Li Chun (立春) 4th February

Based on the movement of the sun, for farming purposes, the ancient Chinese divided a year into 24 solar seasons (節氣).

Most people may not know all the 24 solar seasons but I am sure most of the Chinese know at least two of them, namely 'Ching Ming' (清明) on 4th April and 'Winter Solstice' (冬至) on 22nd December.

Another interesting solar season for the Chinese in Hong Kong is on 5th March,  'Awakening of Insects' (惊蛰).  

It is a day when one can carry out an ancient Chinese ritual of 'Da Siu Yan' (打小人) or 'beating the petty little people' with your shoe so that you will meet only good people for that year.  

Li Chun (立春) 4th February

According to some 'Feng Shui Sifu', Li Chun marks the starting of 2016 'Monkey' year. But for the traditional Chinese that follow the Lunar Calendar, 2016 'Monkey' year is from 8th February 2016 (年初一) to 27th January 2017. The 'Rooster' will takeover on 28th January 2017.

Based on Lunar Calendar, since this 2016 Monkey year will start on 8th February 2016, which is 4 days after 'Li Chun' and it will end on 27th January 2017, which is 5 days before the next 'Li Chun' that is on 4th February 2017, there is no 'Li Chun' for this Monkey year. A Lunar year without 'Li Chun' is called a 'Blind Year'. Some believed that 'Blind Year' is not auspicious for getting married.

For the next 'Rooster' year from 28th January 2017 to 16th February 2018, there will be two 'Li Chun', which is made possible because the 2017 'Rooster' year has 13 months. There will be two '6th month' in 2017. This 13 month a year pushes the Chinese New Year from January back to February again.

The ancient Chinese noticed that the Lunar year was shorter than the Solar year by 10 days a year, by having 13 months once every 3 year, the 24 solar seasons can be kept quite accurately for farming activities. 

The Muslim lunar calendar does not have this 'once every 3 years 13-month adjustment', their 'Hari Raya Puasa' will continue to move forward by 10 days every year. And one day in about 22 years time we will celebrate Chinese New Year and Hari Raya Puasa together again.

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Emico Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.325)

Out of the two possibilities that I mentioned on January 10, the major wave 4 correction turned out to be the right scenario.

It appeared to me that Emico has completed its major wave 4 and it is forming the major wave 5 of its mega wave (3).

Looking at the magnitude of mega wave (1) as shown in the 5-year and 20-year charts, very likely mega wave (3) is going to have 9 major waves.


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Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 33.76 a barrel)

Crude oil (WTI) is at the tail end of its major wave 3.

It is about to complete the sub-wave iii of wave (v) of its major wave 3.

Dow (16,466)

Dow surged 396 points (+2.47%) on Friday. Hopefully this is the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave i of wave (i) of its major wave (7).

I shall monitor Dow by assuming that it is currently forming its major wave (7) until such time that the mega wave 2 option that I have mentioned previously becomes more probable.

FBMKLCI (1,667)

In tandem with better crude oil price and stronger Ringgit, KLCI added 33 points (+2.04%) on Friday. If KLCI can continue to move higher, it is highly possible that wave (ii) has ended with a failure c and wave (iii) of major wave 5 has started.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.90)

Major wave 3 has ended and major wave 4 in progress. Hopefully it has completed its wave a of 4.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 3.23)

I have revised my wave count for Inari. Very likely it is half-way through its wave (iv).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.685)

Insas is about to complete the wave (ii) of its major wave 5.

Farms Best Bhd (Rm 0.80)


Farms Best has been moving up and down within a side-way channel in the last 7 years, forming a complex ABCDE-X-ABC corrective wave. Hopefully its September 2015's low of 47.5 sen marked the end of its mega wave (2). An OBV breakout is usually followed by a price breakout.

Very likely it is forming the sub-wave vii of its wave (i) of mega wave (2).

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.47)

Similar to Farms Best, Dutaland has also been moving side-way in the last 7 years forming a similar ABCDE-X-ABC complex corrective wave.

Hopefully mega wave (2) has ended and Dutaland is at the end of its sub-wave ii of wave (iii) of mega wave (3).

1MDB (US$ 4 Bil misappropriation)

Swiss attorney-general " .... suspected misappropriation amounted to about US$ 4 billion ...."

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Dow - Major wave (6) or Mega wave 2 ?

Dow (16,167)

If the correction in the last 8 months is the major wave (6), then there is a possibility that it has been completed , and major wave (7) has started. Under this scenario, Dow is expected to set more new record highs on its way to complete its major wave (7). And we will not see the 15,450 low that Dow has recorded on last Wednesday.

