EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.975)

EG put up a strong performance today. It gained 7 sens (+7.7%) with high volume to close at 97.5 sens. The magnitude of mini wave 3 at this moment is about equal to the magnitude of mini wave 1. This is a possible turning point to form mini wave 4.

But if the uptrend can continue into next few days, then mini wave 3 can either equal to 1.618 times or 2.618 times the magnitude of mini wave 1. Under this scenario, mini wave 3 can either end at Rm 1.02 or higher at Rm 1.12.

If I take the percentage gain of the current major wave 5 to be the same as the percentage gain of the major wave 1, i.e. +62%, the target for major wave 5 is around Rm 1.33, another 36% to go.

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Weekly Update

Dow (20,269)

With last Friday's 96 points gain, Dow managed to move above its short-term upper resistance. If Dow can continue to move higher next week, it is forming the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii of its wave (v) of its major wave (7).

However, if Dow starts to move lower in the next few sessions, then nothing has changed despite last two session's 215 points gain. Dow remains in its wave (vi) formation, an expanding a-b-c.

FBMKLCI (1,698)

KLCI formed a small gap last Friday. Is this an exhaust gap? If it is indeed an exhaust gap, then KLCI has completed its mini wave 3 and will move into a one week or longer correction to form its mini wave 4.

But, if KLCI can punch through its upper trendline, then it is the last surge of its sub-wave i before a more than 2 weeks sub-wave ii correction.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.395)

BJCorp is likely to have completed its sub-wave i, if this sub-wave i has only 5 waves.

But if BJCorp can continue to move higher than 41 sens next week, it means sub-wave i has 9 waves. The current correction is the mini wave 6.

If BJCorp is forming its mega wave (3), it still has a long long way to go in its current up-cycle. There is this possibility that I may be wrong but I feel that this is a potential goldmine.

Paragon Union Bhd (Rm 0.555)

Paragon surged to as high as 59 sens on Friday morning before profit taking brought it down to 55.5 sens at the close.

The current up is the sub-wave v of its wave (iii) of major wave 3.

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Insas, Supercomnet and Perak Corporation

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.86)

With the completion of the 1 for 1 bonus issue by Inari by end of January 2017, the number of Inari share held by Insas is 402 million (20.7%). If I divide 402 million by the number of Insas share of 663 million, I get 0.6. That means for every Insas share there is 0.6 Inari share. At today's closing price of Rm 1.83 for Inari, the 0.6 share of Inari per Insas share alone is worth Rm 1.09.

Buying Insas at Rm 0.86, you get 0.6 share of Inari worth Rm 1.09 plus Insas's other assets and business. Very Cheap.

Insas last quarter (July-Sept) pre-tax profit is Rm 61.7 million, which includes a one-off gain of Rm 24.6 million from the disposal of some Inari shares. Earning per share for the quarter is 8.84 sens. NTA is Rm 2.13 a share.

Currently Insas is forming the major wave 3 of its mega wave (5). If I assumed the magnitude of major wave 3 is 1.618 times (fibonacci ratio) the magnitude of major wave 1, major wave 3 is likely to end at Rm 1.06. If it is 2.618 times, I get Rm 1.32 for its major wave 3 of (5). Don't get carried away.

Supercomnet Technologies Bhd (Rm 0.14)

Supercomnet is a Taiwanese Company in Sg. Petani, Kedah, that manufactures wires and cables for electrical and electronic devices for automotive industries and for medical equipment.

It is one of the very few penny stocks that reported positive earning for every single quarter in the last two years. Its P/E is about 10. Its last 3 quarterly earnings were 0.1 sen, 0.4 sen and 0.38 sen a share respectively. Its NTA is 17 sens.

Its share price has been moving sideway since 2007 forming a major A-B-C-D-E wave (2). It is possible that the current up-trend is the wave D of (2). The guess now is whether the wave D can reach the upper trend line at around 38 sens (+171%).

Please take note of the OBV breakout, which is a bullish sign.

Perak Corporation Bhd (Rm 1.94)

PRKCorp's chart looked interesting with double-bottom formation with its current price testing the neckline support. Strong OBV that is about to breakout.

The core businesses of PRKCorp  are property development; port and logistic segment of maritime services; and hospitality and tourism(hotel operation). Perak government (PKNP) is the major share holder with 52.27%.

Its last quarter earning is 10.68 sens a share with NTA at Rm 4.26. Very solid.


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Ron 95

Tan Zee Kin has an article on how to compute the price for Ron 95. Click 'Ron 95 - Calculate the price yourself' for the article.

He summarized the computation by the following table.

The monthly price for Ron 95 is depended on one key element -Means of Platts (Singapore).

MOPS (short form for Means of Platts Singapore) is the average of a set of Singapore based oil product price assessments published by Platts.

Platts is a global energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture information provider and it is a division of McGraw Hill Financial, Inc.

From the website of CME Group Inc. we can get the monthly chart for 'Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded (Platts) Future Quotes' as shown below. Click 'CME Group' for the website.

From what our minister had said, our current month petrol price calculation is based on the average of the previous month international petroleum price. That means our February Ron 95 price of Rm 2.30 a litre is based on January Data.

I have superimposed our monthly Ron 95 prices from September 2015 to February 2016 on the CME Group's monthly chart as shown below.

The price movements correlate very well except that few months before and after the Sg. Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections on June 18. There were price manipulations.

