Thursday, May 3, 2018
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
Crude Oil (WTI) US$67.40
In the last few months crude oil prices continued to move higher with no sign of coming down. This is not inline with the wave count that I had proposed a few months back.
In my previous reading, after closing at a high of 54.38 in October 2017, I was expecting the price to come down in November to form the sub-wave iii of its wave (v) of C.
Is it possible that the wave (iv) of C has yet to be completed?
Theoretically as long as the wave (iv) does go higher than the low of wave (i), the current run-up can still be wave (iv). But then the magnitude of wave (iv) is so much bigger than that of wave (ii). In fact it is as big as the wave B. This is an unlikely scenario.
The next possibility is a A-B-C-D-E complex wave.
If it is indeed going for a complex A-B-C-D-E, the wave (iii) of D is likely to reach US$85.00 before the oil prices start to drop again with a possible low of below US$30.00.
The next decline could be due to the trend of banning of petrol and diesel vehicles over times.
From Wikipedia, I found the following table.
By 2024 there will be no more diesel vehicles in Rome.
By 2025, no more diesel vehicles in France (Paris), Norway, Spain (Madrid), Greece (Athens) and Mexico (Mexico City).
This is going to be the trend in future. Petrol kiosks will slowly disappear from all major cities.
May be this is the reason why Royal Dutch Shell has started its assets selling when they can still fetch a high price.
(In Bursa Malaysia, Shell has become Hengyuan and Esso has become Petron).
In September 2017 when China announced plans to eventually ban the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels, the share price of Geely, that bought 49.99% of Proton, went up by 40% during period before and after the announcement.
Another company BAIC is planning to list its electric vehicle business unit on Shanghai Stock Exchange at a valuation of RMB28.8 billion (US$4.5 billion).
It is possible that after the current up trend. crude oil price is going to move lower and lower in the coming years.
.
In my previous reading, after closing at a high of 54.38 in October 2017, I was expecting the price to come down in November to form the sub-wave iii of its wave (v) of C.
Is it possible that the wave (iv) of C has yet to be completed?
Theoretically as long as the wave (iv) does go higher than the low of wave (i), the current run-up can still be wave (iv). But then the magnitude of wave (iv) is so much bigger than that of wave (ii). In fact it is as big as the wave B. This is an unlikely scenario.
The next possibility is a A-B-C-D-E complex wave.
If it is indeed going for a complex A-B-C-D-E, the wave (iii) of D is likely to reach US$85.00 before the oil prices start to drop again with a possible low of below US$30.00.
The next decline could be due to the trend of banning of petrol and diesel vehicles over times.
From Wikipedia, I found the following table.
By 2024 there will be no more diesel vehicles in Rome.
By 2025, no more diesel vehicles in France (Paris), Norway, Spain (Madrid), Greece (Athens) and Mexico (Mexico City).
This is going to be the trend in future. Petrol kiosks will slowly disappear from all major cities.
May be this is the reason why Royal Dutch Shell has started its assets selling when they can still fetch a high price.
(In Bursa Malaysia, Shell has become Hengyuan and Esso has become Petron).
In September 2017 when China announced plans to eventually ban the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels, the share price of Geely, that bought 49.99% of Proton, went up by 40% during period before and after the announcement.
Another company BAIC is planning to list its electric vehicle business unit on Shanghai Stock Exchange at a valuation of RMB28.8 billion (US$4.5 billion).
It is possible that after the current up trend. crude oil price is going to move lower and lower in the coming years.
.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Dow (24,024)
Dow dropped sharply on Tuesday with an intraday low of 23,829 (-619 points) as the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield broke the 3% level for the first time in four years.
The major wave 8 has slowly evolved into a 3-3-3-3-3 A-B-C-D-E corrective wave instead of a simple 3-3-5 A-B-C pattern.
Dow started to climb up from its low of 6,547 level in March 2009, that was 9 years ago, to its current level of above 24,000 for a gain of more than 260% after the Federal Reserve started its monetary policy of 'Quantitative Easing (QE)' nickname 'Printing Money' policy in December 2008.
