher for a while.

The business of Bpuri can be classified under five segments. Namely construction; property development; quarry and readymix concrete; polyol manufacturing and lastly power generation and supply.


Dutaland (Rm 0.695) - Well behaved.

After resting for one day to complete its minor wave (ii), Duta moved up again to form its minor wave (iii) today. It closed at Rm 0.695 with volume of 15.5 million.

From the 30-minute interval chart, it is clear that Duta formed its wave b-c-d-e of minor wave (ii) yesterday. Today it formed the sub-wave i-ii and part of sub-wave iii. I expect it to complete its sub-wave iii and iv tomorrow.

From the daily 6-month chart, we can see that it is forming its sub-wave iii.

Next question is how high Duta can go. From the 10-year chart we can see that the mega wave (1) moved from 28 sens to 72 sens for a 157% gain. It then took 7 long years from July 2009 to December 2016 to complete its mega wave (2).

Mega wave (3) started in January 2017 from a low of 39.5 sens. If I used fibonacci ratio of 1.618, mega wave (3) will gain 254% to Rm 1.00.

Since mega wave (2) is a complex side way long duration wave, from the 'rule of alternation' mega wave (4) is expected to be a simple A-B-C wave with shorter duration but with bigger magnitude.

For mega wave (4) to have that bigger magnitude, mega wave wave (3) cannot end at Rm 1.00 which is only 28 sens above the mega wave (1). Very likely Duta will go higher than Rm 1.00.

The next fibonacci ratio is 2.618  that will give mega wave (3) a 411%  gain with a price of Rm1.64.

Hopefully from the subsequent wave development we can get some indication whether the mega wave (3) is going for fibonacci ratio of 2.618 or the next higher ratio of 3.618.


Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.665)

Duta was actively chased up to Rm 0.70 before heavy profit taking in the afternoon to limit the gain to only 1.5 sens.

With this surge and with the high volume of 25 millions share achieved, it appeared to me that Duta is forming the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii at this moment.

The 30-minute interval chart has shown that Duta may have completed its minor wave i-ii. If Duta can start to move higher tomorrow, the volume is likely to be higher than 25 millions as it will be the minor wave iii of mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3.

If Duta failed to move higher than Rm 0.70 tomorrow, another possibility is that minor wave ii is not yet completed. Today's closing low is only the wave a of ii. It may need one more day to complete the a-b-c of ii.


Monday, October 23, 2017

Insas Bhd (Rm 1.02) - Wave (v) of 3 started

It is possible that Insas has started the wave (v) of its major wave 3.


Sunday, October 22, 2017

Dow - Be careful of the major correction next year

Dow (23,328)

Dow set new record high everyday from Monday to Friday. Over the week it added 457 points or about 2%.

Dow is on its journey to complete its major wave 7.

FBMKLCI (1,740)

KLCI proceeds with its wave (iii) of C formation. A gradual 15% correction that may drag until the middle of 2018.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.255)

Pworth has completed its mini wave 5 at Rm 0.28 level. For the most bullish scenario, the current correction is the mini wave 6. For this scenario, Pworth should start to move higher again to form its mini wave 7.

But if Pworth continues to move lower next week, then the Rm 0.28 is either the sub-wave i of wave (v) and the current correction is the sub-wave ii of wave (v),

Or the RM 0.28 high is a failure wave (v) that also marked the end of its major wave 1. Under this scenario the current correction will be much longer in duration and bigger in magnitude. The worst case scenario can be a 100% retracement.

A 100% retracement  can mean only one thing, Pworth's proposal (announced in October 2016) to acquire 100% of Rumpun Capaian Sdn Bhd has failed. With that, its projected net profit of Rm 100 million for its 2018 financial year will no longer hold.


Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Dutaland bhd (Rm 0.655) - Two possibilities

Duta has a small pullback on Tuesday. This 1.5 sens drop can either be the mini wave 2 if Duta can move higher from here.

Or it can be the starting of the wave c of ii as shown below.

For the second possibility I do not expect Duta to go below the 60 sens level. And if it does go below the 60 sens level, I will have to review my wave count to look for other possibilities.


Monday, October 16, 2017

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.67)

Duta added 4 sens today with improved volume. If Duta can continue to move higher tomorrow then it is forming the sub-wave iii of its wave (iii) of its major wave 3 of mega wave (3).  The run-up is likely to be accompanied by record volume.

Duta's latest earning for quarter ending 30th June is 1.78 sens per share. Net assets per share is Rm1.11.

