Sunday, August 31, 2014

Weekend Update

Dow (17,098)

Dow added only 97 points during the week. It continued to form the sub-wave v of its wave (xi). Wave (xii) correction is likely to start in September. Be extremely careful on completion of wave (xiii) in early 2015.

Wave (xiii) can be the end of major wave (5) to be followed by a higher degree 15% or more major wave (6) correction, if we are lucky.

If we are unlucky, wave (xiii) can also be the end of mega wave 1 to be followed by mega wave 2 that can drop to 10,655 level, the bottom of major wave (4), for a 40% drop. The worst that can happen is a 100% retracement to March 2009's low of 6,547 level for a 65% drop.

FBMKLCI (1,866)

KLCI is forming the sub-wave iv of its wave (v) of major wave 3. The main question is whether sub-wave iv is completed.

If KLCI continues to move higher from its current level, then sub-wave iv is completed and sub-wave v in progress.

But if KLCI continues to drop further, then it is forming the wave c of its sub-wave iv.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 3.95)

KSL failed to move higher on Friday, but the possibility of forming its mini-wave 7 is still there.

However, if it continues to move lower next week, then it is forming the wave c of its sub-wave iv. It announced a strong earning of 20.50 sens per share on Thursday.

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 0.78)

GPharos announced a poor earning of 0.2 sen per share. It is on its way to complete the wave c of its wave (iv).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.25)

PWorth announced a small quarterly profit of Rm168,000.00 for the first time after many quarters of losses. I hope it has finally turned around and the 16 sens low in June is the turning point for PWorth. The next up is the sub-wave v of wave (iii).


Thursday, August 28, 2014

KSL Holdings Bhd

KSL ended Thursday trading with 12 sens gain at Rm3.97 with high volume. If it can break Rm 4.00 and move higher, that will be its mini-wave 7 of sub-wave iii.

It reported a strong quarterly earning of 20.5 sens a share with Net assets at Rm3.70 per share.

Looking at its long-term chart, the current run-up is so dynamic because it is the sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 3 of mega wave (3), after completing its 'inverted head and shoulders' formation.

There is another property stock that has formed an 'inverted head and shoulders' pattern and has not yet fly is Glomac Bhd (Rm 1.13)

Its earning is considered weak. For its last quarter ending 30th April, it managed to make only 3.03 sens a share. Net assets reported is Rm 1.22 per share but I believe its net assets should be much more than that with the rapid appreciation in value of its properties over the last few years.

The chart looks nice but if it is not ready to move, holding it over months at its current level can be very frustrating, especially for senior citizens that have not much time left. :)


Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Priceworth International Bhd - The dynamic mini-wave 3 of (iii)

PWorth moved up strongly today to close at 26.5 sens with record volume of 86 millions shares.

It is a typical mini-wave 3 of wave (iii), so dynamic and powerful. What sort of game they are playing ? I don't know, I just follow the chart, so far so good.


Saturday, August 23, 2014

Weekend Update

Dow (17001)

Sub-wave v of wave (xi) in progress

FBMKLCI (1870)

FBMKLCI is forming its major wave 3.

It is at the tail-end of its major wave 3. The next up is likely to be the sub-wave v of its wave (v) and that could be the end of its major wave 3, unless the major wave 3 has 9 waves.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm3.86)

If KSL moves lower next week, it is possible that sub-wave iii has been completed as shown.

However KSL performed strongly on Friday. If it can maintain its up-trend next week, it is more likely that the previous pullback is mini-wave 6 and the next up is the mini-wave 7.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.22)

If PWorth can move higher next week then it is forming its sub-wave iii.

If it moves lower next week then it may drop to the 19 sens level to complete its A-B-C wave (ii).


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

My stocks and Dow

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm0.22)

I guess PWorth is having its mini-wave 2 pullback.

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm0.255)

It is sub-wave iv correction of its wave (i) of major wave 5 for PM Corp. With cash backing of 19 sens per share and zero borrowing, at 25.5 sens a share, it is cheap.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm3.88)

The current correction for KSL is either the minor wave ii of its mini-wave 5 of sub-wave iii,

OR it is the sub-wave iv correction. Mini-wave 5 has ended.

Dow - Another Prediction

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is a financial newsletter writer. His 2009 book, 'The Great Depression Ahead' appeared on the New York Times Bestseller list.

"Every crash has taken us to new lows," he pointed out, "so the last crash took us down to 6,442 on the Dow and the next projection would be around late 2016, early 2017 somewhere around 5,500 - 6,000."

Click 'Dow-6,000' for the report.


Monday, August 18, 2014

Priceworth International Bhd

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm0.23)

PWorth added 2 sens with high volume of 20 million shares changed hand today.

It opened with a gap and formed a solid candlestick to confirm the starting of its wave (iii). 28 sens is likely to be its first stop. 

Eucalyptus Tree the Golden plant of PWorth


Thursday, August 14, 2014

Dow - Forming sub-wave v of wave (xi) ?

It looks more and more likely that Dow has completed its sub-wave iv and has started its sub-wave v of its wave (xi).


Wednesday, August 13, 2014

KSL. ASB and PM Corp

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 3.39)

Mini-wave 5 in progress with declining volume, a sign of losing its momentum. The fifth wave is always unpredictable. If sub-wave iii has only 5 waves, then mini-wave 5 will mark the end of sub-wave iii. Since sub-wave ii is long duration and shallow, sub-wave iv can be short duration with sharp pullback. But ultimately it will reach Rm 5 or Rm 6, that's what is in my mind.