Looking at the chart, from its low of around US$800 billion in 2008 to its height of US$4.5 trillion in 2014, a total of US$3.7 trillion had been printed and injected into the market. It was this excessive liquidity coupled with low interest rate plus the subsequent improvement in economy that fuelled the current run in the Dow since 2009.
The next run-up will be the major wave 9. If the mega wave (VII) has only nine waves, the next mega wave (VIII) correction could be in the region of 40% to 50%.
Be very careful during the major wave 9's run.
.
The major wave 8 has slowly evolved into a 3-3-3-3-3 A-B-C-D-E corrective wave instead of a simple 3-3-5 A-B-C pattern.
Dow started to climb up from its low of 6,547 level in March 2009, that was 9 years ago, to its current level of above 24,000 for a gain of more than 260% after the Federal Reserve started its monetary policy of 'Quantitative Easing (QE)' nickname 'Printing Money' policy in December 2008.
Looking at the chart, from its low of around US$800 billion in 2008 to its height of US$4.5 trillion in 2014, a total of US$3.7 trillion had been printed and injected into the market. It was this excessive liquidity coupled with low interest rate plus the subsequent improvement in economy that fuelled the current run in the Dow since 2009.
The next run-up will be the major wave 9. If the mega wave (VII) has only nine waves, the next mega wave (VIII) correction could be in the region of 40% to 50%.
Be very careful during the major wave 9's run.
.
Saturday, April 14, 2018
Dow - going south to complete its wave C?
Dow (24,360)
Despite some rebounds in the last few trading days, my wave count for Dow remained the same unless Dow can continue to move higher next week, then I would have no choice but to revise my current wave count.
FBMKLCI (1,868)
KLCI rebounded for 4 trading days in a row, gaining 36 points, following the dissolution of parliament on 7th April. It has a small 5 points pullback on Friday. If KLCI were to go down all the way from its current level, the rebound in the last few days could be the right shoulder of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern. A drop below the neckline at around 1,820 will confirm the wave C (-15%) pullback.
With G14 election around the corner, KLCI could be quite volatile.
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Despite some rebounds in the last few trading days, my wave count for Dow remained the same unless Dow can continue to move higher next week, then I would have no choice but to revise my current wave count.
FBMKLCI (1,868)
KLCI rebounded for 4 trading days in a row, gaining 36 points, following the dissolution of parliament on 7th April. It has a small 5 points pullback on Friday. If KLCI were to go down all the way from its current level, the rebound in the last few days could be the right shoulder of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern. A drop below the neckline at around 1,820 will confirm the wave C (-15%) pullback.
With G14 election around the corner, KLCI could be quite volatile.
.
Friday, April 13, 2018
Saturday, April 7, 2018
Dow - Is it at the tail end of its major wave 8?
Dow (23,932)
Dow has completed its wave iv of C and has started its wave v of C on Friday with a 572 points (-2.34%) drop after Trump said on Thursday that the US would consider an additional $100 billion tariffs in Chinese goods.
If my projection of 22,600 level is the end of the wave C of its major wave 8, Dow has another 1,300 points to drop.
FBMKLCI (1,837)
Refer to my previous wave counts for KLCI, with the sharp drop on Wednesday, I am left with the possibility of a mega wave (6) correction of about 15%
Or a very bearish super wave (II) correction of at least 45% down.
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Dow has completed its wave iv of C and has started its wave v of C on Friday with a 572 points (-2.34%) drop after Trump said on Thursday that the US would consider an additional $100 billion tariffs in Chinese goods.
If my projection of 22,600 level is the end of the wave C of its major wave 8, Dow has another 1,300 points to drop.
FBMKLCI (1,837)
Refer to my previous wave counts for KLCI, with the sharp drop on Wednesday, I am left with the possibility of a mega wave (6) correction of about 15%
Or a very bearish super wave (II) correction of at least 45% down.
.
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