Dow - wave (xiv)

Dow (17,416)

Dow gained 225 points (+1.3%) on Thursday. Hopefully it has completed its wave c of (xiv).

FBMKLCI (1,782)

If KLCI continues with its sub-wave iii of wave (i) formation. I expect this major wave 5 to last until early 2017 if the asset bubble and Dow can hold on for another 2 years.

Nouriel Roubini

"The asset 'frothiness' should continue for a couple of years, then the bubble will grow, pop and there is going to be a crash "

"The equity markets are 'stretched' and they are going to become more stretched."

Click 'Mother of all asset bubbles' for the report.


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KSL - At crucial level.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.15)

KSL moved to its upper resistance line with high volume and stopped there. Is it going to punch through and move higher to form the sub-wave iii of wave (v) of its major wave 3 ?

Or it is going to drop to Rm 1.60 to complete its wave e of major wave 4 ?

Its movement tomorrow is crucial.

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Dow - Investors worrying about slowing down in economic growth

Dow (17,387)

Dow dropped sharply on Tuesday following a surprise drop in durable-goods orders and disappointing earnings from Microsoft and Caterpillar. Investors feared that economic growth is slowing down.

Despite the 291 points (-1.65%) drop, my reading for Dow remains the same. Dow is forming the wave d of its wave (xiv).

But if Dow continues to drop further from here in the next few days, it is still possible that it is forming its wave (xiv) in another form.


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Weekend review

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 45.59 a barrel) 

If the magnitude of wave 3 is 1.618 times of the magnitude of wave 1, it is likely that wave 3's low is around US$ 43. If wave 4 is going to take more than two years with prices moving side way between US$ 43 and US$ 75 a barrel, it should benefit the world economy.

Dow (17,672)

It is more likely that Dow is forming an uptrend contracting a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv) that could last until mid February.

With ECB printing EUR 60 billion a month until September 2016 and if crude oil prices can move side way for the next 2 years, Dow may be able to continue its uptrend until early 2017.

FBMKLCI (1,803)

KLCI managed to close above 1,800 level on Friday. I hope this is the sub-wave iii of wave (i) of its major wave 5.

If this major wave 5 can last for 25 months, same duration as that of major wave 1, the uptrend might last until January 2017.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.08)

If the asset bubble won't burst for the next 2 years, property price may be able to hold or move higher in the next 2 years, this should be good for property stock like KSL.

If KSL can break its upper trend-line next week, then its last low at Rm 1.70 could be its wave (iv).

Then its current run-up is likely to be the wave (v) of its major wave 3.

However, if it is unable to break its upper trend-line and moves lower instead of higher, then it is more likely to form a higher degree a-b-c-d-e major wave 4.

This is less bullish but the major wave 5 of mega wave (3) may see KSL reaching Rm 3.00

Karambunai Corp Bhd (Rm 0.07)

KBunai closed at 7 sen on Friday. It is about to complete the wave v of C of its mega wave (2) that has dragged for 7 years. Its OBV indicates strong accumulation since 2006.

Based on its minor wave count, Friday's 7 sens could be its mini wave 4. It might go to its 2006's low of 5.5 sens again to complete the mini wave 5 and also to complete its major 'double-bottom' reversal pattern.

The owner, Dr. Chen Lip Keong has a direct interest in 4.29 billion share (74.27%) and an indirect interest in 339 million share (5.87%) in KBunai, totaled 80.14%.

In October 2013, Dr. Chen received 2.9 billion shares valued at 11 sens to settle his personal loan of Rm 322 million to KBunai. At 7 sens he has already lost Rm 116 million on paper. Even if I buy at 7 sens I am paying 4 sens (36%) less than Dr. Chen.

This could be another potential goldmine besides PWorth if KLCI can move to 2,400 by January 2017.

I am praying very hard to whoever up there that the mini wave 5 will come and I can get KBunai at 5.5 sens, Amen.


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ECB announced latest QE

Stocks jumped after European Central Bank announced a bond buying program this morning to the tune of EUR 60 billion a month until September 2016 for a total of about EUR 1.2 trillion.

With this latest QE from ECB and if oil price can maintain around US$50-60 a barrel for the next two years, Roubini's words that "we're in an asset bubble and it won't pop until 2016" can be true. He predicts an eventual crash, but not for at least a few years.

Dow (17,813)

Dow gained 259 points (+1.5%) after the ECB's announcement. It appeared to me that Dow is going for a contracting a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv).

FBMKLCI (1,781)

KLCI added 11 points to 1,781. Sub-wave iii continues.

KLCI is forming the sub-wave iii of wave (i) of its major wave 5 of mega wave (5).

Major wave 1 and 3 lasted 25 and 28 months respectively. If this major wave 5 can last say 25 months, it is possible that KLCI will be trending upwards for the next 25 months until January 2017 to around 2,400 level.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.00)

So, how high can KSL go if the asset bubble can last for another 2 years ?

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FBMKLCI - Wave 5 in the making ?

FBMKLCI (1,770)

KLCI gained 20 points (+1.1%) on Wednesday. The last minute push-up of component stocks has contributed to most of the gain, but when looking at the chart, this is part of the human factors that contribute to the final form of a chart.

It is very likely that major wave 5 is in the making.

Blue chips may take the lead at the beginning of the major wave 5, I hope second and third liners will follow soon.



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KSL - Wave (v) or major wave 4

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.98)

It is possible that KSL is forming its wave (v) if my original wave count is correct. Then the next up will be the sub-wave iii of wave (v) of major wave 3.

But if it moves lower instead of higher in the next few days, then it is forming the wave e of its major wave 4. It may go to Rm 1.70 again or even lower to Rm 1.60.

This is less bullish but there is still a major wave 5 to go that may bring KSL to RM 3.00.


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