From this latest financial statement, its cash in hand is about Rm 9 million and borrowing is Rm 4 million. Net cash in hand is Rm 5 million. Now Duta is selling its 11,579 hectares of plantation to Boustead for Rm 750 million. When the sale is completed, Duta will have Rm 755 million of cash. If I divide Rm 755 million by its number of share of 846 million, cash per share is  89 sens.

Duta other projects include Kenny Height with 73.44 acres of property development at the neighbourhood of Mont Kiara and Solaris Dutamas. Duta has only 58% control interest in this project. During the first quarter of this year, Duta has sold 9.01 acres of its 73.44 acres for Rm 140 million. The balance 64.43 acres should worth Rm 1,001 million where Duta's 58% interest translates into Rm 580 million or Rm 0.685 a share.

Another project is the revival of its 64 storeys Duta Grand Hotel near Petronas Twin Towers and KL Tower. Construction has reached level 32 when the project was halted due to the 1997-98 financial crisis. Its book value was Rm 332 million in 1996.

The third project is the Lake Side Boulevard project in Seremban. The project comprises 182 units of shop-office. Gross development value is about Rm 115 million.


Sunday, October 15, 2017

Dow, FBMKLCI, ASB and Asiapac

Dow (22,817)

Dow continues to move higher to complete its sub-wave v. Is this sub-wave v going to be the end of its major wave 7? Possibility is there.

FBMKLCI (1,755)

KLCI close 9 points lower for the whole of last week. As I have mentioned a few days ago, I expect KLCI to continues its down trend until middle of 2018 to complete its 15% correction in a slow and gradual manner.

Advance Synergy Bhd (Rm 0.155)

ASB is about to start its major wave 3.

It has completed its mega wave (2) at the end of 2016 and since then it has completed its major wave 1-2.

There is a possibility that the two green candlesticks on last Thursday and Friday marked the starting of its major wave 3.

For its quarter ending 30th June, the earning is a negative 0.51 sens a share with net assets at 65 sens a share. From its balance sheet, it has cash of Rm 181 million. Its total borrowing is Rm 99 millions. Net cash is Rm 82 millions. If I divide that by its total number of share of 677 millions, I get 12 sens of cash per share. It was selling at 15.5 sens last Friday. After deducting 12 sens of cash, the balance 3.5 sens is for ASB's other business.

Its business covers 'Hotels & Resorts' operation in Malaysia, China, Indonesia, Qatar, Vietnam, Cambodia, United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia (Holiday Villa & D-Villa Chains); Information and Communication Technology; Travel & Tours; Property Development; Bus-Body Fabrication; Education; Card & Payment Services; and lastly Wellness.

Asian Pac Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.175)

It is possible that Asiapac has just completed its major wave 4 and it has just started to form its major wave 5.

It has formed a triple-bottom at the 15 sens level to end its major wave 4.

For its last quarter ending 30th June, its earning per share is a miserable 0.4 sen but its net assets per share is very strong at 95 sens. Its last Friday closing price of 17.5 sens is a big 81% discount to its net assets.


Thursday, October 12, 2017

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.27) - Forming its wave (v)

Pworth continues to form its wave (v).

It has been trading within a narrow range of 1 to 1.5 sens for 7 consecutive trading days with 2 'doji' formation in the last two days. It appeared to me that it has reached the end of its sub-wave i.

Unless it can start to pull away from its current level with higher volume then my wave count will be slightly different.

Personally I feel that we need not worry about its short term price fluctuation. More important is whether the company's proposed corporate exercise can work out as planned to give Pworth a net profit of Rm100 million in the coming FY18. Pworth's net profit for its FY15 and FY16 were Rm2.38 million and Rm1.16 respectively.

According to its executive director Richard Koo, the Rm100 million will translate into earning per share of 10.89 sens. Click 'Pworth Rm100 million net profit' for the article published on 13 June 2017.

Looking at the16-year chart, there is no major resistance until it reaches the 48 sens level.


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

FBMKLCI (1,757) - Mini wave 3 has started

KLCI dropped to a low of 1,752 before a last minute rebound to close at 1,757 on Wednesday. It appeared to me that the short term technical rebound has ended and KLCI has started its mini wave 3.

As I have mentioned in my previous postings that this is going to be a 15% correction and I expect the KLCI to end its wave C near 1,520 level to complete the mega wave (6) by around the middle of 2018, say another 8 months to go to complete the correction.

From the current level of  1,757 to 1,520 the drop is 237 points over the next 8 months. That will translate into about 29 points a month or about 7 points a week. Very likely the market is going to maintain its current half-death behaviour for many more months until mega wave (6) is completed.