In the year 1955

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Have Commodity Prices Peaked ?

Followings are the monthly charts for some precious metals, crude oil, corn and soybeans, courtesy of traderslog.com


Silver after its closing peak on April 29 at $48.584/oz, it has dropped about 28% over 10 trading days to $35.011/oz. Based on wave count, there should be one more surge. it may go for a double tops formation. Not the end yet for silver.


Gold price has also retreated in the last 10 days but it dropped only 4%. I am expecting the 4% pullback to develop into a 16% pullback to around $1300/oz.

Copper price has started to go south in February and it has retreated from $4.64/lb peak to $3.98/lb so far for a 14% drop. The current pullback looked like a wave 4 correction, there should be one more surge.

The charts for crude oil and CRB looked rather similar to that of the Dow since 2008. If Dow is somewhere near the end of wave B, I would like to assume that crude oil and CRB are both at the tail end of wave B.


BDI chart says only one thing, the run up in commodity prices since the middle of 2010 were not due to actual increase in demand.


If Dow is going for double dips, corn and soybeans prices might not go much higher.

What others have to say about the trend for commodity prices?

UBS commodity analyst Tom Price said 2014 loomed as the ''tipping point'' for commodities, when new mining projects would come into operation. That means the prices of precious metals will continue to go higher until until 2014 or at least the prices will not collapse until 2014.

The Royal Bank of Scotland has predicted commodity prices will hit their peak in 2013. So, the commodity prices will continue to move higher until 2013.

Another factor that affects the commodity prices is the strength of US dollars, which I think is heading south at this moment. However if the Greek's debt structure collapsed or the Al-Qaida started their revenge or the political situation in Northern Africa and the Middle-East turned really ugly and out of control, the US dollars may reverse it direction.

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Beethoven - Moonlight Sonata

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Has the run ended ?

Dow, Nasdaq and S&P dropped by about 1% at the close of Wednesday session.



Looking at the Dow, the last surge is too short to be a mini wave v. Very likely Dow is in mini wave iv as shown above

Similar conclusion can be applied to Nasdaq as shown below.



There is another possible wave count for Nasdaq as shown below.


So, the last run-up is not over yet but it should not last very long, if I am right. Watch out for the major wave C, it may begin before end of May.


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Mini wave v of sub-wave 5 continues

Vietnam

Let's see whether mini wave v of sub-wave 5 will end at say 2910. The next pull back is either the starting of the major wave C (if it goes below 2616) or sub-wave 6 (if it can hold above 2700). Whatever is the outcome for Nasdaq, it will be the same for DJIA.

I prefer to look at Nasdaq chart because at this moment it provides a clearer wave form than Dow or S&P.

Another good article by Ir. Koon Yew Yin

click Malaysia's Brain Drain





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Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index

It appeared that Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index has completed the major wave B ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Its peak in January of 2932 is very likely to be the end of B.

Whereas DJIA as shown below has not shown any sign that the major wave B has ended. It has gained 95% since its 2009's bottom at 6547.





It is possible that the BM Industrial Index is already in its major wave C heading for 1750 as a likely end point, assuming the magnitude of C is the same as that of A. Major C is expected to have 5 waves. It is possible that currently the index is at its mini wave iii of its sub-wave (i) of C.

Funtime

My friend emailed the following fun game to me. Those good in mathematics should be able to figure out the reason.

Click : Magic-Gopher

The reason :

Any two digits number from 90 to 99 on subtracting its individual digits is equal to 81.
For example 90 - 9 - 0 = 81 ; 91 - 9 - 1 = 81; 92 - 9 - 2 = 81; can see the pattern now.

So if the number chosen is from 90 to 99 the result is always 81
Similarly the result for number from 80 to 89 is 72
For number from 70 to 79 is 63
For number from 60 to 69 is 54
and so on

So any two digits number that is chosen from 10 to 99 is expected to produce one of the following numbers only:
81, 72, 63, 54, 45, 36, 27, 18 and 9.

Just look at the following table, all the above numbers are having the same symbol, that is how it works. Every round the symbol for each number changes but the above numbers will always have a common symbol.



Numerical figures always behave faithfully in a predictable manner. That was the reason why the presence of black holes in the universe can be proved mathematically well before their physical discovery.



The following video from Youtube shows the beauty of mathematics




To all Mothers



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The Last Journey ?

After 55 minutes of trading on Friday morning, Dow put on 150 points (+1.2%) and Nasdaq put on 28 points (+1.0%). It looks like mini wave iv has ended and both the Dow and the Nasdaq have started the mini wave v. The next pullback before the end of next week is very crucial and the main question is whether the lower support line can hold. If it can hold, sub-wave 5 is going for 9 mini waves. If it can't, one possibility is that major wave B has ended. Of course there are also other possibilities.

Just Relax

A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out. The Genie says, 'I'll give each of you just one wish.'

'Me first! Me first!' says the admin clerk. 'I want to be in the Bahamas , driving a speedboat, without a care in the world.' Puff! She's gone.

'Me next! Me next!' says the sales rep. 'I want to be in Hawaii , relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.' Puff! He's gone.

'OK, you're up,' the Genie says to the manager. The manager says, 'I want those two back in the office after lunch.'

Moral of the story:

Always let your boss have the first say.

Oldies from Brian Hyland

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