Dow (23,775) - Has the wave B rebound ended?

Dow rebounded 260 points (1.11%) on Friday after the US House approved the $484 billion coronavirus rescue package on Thursday night and President Trump signed into law the package on Friday. The rebound in oil price is another positive factor.

Dow reached an intraday high of 24,268 on April 17, gaining 6055 points or 33.2% from its low of 18213 recorded on March 23. If Dow instead of moving higher, it starts to move lower next week and break the top of wave (i) the 22,595 level, then very likely Dow has completed its wave B.

But if Dow can hold above the 22,595 level and can move higher, it is possible that the current correction is the wave (iv). Dow has another 3 waves to go, wave (v), (vi) and (vii) before ending its wave B.

But if Dow can continue with its Friday's rebound on Monday, then it has 3 more sub-waves to go, the sub-wave iii, iv and v to complete the wave (iii) as well as the wave B before turning south.

But at the back of my head I still have this seemed to be impossible alternative at this moment as the world economy is heading for recession with possibility of great depression further ahead, the mega wave (3) scenario.

China is able to contain its Covid-19 and has started to rebuild its virus-battered economy ahead of all other nations. With cheap oil, close to zero interest rate with and economy stimulus packages on the table, the Chinese economy should be improving and consumption should be picking up. Hopefully this is the starting of the next up cycle of China to be followed by all other countries, one by one that are lagging behind in the fight against the virus.

The following charts show the current situation of Covid-19 in some of the countries. In each chart I plotted the cumulative virus cases (blue line), the 10-day moving average of cases (red line) and the rate of increase of cases (green line).

China is out of trouble water with South Korea following closely

France will be next to recover as the 'cumulative cases' and the '10-day moving average' have started to converge and the 'rate of increase' is approaching zero. Germany is following closely behind France.

For Italy and Spain, 'rate of increase' are 1.68% and 2.32% respectively. They will take another 2 weeks to reach 1%. The blue and red lines are expected to converge after that.

US and UK need more time as the 'rate of increase' is still above 4%.

Malaysia looks promising with the 'rate of increase' at 1.24% and the blue and red lines start to converge. Singapore is bad due to the foreign workers cluster. But things appeared to be under control now as the 'rate of increase' has started to drop again.

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