Can Marc Faber be right this time ?

US Market

For years, Marc Faber has been predicting the meltdown of US stocks, but only to see the markets climb higher.

In this CNBC interview a few hours ago Marc Faber was talking about the possibility of an up to 40% drop for US stocks.

Click 'Why US stocks could drop up to 40%' for the interview by CNBC

Marc Faber is not talking about my 12% major wave (6) correction where I assumed the mega wave 1 has more than 5 waves.

If it is up to 40% correction, it has to be the mega wave 2 correction, then the mega wave 1 has only 5 waves and it has ended when Dow has completed its ending diagonal triangle wave (xiii).

If mega wave 2 goes all way to the end of major wave (4), it will be a 42% pullback, I think this is what Marc Faber is talking about. At this moment he did not mention the possibility of a 100% retracement to 6,547 level, that will give a 64% correction.

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Dow - Has sub-wave ii of major wave (6) ended?

Dow dropped 181 points (-1%) to close at 17,919 on Tuesday. Has the sub-wave ii rebound ended? Is this red candlestick the starting of sub-wave iii going down south?

 

 

If this is the starting of sub-wave iii of major wave (6), Dow is going to come down quite fast in the next few days.


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Democracy in Action - It happens everywhere.

 



 

Greece PM, Alexis Tsipras, called for referendum on July 5, urging all Greeks to reject the bailout proposal from the creditors as the conditions imposed are humiliating. 61% of voters gave him their votes, a big 'No' to the bailout terms.

 

Shortly after obtaining the mandate, Tsipras made a deal with the creditors that would impose even stricter measure on Greece than what was voted on.

 

This is how 'democracy' works.

'I certainly don't want to be told that the government I live under represents me. What if I don't like any of the people running for office? what if I vote and the person I vote for doesn't win?'

'Or what if I vote for someone and then the person does something completely different than what he campaigned on?'

Greek people just had a referendum with crystal clear result, 'No', Yet Tsipras's government defied the collective will of the people.

It happens everywhere. You can find Tsipras everywhere, messing up the whole country and refused to disappear.


Click 'Should Greece Pay Its Debt' for the article, It is interesting.

 

 

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Weekend Update

Dow (18,086)

Sub-wave ii rebound is about there, Dow should start to move lower to form its sub-wave iii.

However, if Dow continues to move higher from here and set new record high, then I will have to abandon my present wave count and look for other new possible count.

 

FBMKLCI (1,726)

 

Has KLCI completed its wave (ii) correction ?  

 

 

 

If it has, then the current run-up is the wave (iii)

 

 

If it hasn't then the current run-up is only a wave b of (ii) rebound.

 

 

 

LCTH Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.63)

 

It is clear now that LCTH has completed its wave (i)-(ii), sub-wave i-ii and is currently forming its sub-wave iii.

 

 

 

It will continue to be dynamic with high volume as it is at its iii of (iii) of 3.

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't trust them

A good comment by Briton Ryle on Obama's historic deal with Iran that will free up to $150 billion of Iranian cash and 40 million of Iranian oil.

Click 'Iran Hostage' for the article.

 

 

 

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One by one

Lee Swee Kiat Group Bhd (Rm 0.29)

Yesterday LCTH gained 13.7%, today it was Leesk's turn, it gained 18.4% to close 4.5 sens up at 29 sens. Has its wave (iv) correction ended ?  Is this the starting of its wave (v) of major wave 3 ?

There are two possible wave counts due to the small little wave formed 3 to 5 days ago. If this little wave is part of wave (v), then I can get 7 down waves, which is equivalent to an a-b-c wave, then wave (iv) is completed and wave (v) has started and it is heading for 40 sens.

 

 

However, if that little wave is the failure mini wave v of 5, then there is only 5 down waves, then it has to be the wave a of (iv). Then the current rebound is the wave b of (iv). Then it is better to sell at 30 to 32 sens and buy back later say at 18 to 20 sens. So many 'then', only God knows which is which.

 



 

 

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.63)

 

The big question is whether major wave 4 has ended ? Is KSL the next one to move like LCTH and Leesk ?

 



 

 

Looking at its 6-month chart, based on the wave count shown below, there is one possibility that wave c of major wave 4 has just ended. Even the sub-wave v has 5 mini waves. The main assumption here is wave c has only 5 waves, wave (i) to (v) and wave (v) has only 5 sub-wave, sub-wave i to v and sub-wave v has only 5 mini waves, mini wave 1 to 5. Again, only God knows.

 



 

Amen

 

The one lesson to learn before a market crash

 

 

An interesting article by Jim Quinn, Click 'Before a Market Crash' for the article.

 

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LCTH Corporation Bhd

LCTH put on a strong candlestick with very high volume, gaining 7 sens (+13.7%) to close at 58 sens on Tuesday. Its profit is expected to increase due to weak Ringgit.

This surge has confirmed that LCTH has completed its major wave 2.

At this moment, it is either forming its sub-wave iii. In this case it will continue to move higher with high volume tomorrow.

However, if it started to consolidate tomorrow, then it is more likely that it has formed its sub-wave v and wave (i) and the next pullback can be the wave (ii).

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