Advance Synergy Bhd ( Rm 0.23)

It is possible that ASB has started its wave (v).

The green candlestick today can be the starting of sub-wave iii of wave (v).

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.25)

PM Corp is forming the wave (i) of  its major wave 5 currently.

It has completed its sub-wave i and ii. It is likely that sub-wave iii of wave (i) has started.


Monday, August 11, 2014

Golden Pharos, KSL Holdings and Farms Best

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 0.995)

I expect GPharos to move lower to around 80 sens to complete the wave c of its wave (iv) as shown below.

In the last two trading sessions, it appeared to me that its price was being supported at its current level. If the support is strong enough to keep its price at its current level, another possible wave count is as shown below, where GPharos is forming its sub-wave iv. There will be one more surge to complete the sub-wave v.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 3.08)

If I am right, the current pullback is the mini wave 4 correction.

Farms Best Bhd (Rm 0.695)

This is one of my most frustrating stocks. Its performance to date in term of price appreciation is the worst amongst the stocks that I have.

In January 2014, Farms Best has announced a merger proposal with SHH Malaysia that has the same type of poultry business like Farms Best but is operating in China. Click 'Proposed Merger' for details

If I don't bother about the proposal and assuming what is happening and what is going to happen will be reflected in the chart pattern, then I have to say Farms Best looks bullish at this moment.

Since September 2013, Farms Best has formed an overlapping waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) to complete its major wave 1. I personally termed this formation as 3 soldiers. The time to move into stocks with this type of chart formation is when it has completed its wave 2.

Below are some examples of charts with 3 soldiers formation.

Let's see whether Farms Best can be another classical case for 3 soldiers.


Saturday, August 9, 2014

Dow - Nothing to worry

Dow (16,553)

If my wave count is correct, Dow has not reach its crucial possible turning point at end of wave (xiii) of its major wave (5) of mega wave 1.

The current correction is only the sub-wave iv of its wave (xi). We still have sub-wave v, wave (xii) and wave (xiii) in front. The only question now is whether sub-wave iv has ended.

I expect Dow to complete the crucial wave (xiii) before end of 2015. Watch out for that. If that also marked the end of major wave (5) and mega wave 1, under the worst case scenario, the mega wave 2 pullback can go all the way to March 2009's low of 6547 for a 100% retracement.

I am talking about mega wave 1 and 2 of super wave VII.

Bursa Malaysia FBMKLCI (1,839)

FBMKLCI  dropped in tandem with Dow. It dropped 28 point (-1.5%) last Friday. From the long term chart, FBMKLCI is forming it major wave 3 currently.

So far FBMKLCI has completed wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and sub-wave i, ii and iii. Sub-wave iv in progress.

I expect sub-wave iv to reach a possible low of 1,800 before the next sub-wave v starts to run.

Global Oriental Bhd (Rm 1.04)

Only yesterday, while going through my older posts, I discovered that I have over looked some comments/messages. James asked about GOB in April when GOB was forming the wave (i) of its major wave 3.

After touching a high of Rm 1.17 in April, GOB has been moving side way to form its wave (ii). It is forming its wave c of wave (ii) at this moment. GOB is likely to reach 95 sens to complete its wave (ii) before starting its dynamic wave (iii) of 3 of (3).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.20)

Mr. Phuah has made some comments on the Rm 50 million unsecured redeemable convertible notes (RCN)

Uuder PWorth 'Multiple Proposals', one of the proposal is to issue Rm 50 million of RCN comprising 5 equal tranches of Rm 10 million each. Each tranche is divided into many sub-tranches that can be issued from time to time.

The conversion price for RCN into PWorth shares is depended on when each tranche subscription agreement is signed.

The conversion price is either equal to 130% of the 'volume weighted average price' for 45 business days prior to the date signing the RCN subscription agreement, or equal to 80% of the 'average price of 3 consecutive days' within that 45 days.

I think Tranche 1 (Rm 10 million) RCN subscription agreement was signed on 5th March. On 28 Feb. PWorth closed at 18 sens and on 3 and 4 of March, the closing price was 17.5 sens. So 80% of 3 days average is 14.1 sens.

Tranche 2 RCN subscription agreement must have been signed after PWorth set its record low of 16 sens on 6th, 9th and 10th of June (Or they purposely pushed the priced to 16 sens for 3 days, exactly 3 days). So 80% of 3 days average price of 16 sens is 12.8 sens.

The 71 million shares under tranche 1 and 15.6 million shares from part of tranche 2 must have been sold above 20 sens and have been absorbed (Who are the big buyers ?). Volume traded from 23rd June to 8th August totaled 382 million (there must be a lot of day traders).

There are still 62.5 million share converted at 12.8 sens not yet listed.

When are they going to sign and issue tranche 3, 4 and 5 and at what conversion price, I don't know. These are big fishes games. Are they going to push the price down to 16 sens again (wave (ii) 100% retracement) and sign the agreement or are they going to sign at 20 sens conversion and push the price to 30 sens to unload ? I also don't know. But I believe in chart reading and firmly believe (have to lah) whatever they are doing and are going to do will be reflected in the chart. So I go by the chart. 

And of course I can be wrong.