However, at this moment, it is difficult for me to rule out the second possibility that Dow is forming its mega wave 2.

If ultimately, it turns out that this is the case, then very soon Dow will have to break its last Wednesday low of 15,450.

FBMKLCI (1,626)

If Dow has completed its major wave (6) and is currently forming its major wave (7), to be in tandem with Dow, it is possible that KLCI has completed its wave (ii) with a failure wave c, and wave (iii) has started.

However, if Dow is forming its mega wave 2, then the current rebound for KLCI is only the mini wave 2 of c. It has yet to form its mini wave 3, 4 and 5 in order to complete the wave (ii).

Best Kept Secrete ? (Rm 2.6 billion)

After months and months of hammering, suddenly "I have returned Rm 2.03 billion in August 2013." Such a big sum of money moving in and out of the country and Bank Negara has been keeping quiet.



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Weekly Update

Dow (15,988)

Dow is either at the tail end of its wave C of (6)

Or it is at forming its sub-wave iii of (iii) wave A of major wave 2.

FBMKLCI (1,628)

KLCI is currently forming the wave c of its wave (ii).

 

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 1.00)

EG has finally ended its run and has started a higher degree correction. It has either completed its major wave 3.

Or this correction is the wave (i) and (ii) of its major wave 3.

 

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.72)

For Insas I still like to maintained my previous wave count that it is at its wave (ii) at this moment.

 
Currently it is at the wave c of (ii).

Farms Best Bhd.

It is forming the wave c of its wave (ii). The chart looked very bullish.

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2016 - Your luck in general

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First Week of 2016 - Disastrous

China introduced for the first time, starting on the first trading day of 2016, a 'circuit breaker' mechanism to curb stocks wild gyration to avert panic in the markets.

The circuit breaker is tied to the benchmark CS1300 index. A 5% swing in either direction will trigger a 30 minutes trade suspension. A further 5% move will freeze trading until the close.

A 7% swing will prompt a trading halt for the rest of the day.

On the very first day of its introduction, CS1300 index dropped 7%, Shanghai market was suspended in the afternoon. SSEC index dropped 6.86%.

On the forth day (Thursday) of trading Shanghai Market was suspended after 15 minutes of trading. SSEC dropped 7%. On that evening China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the suspension of its 'Circuit breaker' rule. SSEC rebounded by 1.97% on Friday.  

Shanghai SSEC Index (3,186)

Since its peak in 2007, SSEC has been consolidating until 2014 forming a big A-B-C corrective wave. Within the next 13 months, SSEC moved from 2,011 to 5,166 for a 157% gain, forming the major wave 1. Currently SSEC is forming the wave c of 2.

If wave c were to drop 40%, same as that of wave a, 2,180 could be the target, another 1,006 points or 31% to go.

Dow (16,346)

On the first trading week of 2016, Dow dropped 1,079 points or 6.19%. With this sharp drop, I need to have another look at Dow's long-term chart.

Since its bottom of 6,547 in March 2009, Dow has been forming its super wave VII. From 6,547 in March 2009 to 18,312 in May 2015, Dow might have gained 180%, but when compared to its super wave I (+372%), super wave III (+981%) and super wave V (+1,410%), I feel that the magnitude for super wave VII is rather small and I suspect the last high of 18,312 in May 2015 is not the end of super wave VII.

It remained possible that Dow is at the tail end of its major wave (6), mega wave 1 has 9 major waves.

Another more bearish  possibility is that mega wave 1 has only 5 major waves and it has ended in May 2015 at 18,312 level.

Dow is currently forming its mega wave 2 correction. It is at the sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of wave A of its mega wave 2, still a long way to go.

FBMKLCI (1,657)

If mega wave (5) has 5 major waves, KLCI is currently forming its major wave 5.

Unless major wave 5 is missing, then mega wave (5) has only 3 waves and it has been completed. Under this scenario, KLCI is at the starting of its super wave II correction. Personally, at this moment, I consider this scenario as unlikely but at the same time I can't say it is impossible. Anything is possible in stock.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 1.23)

Very likely EG is at the sub-wave iii of its wave (vii) of its major wave 3.

Emico Holdings Bhd (Rm 0.355)

If Emico can continue to move higher and break its previous high, then it is on its wave (vii).

However there is also this possibility that it is forming the wave b of its major wave 4 if its major wave 3 has only 5 waves.

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