Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.655) - Running a-b-c

Duta dropped another 1.5 sens today to close at 65.5 sens. The drop so far is bigger than what I have anticipated, that means my previous wave count is no longer valid.

Since the previous run up has only three waves, it has to be a 'b' wave, it is a running a-b-c wave (iv). And since the magnitude of wave (iii) is so much shorter than the magnitude of wave (i), very likely the current major wave 3 is going to have nine waves.

From the 30-minute interval chart, at this moment Duta is forming the mini wave 3 of c of (iv).

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Dutaland Bhd (Rm0.675)

From the 30-minute interval chart, today's 5.5 sens (7.5%) drop is likely to be the mini wave 4 correction.

If Duta can start to move higher to form its mini wave 5, that should be the end of its sub-wave iii.

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Inari and Insas

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 2.84)

Inari has started forming its sub-wave v of its wave (vii).

If its wave (vii) has only five waves, by end of this week or early next week wave (vii) can be completed. It will be followed by the wave (viii) correction which is likely to take a month or two to complete.

After that there will be a wave (ix) run-up to complete the major wave 7.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.995)

Hopefully Insas has completed its mini wave 2 and mini wave 3 is on the way. Very likely this is only the sub-wave i of its wave (v).

Looking at its 10-year chart, its wave (v) as well as its major wave 3 is likely to end around Rm 1.30 level.

Personally I considered Insas as a greatly undervalued stock.

Looking at its corporate structure, its 19.84 % (401 million share) holding of Inari alone is worth Rm1139 million, which is Rm1.80 per Insas share, if I divide Rm1139 million by 632 million of Insas share.

Its latest quarterly earning is 5.24 sens a share with net assets of Rm2.34 per share.


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Weekly Update

Dow (23,434)

Dow is forming the minor wave iv of its mini wave 7.

FBMKLCI (1,746)

The pre-budget rebound is likely to be the mini wave 4.  KLCI is expected to move lower in the next few weeks to complete its mini wave v as well as its sub-wave i.

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.715)

Duta continues to form its sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

From its 30-minute interval 2-week chart, it quite clear that Duta at this stage is at the tail-end of its minor wave (iii) of its mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii.

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.375)

Hopefully Bpuri is forming the sub-wave ii that may take 3 or 4 days to complete. I hope my reading is correct.

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Operasi Lalang - 30th Anniversary

Operasi Lalang was a major crackdown carried out beginning 27 October 1987 by the police to prevent the occurrence of racial riots. 119 persons were detained without trial under the Internal Security Acts. These 119 persons were politicians, NGO activists, intellectuals, students and others.

The background issues were as usual the race and religion related issues that had a cumulative effects in raising ethnic tension.   The last straw that broke the camel's back was the Ministry of Education's decision to send some 100 non-Chinese educated senior assistants and supervisors to Chinese medium primary schools. Concerns were raised by the Chinese politicians and Chinese educationist and related organisations on the future policies and direction of these schools.

On 11 October 1987, a 2,000 strong gathering was held by the United School Committees Association of Malaysia at the Hainanese Association Building. It was joined by politicians from Chinese-based political parties of MCA, DAP and Gerakan.

This event had provoked the UMNO Youth into a mass rally of 10,000 at the TPCA stadium in Kampung Baru on 17 October 1987 led by A Jib Kor.

To make matters worst, a Malay soldier killed a Malay injured two other persons with an M16 riffle in the Chow Kit area on 18 October 1987.

While the then Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir were abroad, some UMNO leaders called for the holding of a mammoth rally in Kuala Lumpur on 1 November 1987.

On 27 October 1987 was launched to defuse racial tension that was said to have reached a dangerous level. 119 persons were arrested; 3 newspapers, the Star (English), Sin Chew (chinese) and Watan (Malay) were suspended; a nationwide ban on any gathering and rally was imposed.

Of the politician arrested, 3 were UMNO members, 8 MCA, 5 Gerakan, 15 PAS, 16 DAP and 2 PSRM. A mixture of Malay, Chinese and Indian.

In the last few days, several articles were written about Operation Lalang and some had demanded an official apology from Dr. Mahathir over this issue. But no one has looked into the picture of what would have happened to the country if Dr. Mahathir had not put in place the operation. Many of those that were arrested could have disappeared if there was a racial riot.

Sometimes I just wondered what would have happened on the day of 13 May 1969 if Tunku Abdul Rahman had a similar 'Operasi Lalang' well before that day.

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.38) - On new uptrend?

Bpuri has been moving in a downtrend direction for 7 years from its 2011 January high of Rm 1.54 to its August 2017 historical low of 33 sens. Its OBV indicates consistent accumulation during these 7 long years of downtrend. Accumulation turned stronger since early 2016.

Off and on I used to have a look at its chart to check for reversal pattern because Bpuri is considered by many as a fundamentally solid stock except that its earning is not that impressive. Its latest quarterly earning is only 0.07 sens a share but its assets backing is quite strong at 87 sens a share.

Since mid-August it has formed a bullish three overlapping waves that moved higher and higher within an uptrend channel.

My wave reading is wave (i) with a-b-c-d-e wave (ii). It moved up 2.5 sens today with strong volume. If it can break the upper trend line tomorrow with higher volume, it can continue to run higher for a while.

The business of Bpuri can be classified under five segments. Namely construction; property development; quarry and readymix concrete; polyol manufacturing and lastly power generation and supply.

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Dutaland (Rm 0.695) - Well behaved.

After resting for one day to complete its minor wave (ii), Duta moved up again to form its minor wave (iii) today. It closed at Rm 0.695 with volume of 15.5 million.

From the 30-minute interval chart, it is clear that Duta formed its wave b-c-d-e of minor wave (ii) yesterday. Today it formed the sub-wave i-ii and part of sub-wave iii. I expect it to complete its sub-wave iii and iv tomorrow.

From the daily 6-month chart, we can see that it is forming its sub-wave iii.

Next question is how high Duta can go. From the 10-year chart we can see that the mega wave (1) moved from 28 sens to 72 sens for a 157% gain. It then took 7 long years from July 2009 to December 2016 to complete its mega wave (2).

Mega wave (3) started in January 2017 from a low of 39.5 sens. If I used fibonacci ratio of 1.618, mega wave (3) will gain 254% to Rm 1.00.

Since mega wave (2) is a complex side way long duration wave, from the 'rule of alternation' mega wave (4) is expected to be a simple A-B-C wave with shorter duration but with bigger magnitude.

For mega wave (4) to have that bigger magnitude, mega wave wave (3) cannot end at Rm 1.00 which is only 28 sens above the mega wave (1). Very likely Duta will go higher than Rm 1.00.

The next fibonacci ratio is 2.618  that will give mega wave (3) a 411%  gain with a price of Rm1.64.

Hopefully from the subsequent wave development we can get some indication whether the mega wave (3) is going for fibonacci ratio of 2.618 or the next higher ratio of 3.618.

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