Sunday, January 30, 2011

Dow - Possible paths

Dow dropped 166 points on Friday for a 1.4% drop, the biggest since mid-November, 2010. Since it managed to stay above the lower support line, it still can continue to zig-zag upwards moving within the uptrend channel as shown below.

However, in the next few days if Dow drops below the lower short-term trend-line as shown below, it will definitely mark the end of sub-wave 5.

But to confirm that it is also the end of wave (3), Dow must go below the longer term support line as shown below. Failure to break the 11,700 level will lead to a nine waves formation for wave (3). Under this scenario Dow can go to 12,500 within the next two to three months to complete the wave (3).

However if Dow can proceed to break the next resistance line and drop below the top of sub-wave 3 of 11,500 then it is of high probability that the major wave B has ended and major wave C has started, the target, at this moment, I put it at 5,000 by mid 2012.

Some of my friends said, " Why are you so pessimistic? "

Why? Looking at the two historical charts (1900 to 2010) below, unless my wave counts as shown below are wrong, whether Dow is heading for mega wave 6 as shown,

OR Dow is forming its super cycle wave (IV), the first stop is likely to be around 5,000.

So, be careful if Dow goes below 11,780, follow by 11,700 and finally 11,500.

Gong Xi Fa Cai

Friday, January 28, 2011

Dow - Last three sessions three 'Dojis'

In the last three trading sessions, Dow closed each session with a Doji as shown below.

A confirmation solid red candlestick can signal the end of mini wave 9 and a high chance that sub-wave 5 has ended. With that, at best Dow goes for sub-wave 6 and the worst case will be the starting of major wave C.

This can be one of the reasons why chewing gum is banned in Singapore

There are over 92 different health side effects associated with aspartame consumption. Aspartame dissolves into solution and can therefore travel throughout the body and deposit within any tissue.

Lee Kuan Yew

Being a strong believer in genetics, this is what he said recently

The basic assumption here is - everybody is given the same opportunity in education and one will rise or sink to the rightful level on par with one's IQ and EQ. There is no gardener with high IQ that ended up as gardener due to circumstances or lack of opportunity. Meritocracy is being practiced at all levels.

( There are people that classified meritocracy as racial in boleh land and this word is as sensitive as the one up there)

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Singapore STI - At a Crossroads

Singapore STI from October 2007 peak to March 2009 low consists of 5 waves, the March 2009 low has to be major wave A. The rebound since the low has to be major wave B that has 3 waves. The main question now is whether the wave B has been completed.

After reaching a high of around 3310 in November, STI has been moving horizontally within its upper resistance of 3310 and lower resistance of 3120. In the next few days if STI moves lower and goes below 3120, then the November closing high of 3305 is the end of major wave B as shown above, it also means the major wave C has started.

However if STI continues to move higher in the next few days to above 3310 with high volume, a possible wave count is as shown above. The next surge is mini wave iii of sub-wave (iii) of wave 3 of major wave B, the wave iii of (iii) of 3, it has to be very dynamic with no hesitation. Under this circumstance, STI will be able to trend upwards until end of 2011. This also means that Dow will also be able to zig-zag upwards until end of 2011. I hope I can draw a conclusion on its next direction within the next 5 trading days.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

You have got mail.

A couple decided to go to Florida for holiday. Because of hectic schedule the husband has to fly to Florida a day earlier. After checking into the Hotel, he saw a computer in the room and decided to send an email to his wife. However, he accidentally left out one letter in her email address.

Meanwhile, somewhere in Houston , a widow had just returned home from her husband's funeral. The widow decided to check her email expecting messages from relatives and friends. After reading the first message, she screamed and fainted.

The widow's son rushed into the room, found his mother on the floor, and saw the computer screen which read:


My Loving Wife

Subject: I've Arrived

Date: January 26, 2011

I know you're surprised to receive this email from me.
They have computers here now and you are allowed to send emails to your loved ones.
I've just arrived and have checked in.
I've seen that everything has been prepared for your arrival tomorrow.

