Rare Earth Concentrate has Arrived !!!!

On 8th November, the Kuantan High Court has lifted the interim suspension of the Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) for Lynas, within 14 days, 102 containers of rare earth concentrate has arrived at Kuantan port at 11pm last night under heavy police escort. The 4000km journey from Australia to Kuantan is supposed to take a month, Lynas must be very confident of the court judgement to have its shipment started 16 days before the judge has lifted the suspension. Malaysia Boleh ! Lynas Boleh !!

The Government continued to claim that the everything is safe despite the fact that the Australian refused to have the plant in the Australian desert and take the trouble to send the concentrate 4000km at high cost and with high risk along the way to Malaysia for treatment. Malaysia really Boleh.

This is how big the Australian Continent 

Click 'Malaysians must know' for more information.

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Lynas to start production in December 2012

Lynas executive chairman Nicholas Curtis told the company’s annual general meeting in Sydney on Tuesday (20/11/2012) that its rare earth processing plant in Gebeng, Kuantan is expected to start production next month. The plant is expected to reach full capacity production by the second half of 2013.

 Toxic discharge from rare earth plant in China

The whole world needs rare earth but no government that care for the people will allow the import of rare earth ore into the country to be processed.

Baotou rare earth plant in China

China has 23% of the world rare earth reserve but is supplying more than 90% of refined rare earth on the global market. Why? It is because the waste produced is very toxic and is radioactive. Countries with rare earth reserves are reluctant to mine and to process rare earth despite of the high price and tight supply of rare earth products in the global market. To refine rare earth ore for another country is definitely a big 'NO' except Malaysia, a laughing stock to the world by now, but the Japanese (the main rare earth user) and the Australian really love the Malaysian Government.

Save Malaysia Stop Lynas (SMSL) Chairman Tan Bun Teet

Knowing very well it is a losing battle right from the beginning but these true Malaysian continue to block the project with all possible means despite of all the threats and harassment. These are the one that really care for you and me, our country, our future and our next generation, and next, and next .......

Himpunan Hijau Chairman Wong Tack

They deserve our respect of the highest level and we should give them our supports in anyway we can. 

The anti Lynas walk from Kuantan to Kuala Lumpur has reached its 8th-day. The participants are scheduled to reach Bukit Tinggi today.

They will be at Dataran Merdeka on 25th November and at the Parliament on 26th November.
Big anti Lynas crowd is expected to gather there. Want to join in ? See you there.



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Dutaland - One possible wave count

One possible wave count for Dutaland is as shown below

Wave (I)-(II), 1-2 formation. If the lower trend line is the support, 51 sen can be a possible ending point for wave 2, unless its is an expanding a-b-c formation.

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Dow - Possibility 1 can be eliminated

Dow dropped 185 points (1.45%) to close at 12570 level on Wednesday. With that, Dow has gone below its short-term lower resistance line (red line by joining point (ii) and (iv)). It confirmed that major wave (5) has only 5 waves. Thus, possibility 1 can be eliminated.

Next is possibility 2 where the mega wave 1 may have 9 major waves as shown below.

Major wave (6) may end around 12,000 level, staying on top of the longer term resistance line (green line by joining (2) and (4)).

This possibility 2 can only be eliminated if Dow drops below 12,000, by then we will left with only possibility 3 where mega wave 1 has ended and mega wave 2 has started.

The minimum target for mega wave 2 is the 10655 level, the low of major wave (4). The maximum pullback is the scenario of a 100% retracement to the starting point of mega wave 1, the 6547 level.

At this moment I am going to focus on possibility 2 and the 10655 support level until such time when Dow goes below the 10655 level and possibility 2 is eliminated.




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Dow - Only a 20% correction ?

Marc Faber is expecting a 20% correction.

“I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think markets are going down because of the fiscal cliff — because there won’t be a ‘fiscal cliff.’ The market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20%, in my view.”

Click 'Prepare for a painful market meltdown' for his interview with CNBC.

At this moment Marc Faber is calling for a 20% correction. If Dow does fall in tandem with S&P, it will drop to around 10,900 level. He didn't say what will be the direction of the market after that. Whether the 20% drop is the overall correction or whether the market will take a breather before the next 20% down.

I personally feel that Marc Faber is talking about the possibility No. 3 mentioned in my previous article.

Under this scenario, a most optimistic outcome for mega wave 2, the correction will end at 10655 level, the low of major wave (4), a strong support level. See the following chart.

It would be interesting to see what will be his assessment on the world economy after the 20% drop has taken place, and what will be his opinion on the direction of the S&P. 

To me, the 10655 level is very crucial. Once the Dow dropped below the 10655 level, I will monitor for a possible 100% retracement for mega wave 2 to reach the 6547 level until such time that it can be ruled out.



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Dow - Where are we ?

My belief - When Dow plunged, the whole world plunged.

My view - Dow should not be at its current level. It is being supported and put at its current level by the wealthy and powerful elites.

My hope - Technical analysis remains relevant.

My interpretations :

Possibility 1 : 
If major wave (5) has 9 waves, wave (i) to wave (ix) as shown below. Wave (vi) is almost completed. Dow is able to stay above the short-term lower resistance line. Next run-up is wave (vii).

Possibility 2 :
Dow drops below its short-term resistance line but is able to stay above its longer term lower resistance line as shown below. Mega wave 1 has 9 waves. Dow is forming its major wave (6). Next run-up is major wave (7).

 

Possibility 3 :

Dow drops below its longer term resistance line, around 11800 level - get ready to run. When Dow drops below the major wave (4)'s low of 10,655 as shown below - run for your life, Dow has completed its mega wave 1. Mega wave 2 can be very damaging with a possible low of 6547 for a 100% retracement.

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Dow - Needs further confirmation

Dow dropped 313 points (3.26%) on Wednesday to close below 13,000 level.

As I have mentioned before, the moment Dow dropped below the 13,000 level, probability is high that the major wave 1 as shown is completed. I will be looking for further confirmation for this wave count.

However, Dow has gone below the 13,000 level by a mere 68 points or 0.5% as shown. Quite often, prices tend to fall short or overshoot, as such the following wave count cannot be ruled out yet.

Especially if Dow can have a strong rebound in the next few days. Just have to wait for further confirmation.

News on Lynas Rare Earth Plant near Kuantan

The Kuantan High Court has lifted the suspension of the Lynas Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) today, paving the way for Lynas to start its operation when the public is not even aware of any proposal from Lynas on the toxic and radioactive waste disposal.

The only way to stop this project is to let the opposition win the State of Pahang in the coming General Election.
 

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