Saturday, March 14, 2009

Commodity Trend

The bull is staring at you.

The Baltic Dry index (BDI) after touching a low of 663 in December, has been moving up steadily. Friday closing of 2122 is more than 200% higher than the 663 low. However, it is still far below its peak of 11,600 set in 2007. During the last one month of consolidation phase, its is still trending upward which is a bullish sign.

Compare to BDI the CRB commodity index is lagging behind. Since 18th February it has touched the low of 200 three times. I suspect the 200 level is the bottom, it is possible that CRB has started its uptrend movement. CRB has to follow BDI, if the demand for ship to transport commodity is moving up, the demand for commodity must have increased and economic activities must be picking up.

The Brent Crude Future after touching a low of US$36.61 on 24th December, it was able to hold above its low. After touching a height of US$50.44 in early January, it moved down to US$39.55 in February, which is higher than its previous low of US$36.61. If it can move higher than its previous height of US$50.44, an uptrend for crude oil can be confirmed. I am expecting its confirmation after Dow has bottom out before end of this month. My view on commodity is rather bullish.

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