Looking forward to seeing you then!!!!

Hope your journey is as uneventful as mine was.


P. S.

Sure is freaking hot down here!

Monday, January 24, 2011

Dow - The last surge?

Dow added 108 points (0.9%) to close at 11,980 to stay slightly above the short-term upper trendline.

It is possible and it happened quite often that the terminal movement end with a last surge (for bull run) or a last shakeout (for bear run). Dow may reach the longer term upper trendline as shown above to complete its wave 5 and the major wave B.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Dow - Closed higher to complete the mini wave v of 9

Dow closed the week with an up-candlestick on Friday to complete the mini wave v of sub-wave 9 of wave 5. S&P and Nasdaq moved in a different direction to close unchanged and lower respectively as their respective wave 5 were completed two days earlier as shown below.

If mega wave B for Dow can be confirmed next week, I will expect the Industrial Index of Bursa Malaysia to follow Dow rather closely in the same direction as shown below.

Tenang By-Election


MCA has no interest on the above

The President's interest and attention is on Normala's hands

"She wears gloves when she shakes hands. If you can accept this kind of Islamic value, go ahead and vote for PAS.”

It would be interesting if Perkasa, Dr. M or that 'Azan volume' demonstration group or that 'cow head' demonstration group can comment on MCA's words.

Click Lakbir Singh of Art Harun. Interesting article.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Parmesan Cheese

The way my daughter wrote about a piece of Parmesan cheese that she bought from one Italian delis in Maida Vale really amused me. By the way, Parmesan cheese is the name of a few kinds of Italian extra-hard cheeses. It is the cheese to go with Spaghetti and other typical Italian pasta.

"I took out the cheese from the fridge, unwrapped it and was surprised that it has no smell (Parmesan normally smells like vomit). The immediate thought was that I was conned. Anyway, I cut a little slice and tried it. It was delicious – delicate and very elegant. Like the Audrey Hepburn of Parmesan, whereas the normal stuff is like Marilyn Monroe – sharp and impactful. (Of course, some people like Marilyn Monroe (ahem!) and some like Audrey Hepburn) Needless to say, it enhanced the flavour of my soup tremendously. It was really really good cheese."

Mmmmm, Audrey Hepburn Parmesan

Wow! Marilyn Monroe Parmesan

She likes Audrey Hepburn

and I like Marilyn Monroe

"The cheese was so good that it inspired me to cook spaghetti (I normally prefer to cook rice). And it was good with spaghetti. Then, I cooked Spanish chicken with pasta and it was good with Spanish chicken with pasta. And now, there is only a little bit of Audrey Hepburn left in my fridge as I contemplate going back all the way to Maida Vale to buy some more."

Have to look for some Marilyn Monroe Parmesan to keep in my fridge.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Dow - When will mega wave B end ?

A double dips will bring Dow back to the 6,000 mark.

I don't think US Treasury has any problem of paying the debts on time. Geithner can always borrow money from Federal Reserve that can simply switch on the printer and start printing.

On Wednesday, Dow closed almost unchanged with a 'Doji', but S&P dropped almost 1% with a solid red candlestick. If both the Dow and the S&P moved below the lower supporting trend line, this is another possible ending point for the mega wave B.

However if prices do not move below the lower trend line, major wave 5 can continue to form mini waves 10, 11, 12 and 13 and can just drag on.

If there is a pullback from this level and if the magnitude is about 4% to 5%, about 500 points drop, it is also possible that this is a wave 6 pullback, Dow will continue with another up-trend wave 7.

I still believe that Dow is at the tail end of its mega wave B but it is impossible to tell when and where B will stop. If there is a way, the market cannot exist as there will be only sellers with no buyers.

The final journey is always exciting and very speculating. Risk is high and the return can also be equally high, stock selection is crucial.

Click 'On Staying Solvent' to read what Richard Rusell has to say.