To date the February MOPS prices were higher than the January prices. If the current MOPS price doesn't drop for the rest of February. Our Ron95 price for March is expected to be higher than the February price of Rm 2.30. 😭😭😭😭😭.

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Paragon Union - Impressive earning.

Dow (20,071)

If Dow continues to move side way and lower in the next  one to two months, it is forming its wave (vi).

However, following last Friday gain if Dow can continue to move higher, then the December high is not wave (v). It is more likely to be the sub wave i of wave (v). At the moment Dow is forming the mini wave 3 of iii of (v).

FBMKLCI (1,685)

KLCI continues with its wave (iii) formation.

Still a long way to go for KLCI to complete its major wave 5.

Paragon Union Bhd (Rm 0.46)

Paragon is a company with only 65 million shares. Its principal business is the manufacturing and sale of carpet for automobile and commercial sectors.

Its quarterly earning per share for the first 9 months are 2.80 sens, 2.33 sens and 2.78 sens. If it can earn another 2.50 sens for its 4th quarter, its annual earning can reach 10.41 sens a share. With NTA at 66 sens, Paragon at 46 sens a share is considered cheap.

My chart reading for Paragon is as shown above. At this moment, Paragon is forming the sub-wave v of its wave (iii) of major wave 3.


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3rd February 2017 Li Chun (立春)

Li Chun can be dated back until the 'Spring Autumn Period' 春秋时期 (770 BC - 476 BC) when the spring and autumn solar terms were created to guide agriculture activities.

On the day of Li Chun, the King would lead all his officers to the outskirt on the eastern side (东郊) on early morning to pray to the god in charged of crops and plant-growth for good weather and good harvest for the coming year.

It was during the 'Warring States Period' 战国时期 (475 BC - 221 BC) the ancient astrologer created a total of 8 solar terms for more precise classification of seasonal change of weather condition.

During the Qin Dynasty 秦朝 (221BC - 206BC), the first imperial dynasty of China, Li Chun was officially declared as the first day of a new year by the First Emperor of ancient China, Qin Shi Huang 秦始皇.

Since then for more than 2000 years, Li Chun was designated as the first day of Chinese New Year 春节 celebration until 1913, when Yuan Shikai 袁世凱 was elected as the First President of the Republic of China. The Republic government fixed the first day of the first lunar calendar 正月初一 as the first day of Chinese New Year 春节 celebration. This practice has been followed by the Chinese all over the world until today. Li Chun remains as the starting of the 24 solar terms.

The confusion now is, say for this year the rooster year, in general the Chinese will take the period for the rooster year is from the first day of the lunar calendar 正月初一 (28th January 2017) until the last day of the lunar calendar (15th February 2018). Any baby that is born within this period is considered as a 'rooster' baby.

But according to Fengshui Master the rooster year is from today, Li Chun (3rd February 2017) until one day before the next Li Chun (4th February 2018). The 'Bazi' calculation by the Fengshui Master is based on Li Chun as the starting date for rooster year.

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24 Solar Terms (二十四节气)

The 24 solar terms were created by astrologer in ancient China based on the sun's position in the zodiac to guide the seasonal agriculture activities. During the Warring State period 戰國時代 (475BC to 221BC) only 8 main solar terms were created to mark the four seasons.

By the time of Western Han Dynasty 西汉 (206BC - 24AD), it was further improved by the creation of another 16 sub-solar terms to reflect more accurately the seasonal changes in climate and weather. Total solar terms became 24.

Since the timing of the 24 solar terms were based on the sun's movement, the date for the starting of each solar term can be quite accurately stated by solar calendar or Gregorian calendar with variation of 1 day.

But the dates of the 24 solar terms in a lunar calendar can vary by up to 30 days.

Lunar Calendar

A lunar calendar is based on cycles of the lunar phases as the moon orbits around the earth.

The absolute period taken by the moon to complete one orbit is 27.32 days. But, while the moon is orbiting the earth, the earth-moon system is orbiting the sun at the same time.

For an observer on earth, the period taken by the moon to return to the same apparent position with respect to the sun is 29.53 days. Thus each month of the lunar calendar has either 29 days or 30 days. A lunar year with 12 months has only 354 days, that is 11 days shorter than a solar year of 365 days. To adjust this difference of 11 days a year, ancient Chinese added one extra month to every third lunar year. This 2017 rooster year is the third lunar year, so it has 13 months. The extra month is on the 6th month. There will be two 6th month in 2017 lunar calendar.

Li Chun (立春)

Li Chun is the first solar term and the starting of Li Chun marks the starting of spring. In ancient China, the emperor would conduct an elaborate ceremony on Li Chun to declare and to celebrate the starting of a new year.

The 2016 'Monkey' year was from 8th February 2016 (after the 4th February 2016 Li Chun) to 27th January 2017 (before the 3rd February 2017 Li Chun), thus there was no LI Chun throughout the whole 'Monkey' year. The year was termed a 'Blind Year' (盲年), a year without Li Chun.

Came this 2017 Chinese New Year on 28th January 2017 with its first Li Chun on 3rd February 2017. Because this lunar year has 13 months, it will end on 15th February 2018 after the 2nd Li Chun on 4th February. With 2 Li Chuns within a year, this Rooster year is termed 'Shuang Chun Nian' (双春年). A year that is good for marriage.

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