Under this scenario, October 2007 high of 14,164 is the major wave 5. The 53% drop in 17 months to 6,547 by March 2009 is wave A of the major wave 6. The uptrend since March 2009 is the rebound wave B that consists of three waves 1-2-3. The five waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) from March 2009 until April 2010 is wave 1 of B. The two months correction in May and June is wave 2 of B.
Wave 3 of B started in early July. By end of July, sub-wave (i) of wave 3 of B was completed. The question now is whether the last two days rebound signal the completion of sub-wave (ii) ? and the starting of sub-wave (iii) ? All these depend on whether the 10300 level can hold. Dow at this moment has dropped about 180 points to around 10,200 after two hours of trading. It appears that sub-wave (ii) has not been completed yet.
Anyway sub-wave (ii) is expected to be completed soon and I expect sub-wave (iii), (iv) and (v) to be completed before end of September 2010.The next down trend wave C of major wave 6 is going to be very damaging, and if wave C has the same magnitude as wave A that dropped 53%, the end of major wave 6 can go to as low as 5,300 if wave B ends at 10300.
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