S&P 500 in mega wave VI Option.

Since Dow and S&P 500 should move more or less in the same trend, it may be possible to deduce the likely option for Dow based on S&P's chart pattern.

Based on the above wave count, it is possible that the March 2000's peak of 1,527 is the end of mega wave V. Since march 2000 the market is either in the process of forming its mega wave VI as shown below or forming its super wave (IV) (not shown).

At this moment S&P is either forming the ending wave of the major wave 1 of mega wave VII.


Or it is forming major wave X of the A-B-C-X-A-B-C wave pattern.



It is possible that Dow too is forming either its major wave 1 of mega wave VII or major wave X of mega wave VI. But whatever it is the market is at the upper reaches closer to its peak. I personally think that the risk is high to hold stocks at this level. I would prefer to hold more cash than stocks.




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Dow - A liquidity driven market

Dow gained 233 points on Monday with a solid candlestick. Since the closing price stayed below 13,331 level, the Option 1 scenario as shown above remains valid.


However, in the next few days, if Dow instead of breaking the lower trend line, it moves higher and breaks the previous high of 13,331 and proceeds to break the 13,500 level, then Dow is more likely to go for the Option 2 scenario of forming a big 'Double top' reversal pattern by the end of 2012, supported by liquidity all the way to 14,164 level.




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Lynas - Why?

Australia is so big
and yet
It has no place for Lynas's plant

Click "Lim guan Eng's Letter to Nick Curtis" for reading pleasure.



.

Dow - Option 1 & 2 - Timeframe Part II

As mentioned in my 7th March 2012's post, if Dow is heading for Option 2, there is no immediate danger as major wave B is likely to last until end of 2012.


It is Option 1 that we have to be careful as wave 2 of major wave C has either ended or about to end very very soon.


In the wave count as shown below, I assumed that wave 2 of major wave C has ended. This wave count can be confirmed if Dow can break the lower trend line in the coming week and if it can proceed to break the 12,701 level, the possibility of Option 1 is high but we still cannot rule out Option 2 until Dow drops below the 12,000 level.




.

IEM - See no evil, hear no evil ???

On the possible structural problems of Lynas Plant at Gebeng, Kuantan as reported by New York Times, I have sent an email to The Institution of Engineers, Malaysia (IEM) a few weeks ago but unfortunately there is no respond to my email so far. I would be very disappointed if they play dumb dumb.

I have been in this Engineering profession for 37 years, I am always very proud in telling people that it is the works and dedications and professionism of engineers that people can go on happily and conviniently with their everyday life. People just take things for granted, water, power, transportation, communication, internet, and so on until there is a power failure, landslides, flooding, building collapsed, lift failure .......

As an Engineer I am really concerned when I read the following from http://www.savemalaysia-stoplynas.blogspot.com/.

Serious construction problems of the LAMP -

22 concrete tanks in the processing area was defective and will result in corrosive and radioactive materials leaking onto the plant floor and into the ground eventually. These tanks were not moisture-proof, which is a standard engineering practice for this kind of plant. It is especially essential in a damp swampy environment.

We have and continue to receive confidential accounts of failed electrical wiring and installation, failed hydro tests where major tanks with structural cracks and leaks were detected, broken underground water pipes that need to be redone and so forth.

A large section of the plant has sunk. Many of these defects could not be easily fixed or safely repaired. Lynas is believed to have grossed over the problem and have summarily covered up the defects. The full extent of the construction defects and design problems can only be uncovered by a thorough independent engineering audit.

I have sent another email to IEM 2 hours ago, forwarding the above reported engineering defects to them. I hope they won't adopt the same attitude as AELB,"the plant has been certified safe by a registered Engineer, we will hold the engineer responsible if ...... ". AELB just brushed the New York Times report aside. Very irresponsible, very unprofessional, the structure involved is a rare earth refinery, not a toilet, it is a national catastrophe if something goes wrong.

Click "NGOs statement against Lynas" to read more.

.

The Shadows

Just music only tonight.

John Lennon once claimed that "before Cliff and the Shadows there had been nothing worth listening to in British music."



Formed in 1958 as a 'backing band' for Cliff Richard, under the name 'The Drifters', the original members were Hank Marvin as lead guitarist, Jet Harris on bass guitar, Bruce Welch as rhythm guitarist and Tony Meehan, the drummer. To avoid confusion with the US R&B vocal group with the same name, they changed the name to 'The Shadows' in 1959. In 1960 they released their first hit 'Apache', that topped the charts for 5 weeks.



They were the best instrumental group on guitars at that time.



The unique combination of guitar sounds became their typical one and only one brand of music, 'The Shadows'.











Those were the days.



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Lynas - Tasmanian Devil

Prime Minister Najib gave his assurance today, the Lynas project would not proceed should it is scientifically proven to harm the people's health and the environment.

"We will never compromise the safety of the people and the environment." he said.

If he really care about the small Peninsular Malaysia, so small that it can be buried completely by the Western Australian Desert, just ask Lynas to go back to Meenaar, the originally planned location for its rare earth refinery.



Just a simple logic, if the Malaysian Government were to impose on Lynas the same stringent conditions as the Australian Government has on Lynas with regard to health, safety and environment, why should Lynas send the rare earth concentrate 4,800 km to Malaysia instead of sending them to Meenaar that is only 700km away? No businessman will do that. Lynas simply loved 'Malaysia Boleh'. Australian Government will never issue a 'Temporary Operating Licence' to a rare earth plant's application that contained no proposal on how and where to keep its radioactive waste.

And if the refinery can be so beneficial to the host country as claimed, why Lynas, being an Australian firm wanted to give all the benefits to Malaysia instead of to its own country?

I can never trust what Lynas said. They needed this project to save the company that has been losing money for years.

This is a Tasmanian Devil

It is possible that Lynas has played out the dumb-dumb Pahang State Government. Lynas knew very well any sensible local resident will object to the project, so they kept the whole project in the dark until the plant was more than 50% completed. By that time, due to public outcry, when the Government oficers finally knew what was this thing call 'Rare Earth', and finally understood what they have actually approved, it is too late and very difficult for the Government to stop the project. The government simply could not tell the people they didn't know what they were doing and what they have approved.