The article (on staying solvent) is plain common sense and we couldn’t agree more. It also reflects our current thinking. Why anyone would want to stay in the market, when one major whack in the stock market would wipe out all gains is beyond us. There are always suckers. We hope you are not one of them. - editorial.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

BDI Continues to move lower

Baltic Dry Index that measures the shipping cost in transportation of commodity in bulk and has been commonly used by many as an indicator of economic activity, has been dropping for several months without any reversal sign. Whereas the CRB index which tracks the price movements of a basket of commodities has been moving consistently higher during the same period.

Dow has also been moving higher during the same period on expectation of improving economy and company earning. Some said the market is liquidity driven.

But personally, I think something is not right somewhere. It is either the BDI has to start to move higher to be inline with CRB and DOW or the later two have to drop rapidly to catch up with BDI.

Based on the long-term chart reading, whether the October 2007's peak is major wave 5 or the mega wave (III), chances are Dow and CRB have to go lower to be inline with BDI. When will Dow reverse its direction? How much longer can it last? One thing is for sure, the longer it dragged, the sharper the fall would be. This last ride can be very juicy, but once get caught, it can be very very painful too.

Monday, January 17, 2011

A Stupid Show

So, this is the insensitive MCA Lawyer that try to pave the way for another May 13

Acted like a new comer to this Boleh Land

Cannot be, right ?


Was he acted under instruction


the Tenang by-election is around the corner ?

Mnnnn Looked Possible

He wrote to the Prime Minister

The PM's office referred the matter to Minister in charge of religious affairs, Jamil Baharom. That means the complaint was OK to the PM, nothing wrong.

Jamil Baharom sent it to JAWI or the Federal Territories Islamic Department. That also means that the Minister found nothing wrong with the letter.

Then, why we have this

But Nuzul was calm and cool

I think she can be a better PM
At least
She has a better look

Another Sad Incident
Clik Tolerance My Ass!

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Dow - sub-wave 9 dragged on

There was no confirmation to the 'Hangman' candlestick, sub-wave 9 is expanding into 5 mini waves, i-ii-iii-iv and v. As I have mentioned previously, at market tops or bottoms, reversal candlesticks can be found but the appearance of reversal candlesticks do not guarantee that the market will change direction, they need confirmation.

Candlesticks technical analysis was developed by the Japanese businessmen in the 18th century for daily rice trading, it is reasonably good in determining short-term direction of price movement.


The older I get, the more clearly I remember things that never happened.
— Mark Twain

Friday, January 14, 2011

1 Malaysia

1Malaysia for all Malaysian

Tsu Koon : China says 1 Malaysia a good concept

A Chinese lawyer living nearby to the mosque, who had allegedly sought the help of Prime Minister Najib Razak in ordering a mosque to reduce the volume of its “azan” or call-to-prayer loudspeakers. The PM's office referred the matter to Minister in charge of religious affairs, Jamil Baharom, who then sent it to JAWI or the Federal Territories Islamic Department.

Angry at what they deem to be an insult to their religion and culture, more than 100 Muslim protesters burned effigies and demanded that the man be arrested under Internal Security Act, which allows detention without trial for indefinite periods of time.

“As a lesson to him and people like him, the government should also advise the complainant to move out to another neighbourhood or even change his citizenship to countries that suits his taste,”

Nurul Izzah is the Member of Parliament for the area, "Islam is a religion of justice, peace and the middle path. It does not condone acts of extreme hatred and bigotry. I urge all parties to exercise restraint, patience and mutual understanding," “Let us seek transparency in this matter and execrcise calm and collected reasoning in dealing with this matter."

In 2008 Teresa Kok was arrested under the ISA for allegedly asking a Puchong mosque to reduce the volume of its loudspeakers. Kok, who was released a week after her arrest, denied the allegation while the mosque’s committee members also came forward to defend the Selangor DAP chairman.

Remember the following incidence

To protest against the construction of an Indian temple in Shah Alam residential area

If writing a letter to request for the lowering of the volume of loudspeaker should be arrested under ISA, what should be the rightful punishment for this group of protesters???