Sunday, May 31, 2015

Dow - Major wave (6) has started.

Dow (18,010)

It appeared to me that Dow is heading for a 10% to 13% major wave (6) correction.

In the last few days, Dow has completed its mini wave i and ii and on Friday it set a low that is lower than its previous low. Be careful. Of course there are other possibilities and I could be wrong too.
FBMKLCI (1,747)
KLCI continued with its wave (ii) correction. Most probably it is heading for 100% retracement of its wave (i), which is about 10% correction from its April high. The next rebound can either be a wave b (about 70 points) rebound.
Or a 20 points sub-wave vi rebound.
KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.78)
KSL announced an earning of 8.82 sens a share for its first quarter, A good result with an annualised P/E of about 5 only.
KSL is about to complete its major wave 4 correction. I hope I am right and there is still a major wave 5 in front.
LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.44)
LCTH announced a disappointing quarterly earning of only 1.06 sens a share. Its last high can either be the major wave 3, a bearish option.
Or it is the wave (i) of its major wave 3, a bullish option. 

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.285)
Leesk announced a disappointing earning of 0.81 sen a share for its quarter ending 31st March. Its last high can either be its sub-wave i.
Or it is the wave (iii) of 3. Then the current wave (iv) pullback will be deeper and will last longer.


Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Dow - has wave (xiii) ended ?

Dow (18,041)

Dow dropped 190 points (-1.04%) at the close of Tuesday trading.

If its mini wave 3 has ended with minor wave v missing, a failure wave, then it is possible that the 'ending diagonal triangle', wave (xiii) has ended with this 190 points drop. If Dow continues to drop further in the next few days and goes below the lower trend-line, then, to be safe, I am going to monitor Dow for the major wave (6) correction for a 12% pullback to 16200 level,
FBMKLCI (1,764)
KLCI has started its wave (ii) correction since early April, much earlier than the Dow. If wave (ii) is going for a 100% retracement of its wave (i), then KLCI will ultimately drop 10.5% to 1,673 level.
With 1MDB's problems, UMNO's internal power struggle and a weakening Ringgit, this wave (ii) may not be a simple a-b-c correction, but tentatively I shall monitor closely for a simple a-b-c

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Weekly Update

Dow (18,232)

Dow is more likely to form an 'ending diagonal triangles' as shown below. It is likely to finish its mini wave 3 of its wave (xiii) and major wave (5) with more record breaking. I am expecting a 13% correction for its major wave (6).

Another less possible option is as shown below. Dow will punch through the upper trend-line with more record breaking to complete its wave (xv).


FBMKLCI (1,787)
KLCI is about to complete the wave a of its sub-wave ii. I am assuming an a-b-c wave ii. This corrective wave ii can also take some other form.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.87)
KSL is about to complete its major wave 4.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.475)
I hope I am right that LCTH is forming its wave 2.

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.305)
Leesk is either forming its wave (iv),
Or, it is forming its sub-wave iii of (iii) of 3, very bullish but I am not so sure.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Weekly Update.

Dow (18,272)

Dow ended the week at 18,272 level. My two options for Dow remained the same. It is either an 'ending diagonal triangles' wave (xiii),

or it is sub-wave iii of wave (xv).
FBMKLCI (1,811)
For KLCI it is either forming its sub-wave ii
or it is forming its mini wave 3.
KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.89)
KSL is about to complete its major wave 4.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.505)

Very likely it is forming its wave (v).


Sunday, May 10, 2015

Weekly Update

Dow (18,191)

Dow surged 267 points (+1.49%) on Friday. If Dow is forming an 'ending diagonal triangle' wave (xiii), this could be the mini wave 3 of v of (xiii), especially when Dow failed to go above the upper trend-line.

If the assets bubble is not expected to burst in 2015 and 2016, the coming pullback is likely to be the major wave (6), a 13% correction.

Is this going to be another 'Sell in May and go away' scenario.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, since 1950, Dow has had an average gain of only 0.3% during the May-October period. The average gain was 7.5% during the November-April period.

However, if Dow can go above the upper trend-line, another possibility is as shown below, Dow is forming the sub-wave iii of its wave (xv).

No major correction is expected until wave (xvii) has ended.

FBMKLCI (1,807)

The two possibilities for KLCI remained the same. It is either forming its mini wave 2.

Or it is forming its sub-wave ii, a maximum 10% correction, in tandem with the 13% major wave (6) correction for Dow.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm01.87)

Unfortunately KSL is forming the major wave 4 correction. It is heading for Rm 1.60.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.48)

Hopefully Friday's rebound is the beginning of wave (v) of its major wave 3.

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.30)

The magnitude of mini wave 5 is rather small, a failure 5. It is likely that Leesk is forming its sub-wave ii of wave (iii).


Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Bursa Malaysia

FBMKLCI (1,820)

If KLCI is forming a lower degree mini wave 1-2, the correction is about there. I don't expect the mini wave 2 to drop below 1,800 level.

However if it is forming a higher degree sub-wave i-ii, then the current correction is likely to drag until June to complete the sub-wave ii.

After 3 hours of trading, Dow dropped 93 points (-0.5%) to 17,834 level.

If Dow is forming an 'ending diagonal triangle' wave (xiii), the minor wave 2 of v is about there.


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 59.16 a barrel)

At the starting of wave 4 which is expected to last until 2017. The next plunge to below US$ 30 a barrel, the wave 5, is likely to be caused by the 'pop' of assets bubble.

Dow (18,024)

Forming the mini wave 3 of sub-wave v of  'ending diagonal triangle' wave (xiii).

Since I am expecting the assets bubble to burst in 2017, the next pullback is more likely to be major wave (6) instead of mega wave 2 correction.

FBMKLCI (1,818)

KLCI is forming its mega wave 5 which is expected to last until early 2017.

At this moment it is very likely that KLCI is forming its mini wave 2 which may end at around 1,780

Or it may go for a 100% retracement to the starting of its mini wave 1 at around 1,673.

Let's look at Khoo Kay Peng's group of companies this week.

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.205)

From its major wave 1's peak of 32 sens (at the beginning of January 2015), it has dropped more than 30% so far.

Since it has punched through its 23 sens support level in the last few days, Mui is likely to go to either the 19 sens level for a 40% pullback or the 16 sens level for a 100% retracement to the starting of its major wave 1 to complete its major wave 2.

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.225)

Since its December's surge has only 3 waves, it is likely that the surge is a X wave rebound.

PMCorp is forming a a-b-c-X-a-b-c corrective wave. Don't forget that it has zero borrowing and its cash per share is 17 sens.

Pan Malaysia Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.285)

A fundamentally very weak company. Rightfully it should stay at around 6 to 10 sens.

Since the announcement of Dr. Yu Kuan Chon's proposal to take over 69% from Khoo Kay Peng in December 2014, PM Holding went to as high as 52 sens.

My reading for  this stock is as shown below. I hope I am right.