A bearish week for oil future.

Crude Oil WTI (US$48.49)

Crude oil (WTI) future dropped sharply by 8.7% in the last three trading days from US$53.14 to US$48.49

From the monthly chart, the 2017 March's candlestick until Friday is a long red body candlestick. Since this is the mini wave 4's candlestick, I don't expect it to have a long solid red body. I am expecting some rebound in the next two weeks. By end of March the candlestick is expected to have a small body with a long lower shadow like the one for mini wave 2.

The mini wave 5 is expected to end near US$60.00 to complete the wave (iv).

Dow (20,902)

Magnitude for mini wave 4 is almost there. Dow is expected to begin its mini wave 5 next week to complete its sub-wave iii. 

FBMKLCI (1,717)

If KLCI can move higher next Monday, then the sub-wave iii has nine waves as shown below.

If it moves lower on Monday and Tuesday, then it is a running a-b-c sub-wave iv. Sub-wave iii has ended, it has only five waves.

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm1.26)

Gadang's sub-wave vii is going to be a long one. Friday's surge is the minor wave iii of mini wave 3 of sub-wave vii. Friday's volume is impressive.

To classify Friday's surge as minor wave iii, I need the help of its 30-minute-interval chart. (Every 30 minutes one candlestick)

From the 30-minute-interval chart, it is very clear that Friday's up is minor wave iii. Next Monday Gadang is expected to move higher at the opening but should turn red by noon to complete its minor wave iv. Hopefully Gadang can close on positive territory on Monday to start its minor wave v.

Insas Bhd (Rm0.88)

Insas was very active on Friday with close to 10 millions shares changed hand. It gained 3.5 sens (+4%) to close at 88 sens.

The main question now is whether Insas has completed its wave (iii).

If Insas can continue to move higher with high volume next Monday, then it is forming the sub-wave iii of its wave (iii).

Based on its high volume on Friday, sub-wave iii of wave (iii) is a more likely scenario.

But if Insas were to move lower on Monday and continues the down-trend in the following days with shrinking volume, then it is forming a a-b-c wave (iv). Wave (iii) has ended.

This is a less likely scenario because wave b cannot have such a high volume. But based on my so many years of charting experience, sometimes the unlikely scenario can turn out to be the one. It may be rare but it can happen. Stock market is like that. Nothing can be 100% sure.

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谭晶 - 九儿

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Facb (Rm1.29) - Forming major wave 5

With Facb moving steadily to Rm 1.29, I guess I can rule out its second possibility that I have mentioned in my earlier posting.

It appeared to me that Facb's share price is moving along the path of the first possibility, forming its major wave 5.

Mini wave 3 of its wave (iii) is about to end. Mini wave 4 is likely to have a 4 to 6 sens pullback.

As I have mentioned previously, Facb has Rm 155 million of cash in hand, which is about Rm 1.82 of cash per share.

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赵雷 - 成都

       

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Classical Behaviour

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.23)

Gadang started to move higher again. At the close it added 6 sens (+5%) at Rm1.23.

Technically Gadang should continue to move higher. Hopefully it can open with a gap tomorrow, a run-away gap.

A typical bullish textbook case. An overlapping i-ii-iii-iv-v waves within a channel followed by a breakout and a subsequent pullback to rest on top of the upper resistance line before running away.

Gadang is forming its wave (v) that has 9 sub-waves. My target for wave (v) is Rm1.60.

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LBI Capital Bhd (Rm 1.21)

LBICap is a small property company with only 75 millions Rm 1.00 shares. Its only ongoing development project is in Section 14, Petaling Jaya comprising 11 units of bungalow lot. Nothing is interesting.

Its latest quarterly earning is only 0.01 sen a share. Net assets at Rm 1.71. With about Rm 5 million cash and Rm 26 million of borrow. Nothing is impressive.

But I find its chart technically quite interesting. LBICap has its peak in January 2014. Since then it has completed a 3-wave A, 3-wave B and by January 2017 it has completed another 3-wave down and started to rebound.

From its current level, I can see two possibilities.

The first possibility is as shown below, a 3-3-3-3-3 A-B-C-D-E consolidation. The current rebound is wave D that is likely to reach Rm1.50.

The second possibility is a 3-3-5 A-B-C formation.

The current rebound is wave 4 of C with likely target of Rm1.32. What is so interesting ?

The answer is its Warrant-A.

This warrant is going to expire on 17th April, 2018. Not much time left. Each warrant can be converted into 1 ordinary share at Rm 1.00 (Conversion price).

The interesting thing is that, at today's closing price of 18.5 sens for the warrant and Rm1.21 for LBICap, the warrant has a negative premium of 2.5 sens. For every one sen up for LBICap, I expect its warrant to move up one sen in tandem.

Even for the second possibility with wave 4's target of Rm1.32, 11 sens up for LBICap, a similar 11 sens up for the Warrant-A from 18.5 sens to 29.5 sens is 59% gain. This is interesting, right?

The next big question is, "will it move as what I have projected ?"

I hope it will, I pray that it will but I really don't know whether it will. In stock market, anything is possible. That is why the market can exist.
 
And to be frank, sometimes I too was caught on the wrong foot.

5th March 2017 is JINGZHE 驚蟄

Jingzhe 驚蟄, the third solar term, means the awakening of the hibernating insects. Jingzhe marks the starting of warmer weather accompanied by rain and thunder. In ancient China, the farmers would start to prepare the farmland to begin their year long agriculture activities. 

Whatever living things that are hibernating underground, if they do not wake up by the warmer weather, rain and thunder, they will ultimately be wakened up by farmer ploughing the field.

In Southern China especially the Guangdong Pear River delta region and Hong Kong, Jingzhe is the day to pacify the 'white tiger' 祭白虎  using a piece of raw pork and to beat the 'villians' 打小人 with a shoe.

After performing these rituals, there will be a year of smooth sailing, peace and good luck.