Monday, September 30, 2013

Dow - Can 15,000 hold ?




I will be with a group of 'Ah Kong, Ah Ma' touring Korea for the next 10 days. During this period, I don't expect much changes to the market sentiment.

I believe Dow won't plunge this year, Bernanke will make sure that the market won't collapse before he steps down. Investors are worried about the 'US debt ceiling' at this moment. Like the fiscal cliff in 2012, it will be settled soon.

I also believe that when US is OK, Bursa Malaysia should be OK too, unless some mad fellows started shooting in Chow Kit or Petaling Street.

Dow dropped about 125 points to 15,133 level after 3 hours of trading.


Possibility 1 : If the current correction is the sub-wave ii of wave (ix), Dow should not drop below the lower trend line. The magnitude for sub-wave ii is about there, around 15,100 level.



Possibility 2 : If Dow continues to move lower in the next few days and drop below the lower trend line. Then I will be looking for major wave (6) at around 14,000 level. Head and shoulder reversal pattern will be formed.




Possibility 3 : At the back of my mind, I always keep this possibility as an option that I can not rule out at this moment. More confirmation is needed.


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