Weekly Update

Dow (24,580)

For the week just ended, Dow was affected by the escalating tariff war between the US and China and it moved lower from Monday to Thursday with a technical rebound on Friday.

If Dow has ended its major wave 8 in May, it is possible that Dow is forming its wave (ii) at this moment.

But it is also possible that Dow is forming a complex major wave 8 of ABCDE-X-ABC at this moment in view of the tariff wars. That means major wave 9 has not yet started. Dow needs more time to complete its X-ABC.

FBMKLCI (1,692)

KLCI dropped in tandem with the Dow in the last 5 trading days and completed its sub-wave v in the process. The coming rebound can either be the wave (ii) as shown,

Or KLCI has just completed its wave (iv) and has another wave (v) to go before going for its major correction.

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Someone up there made it happen

Continues to drift 

Blur blur or continues to act

Most Malaysian can see clearly except a bunch of monkeys that see, hear and speak no evil.

An army sent by someone up there to do the job

A job well done

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What is going on in PKR?

While Dr. Mahathir and others are working overtime clearing all the shits left behind by the BN administration and everybody is trying their very best to put the house in order within the shortest possible time.

I guess the ex-UNMO members with their UMNO's DNA are too free and at the same time too busy thinking of their own interest.

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#?%$&$#@

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FBMKLCI (1,761) - Possible turning point

One possible reading for KLCI is that, it has completed a major turning point, the completion of its super wave I on April 19 at 1,895 level with a possible 'Double-Top' reversal pattern. We may witness a possible formation of 'Head and Shoulder' reversal pattern.

This is the most bearish scenario with a possible drop of 1,066 points (-56%).

If we are lucky, the current correction is only a wave (iv) pullback, we still have a wave (v) in front.

and of course, as I have mentioned before, if major wave 5 has nine waves, after completing the current wave (v), KLCI still need to complete its wave (vi), (vii), (viii) and (ix). That will give investors more time to liquidate and can get out at a higher index level but not necessary higher stock price level.

GE14 - Ayer Hitam Parliament Seat.

DAP's Liew Chin Tong has filed an election petition in the High Court in Johor Bahru to challenge the GE14 result for Ayer Hitam where he lost to MCA's Wee Ka Siong by 303 votes.

It would be interesting to have a by-election for Ayer Hitam to gauge the current feeling of the people towards the political development after the GE14.

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Still the same.

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What can we deduce from Telok Bahang GE14 result.

A few days ago, while going through a report that the Telok Bahang assemblyman, Zolkifly Md Lazim gave residents of a fishing village in his state constituency a taste of breaking fast together, out of curiosity I tried to find out from which party is Zolkifly from and the margin he won the seat in GE14.

Telok Bahang state constituency is located at the Northwestern corner of Pulau Pinang.

The 2018 Ethnic breakdown of Telok Bahang's electorate is as shown. Majority is Malay (65.94%)

This seat was first contested in 1974 and until GE14, it remained in the hand of BN for 10 consecutive election.

In 2008 GE12 and 2013 GE13 despite the political tsunami and with Pas in Pakatan Rakyat (PR), BN managed to win this seat in both the elections.

In 2013, BN's majority improved slightly from 2008 52.8% to 53.6%.

If I assumed that in GE12, GE13 and GE14, the number of votes given to Pas remained the same at around 12.2%, and if I removed 12.2% from PR's 46.4% in GE13, PR left with only 34.2%.

In GE14, PH won the seat by capturing 45.7% of the votes to BN 42.1% and Pas 12.2%. By assuming the Chinese votes given to the opposition remained about the same in GE12, GE13 and GE14, there was a swing of 11.5% of Malay votes from BN to PH in GE14 that caused the downfall of BN. The swing in Malay vote could be due to 1MDB fiasco and Dr. Mahathir's effect.

Similar to situation in Telok Bahang, I guess it was this 11% swing in the Malay votes that caused BN to loose the GE14.

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