Dow - Be careful

Dow (20,606)

Dow dropped sharply on Wednesday. It dropped 372 points (-1.78%) at the close of the trading session.

I have mentioned in my May 14's article that I cannot rule out the possibility that Dow might have completed its wave (v) with a failure sub-wave v. With this 372 points drop, this possibility is only 200 points away. Once the Dow punched through the 20400 level, my reading is - it will drop another 2,400 points to 18,000 level.

And of course if it can hold above the 20400 level, it is still possible that this sharp drop is the mini wave 2 of its sub-wave v.

Keep your fingers crossed.

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Ron 95 - Fill up your fuel tank by Wednesday

Petrol prices are expected to go up in the coming Wednesday's announcement. Looking at the crude oil chart (WTI), the previous week candlestick has shown that the crude oil price (WTI) has gone up from US$46.22 a barrel to US$47.84 a barrel.

Very likely the government is going to announce higher petrol prices.

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Going South ?

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 47.88)

At this moment there is this possibility that crude oil price has completed its wave (iv) of C and has started its wave (v) of C.

No panic selling yet, has to wait until it punches through the US$ 39.19 level and the market turns bearish.

Dow (20,896)

As I have mentioned previously, it is possible that Dow is forming its mini wave 2 at this moment and there are mini wave 3, 4 and 5 in front.

But I cannot rule out the possibility that Dow might have completed its wave (v) with a failure sub-wave v.

Be careful, be very careful of the possible 15% major wave 8 correction.

FBMKLCI (1,775)

If Dow can proceed to form its mini wave 3, 4 and 5, I expect KLCI to move in tandem with Dow in forming its own mini wave 3, 4 and 5.

However, if Dow has already completed its major wave 7 with a failure sub-wave v, it is possible that KLCI has also completed its wave (iii) of B and has started to form the wave C of its major wave (6).

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Ron95 - Price to drop further

In the previous two weeks, Ron95 dropped from its high of Rm 2.27 a litre to Rm 2.21 and to Rm 2.11 in last Wednesday's announcement.

Looking at the previous week's weekly candlestick, crude oil price dropped from US$49.33 a barrel to US$46.22. In the coming Wednesday's announcement, petrol prices are expected to go lower.

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Crude Oil - Heading for US$25 a barrel

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 46.51)

Very likely crude oil has completed its wave (iv) of C. Wave (v) is likely to end at US$ 25.00 or below. It is going to hurt oil producing countries badly. Malaysia is one of them.

Dow (21,006)

If well behaved, Dow will proceed to form its mini wave 3, 4 and 5, unless it has a failure sub-wave v with mini wave 5 missing, highly possible for the terminal mini wave.

FBMKLCI (1,762)

In tandem with Dow, KLCI is likely to proceed with its mini wave 3, 4 and 5 with possibility of a failure sub-wave v.

Wave C of its mega wave (6) is likely to end around 1,530.

It is about time to slowly get out of the market.


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耿晓磊《花房姑娘》

姜兴琦《斑马斑马》