Dow - Wave (iii) has ended

Dow (17,448)

Dow dropped 254 points (-1.44%) on Thursday . With this drop, the pullback becomes a higher degree correction. It becomes possible that its wave (iii) has ended.

So far the pullback has formed 5 little down waves i-ii-iii-iv-v, 5 waves formation usually indicates the starting of a new trend. Hopefully this is the wave a of (iv). The next rebound can be the wave b before end of November. The rate increase in US in December will provide the wave c of (iv).


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Dow, KLCI and FGV

Dow (17,743)

Two hours after the opening bell on Wednesday morning, Dow lost about 15 point. Dow has completed its sub-wave iii on last Friday with a failure mini wave 9. Very likely it has completed its sub-wave iv.

FBMKLCI (1,665)

KLCI dropped 20 points (-1.2%) on Wednesday. I am looking at two possibility for KLCI at this moment. It is either c of ii

Or it is a of iv.

Felda Global Ventures Holding Bhd (Rm1.86)

Very likely FGV is forming its sub-wave iv.

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Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$44.54 a barrel)

Wave 3 of d is about to start.

Dow (17,910)

Sub-wave iii is about to finish.

FBMKLCI (1,685)

At this moment, KLCI is either forming its mini wave 3 of ii, a very bullish scenario but not inline with the Dow.

Or in tandem with Dow, a not so bullish wave b of iv

Or its wave b of ii 

Asian Pac Holdings Bhd (Rm0.225)

Asiapac is on its major wave 3

I hope it is forming its mini wave 2 now and it should not last more than 2 days, otherwise, it is something else.

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm0.20)

Mui was very active on Friday with 18 million shares changed hand.

Is this the starting of the sub-wave iii of its major wave 3 ?

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Stocks with wave (1)-(2), 1-2 , (i)-(ii)

Felda Global Ventures Holding Bhd (Rm1.97)

Sub-wave iii in progress. If iii has the same magnitude as that of i the target is Rm2.14. But if its magnitude is 1.618 times of i then iii may reach Rm2.40.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.795)

EG is forming its major wave 3.

If EG continues to move side way to lower in the next few days, very likely it is forming its wave (iv).

But if it can move higher and can pull away from the 82 sens level tomorrow, then we will have sub-wave vii for EG.

RGB International Bhd (Rm0.195)

Major wave 3 in progress.

RGB is currently forming the mini wave 7 of its sub-wave v of wave (i).

Asian Pac Holdings Bhd (Rm0.225)

Asiapac continues to form its major wave 3.

Hopefully today's candlestick with high volume is the starting of its wave (iii) of major wave 3 of Mega wave (3).

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Felda Global Ventures - sub-wave iii ?

Is this the starting of sub-wave iii of (iii)?

Crude Oil WTI (US$47.70 a barrel)

Crude oil (WTI) is heading for US$50.00 to complete its wave d.

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Weekly update

Dow (17,663)

Dow continues with its major wave (6). So far it has completed its sub-wave i-ii and mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii. Still a long way to go, if I am right.

Crude Oil WTI (US$46.40 a barrel)

The rebound in the last 3 days is too big a magnitude to be considered as mini wave 4. If C has only 3 waves, the only possibility is a 3-3-3-3-3 sub-wave ii. Hopefully this ii can be completed before December.

Oil & Gas related stocks

These stocks are expected to move in tandem. 

FBMKLCI (1,665)

I am more inclined to read KLCI as an overlapping 1-2-3-4-5 sub-wave i. Sub-wave ii is in progress. There is a possibility that KLCI will move in tandem with the crude oil prices as Malaysia is heavily depended on revenues from oil & gas.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm0.785)

My original reading for EG is less bullish by assuming that it is currently forming the sub-wave v of wave (iii) with 82 sens as the target for v, even though sub-wave iv has only one day of correction whereas sub-wave ii has 5 days of correction.

EG has a strong candlestick with record volume on Friday with the characteristic of 3 of iii of (iii) especially in the morning session when it reached a high of 82 sens. But it also can be the climax for v of (iii) before the next wave (iv) correction.

However if it can continue to run next week and go higher than 82 sens with high volume, then the following wave count is more likely.

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm0.735)

LCTH is on course to complete its wave (v) of 3.

It is currently forming the mini wave 5 of iii with 78 sens as target.

Felda Global Ventures Hld Bhd (Rm1.78)

If Felda can continue with its last two days of up-trend with improved volume and go higher than Rm1.85 then it is forming its sub-wave iii currently. Volume has to be high as this is the iii of (iii).

If there is no volume and prices are fluctuating within narrow margin, then it can be wave (iv) in the making.

The worst that can happen is when it drops below its lower trend-line - run for your life. 

Really pity those Felda settlers that have taken the loan facilities provided to buy FGV at Rm4.45, the listing price.

Click 'Felda Settlers' for the report.

I guess, by next election in 2018, BN will need to do something if they want to win the votes of these Felda settlers.


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FBMKLCI - 3 possibilities

KLCI dropped 19 points today to close at 1666 level, another 8 points to go to reach the top of sub-wave i at 1658.

If this 1658 support level can hold, KLCI is either forming the mini wave 2 of sub-wave iii.

Or it is forming the wave a of sub-wave iv.

Another possibility is an overlapping 1-2-3-4-5 advancing wave to form the sub-wave i.

However, under this possibility of sub-wave ii correction, KLCI can start to rebound from its lower channel line at around 1658 level.

It also can go below 1658 level to the mini wave 4 level of 1600.

The worst that can happen is to have a 100% retracement to its starting point, which is the end of major wave 4 at 1532 level.


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