Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Go for the 'Third Force'

To vote for Mahathir is out of the question at this moment and to vote for BN+Pas is out of my way, I have no choice now but to go for the 'third force'.

If BN's candidate is a Malay and if Gerakan can capture all the previous DAP's vote plus some previous MCA vote, Gerakan has high possibility of winning.

But if BN put in a MCA member with genuine support from UMNO and partial support from Pas, it is hard to predict the winner. I am assuming some Malay voters would vote for Bersatu's candidate - a Malay.

But if BN put in a MCA member but with little support given and with majority of the UMNO and Pas members go along the racial line in voting, then Bersatu can win the election with very big margin under the Malay and Muslim agenda. If MCA lose the contest, BN will have very good reason to take the seat from MCA in the next General Election. That means BN's target is to win this same seat not now but in the GE-15 with a Malay candidates. By putting in a MCA candidate in this by-election UMNO can - firstly to pave the way for a Pas or Umno candidate in GE-15, secondly to test the power of Malay unity and thirdly to give a favor to Mahathir and at the same time to convince Mahathir the possibility of forming a new Government with UMNO, Pas, Bersatu, half-PKR, GPS plus others such as MIC and MCA to maintain a superficially multi-racial government.


Thursday, October 24, 2019

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.875)

Insas added 3 sens to end the day at 87.5 sens with volume of 4.1 million shares. It is forming its mini wave 3 at the moment. Since mini wave 1 added 6.5 sens, mini wave 3 can either end at 90.5 sens (x1.618) or at 97 sens (x2.618) before mini wave 4 correction takes place.

Since mega wave (1) gained 200% and mega wave (3) gained 225% by assuming mega wave (5) can add on 200%, same as that for mega wave (1), mega wave (5) is likely to end at Rm1.92.


Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Giverny, France

Visited Claude Monet's home in Giverny, France recently.

Remember Monet's famous painting 'The Water Lily Pond 1899'? It was last sold for US$43 million in New York, that was about Rm180 million ringgit !!!

The pond is still there and well maintained after 120 years. I should have taken a photo of the pond with the bridge.

And his old house is well maintained too

His garden is beautiful.

And the pond in another view


Monday, October 21, 2019

Malaysian Ringgit - Weak for the next 6 months

USD/MYR (4.1815)

USD/MYR is at the last journey of its mini wave 3 to end its wave (ii).

From the weekly chart, in the next few weeks, USD/MYR is likely to drop to around 4.15 to complete its minor wave iv before moving up to around 4.27 to complete the minor wave v of mini wave 3 of wave (ii).

After that, hopefully by second or third quarter of 2020, USD/MYR can start its wave (iii), which is expected to go below 4.00. Ultimately the wave C of (2) is expected to end below 3.00.

If wave (i) and (ii) took more than 3 years to complete, it is reasonable to assume that wave (iii) and (iv) will take at least 4 years to complete. Wave (v) can be quite unpredictable, it can fall short or it can over-shoot. Allowing 2 years for wave (v), Ringgit is likely to peak in 2026.

Hopefully the bull for the Ringgit can start running by the second half of 2020. Am I too optimistic in view of the pessimistic political scene at this moment?


Saturday, October 19, 2019

Dow - Going South?

Dow (26,770)

Dow dropped 255 points (-0.95%) on Friday. Is this the starting of mini wave 3 of iii of E of its major wave 8?

FBMKLCI (1,571)

KLCI has a small rebound in the last 5 trading days to form the mini wave 4 of v of (iii). The next journey down will be the mini wave 5 of v of (iii).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.825)

Insas has started to form the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii in the last few trading days.

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm 0.045)

Fintec is a technology incubation and investment holding company. It operates in four business segments: technology incubation, biofuel products, information technology and biotechnology products.

Fintec has invested in 6 listed companies: Focus Dynamics Group Bhd 24.51% (500 million shares), Vsolar Group Bhd 15.67% (60 million shares), AT Systematization Bhd 15.06% (70 million shares), Netx Holdings Bhd 11.16% (264 million shares), DGB Asia Bhd 7.37% (55.7 million shares) and Mlab Systems Bhd 11.2% (75 million shares).

At last Friday closing price for these 6 companies, the market price for Fintec's holding of these companies is worth a total of Rm214.90 million. If this figure is divided by Fintec 635 million shares, that is 34 sens per each Fintec share.

For quarter ending 30/6/2019, earning per share is 4 sens ( due to appreciation of investment holdings), net assets is 28 sens, net cash per share is 3.7 sens. Fintec closing price on Friday was 4.5 sens only. The only problem with Fintec is its operating profit was always in the red.

Based on the closing price of its holdings on 30/9/2019, I expect Fintec to announce an earning of around 12 sens a share with net assets at 39 sens a share. Net cash per share is expected to remain at 3.7 sens. Will Fintec's share price remain at 4.5 sens when it announces its next quarterly earning in November?

My reading for Fintec is as shown below, it is about to complete its sub-wave v of (iii). Next rebound will be the wave (iv) of C of (2).     

This is a greatly undervalued stocks with operating profit always in the red. At last Friday closing price of 4.5 sens, if I deduct the 3.7 sens of cash per share, I am paying only 0.8 sens for the rest of its investment holdings that is worth 34 sens a share plus its other businesses and assets.

But there were investors that kept on selling Fintec at 4.5 sens. Why?


Saturday, October 12, 2019

Dow - Still on wave iii of E ?

Dow (26,816)

1 month after my last posting, my reading for Dow remained the same. It is of higher probability that Dow is forming the wave E of its major wave 8 at the moment.

By now, Dow has completed its wave ii but the ii is not high enough to form a perfect 'double-top' reversal pattern. Probability is high that wave iii of E is in progress. The 3-wave up in the last 7 trading days is likely to be the mini wave 1-2 of iii. If Dow starts to move lower next week, very likely mini wave 2 has ended and the mini wave 3 of iii has started.

However, if Dow can continue to move higher from its current level and can punch through its ceiling and continue to pull away, then I have no choice but to accept a scenario that I classified as unlikely that Dow is forming its major wave 9 since January 2019.

I considered the second scenario as unlikely because wave C has only 3 waves. To me, Dow is forming a perfect 3-3-3-3-3 expanding triangles.

FBMKLCI (1,556)

KLCI continues with its wave (iii) of C formation.

In the last one month CI has been forming the mini wave 3 of v of (iii). Next will be the mini wave 4 rebound before the mini wave 5's drop.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.81)

Very likely Insas is on its major wave 3

It has completed its major wave 2 in January 2019. Since then It has formed its wave (i)-(ii) and sub-wave i-ii and mini wave 1-2.

Mini wave 2 is a 3-3-5 a-b-c. Hopefully Insas can start to form its mini wave 3 that can end above Rm0.90.