Monday, April 6, 2020

Dow (22,680) - Jumped 7.73%

At the close of Monday trading Dow surged 1,627 points or a fantastic 7.73% for the day. If Dow can move higher from here this week, it is on its wave (iii) of B.


But if Dow losses steam and starts to move lower starting tomorrow, then most likely it is not yet out of its wave (ii) of B formation.


There is this very unlikely option at this moment and some said 'zero possibility' in view of the Covid-19 pandemic that has the capability of turning a recession into a great depression, but technically still can be considered as an option - the mega wave (3) scenario that I mentioned previously.


The magnitude of pullback is 38.4% at its March 23's low of 18,213.

But looking at the long-term chart the plotting was based on closing price, the March 23 closing price was 18,591 that gave a 37% correction that is about the magnitude of the previous mega wave (ii) (-36.1%) and mega wave (iv) (-35.6%) corrections of the super wave V uptrend.


The mega wave (3) of the super wave V began after the famous 19 October 1987's 'Black Monday Crush'. From its low of 1,738 level, Dow moved to its mega wave (3) high of 11,750 for a 576% gain over a 13-year bull run from October 1987 to September 2000.

Another factor that needs to be looked into is the reasons the caused the October 1987 crash and the reasons for the current crash, they are of very much difference nature.

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