Dow - I am still thinking of wave (xiv)

Dow (17,320)

a) Simple a-b-c wave (xiv)

b) Contracting a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv)

c) Expanding a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv)

I hope Dow is forming its wave (xiv) and not major wave (5) or mega wave 2.

FBMKLCI (1,745)

If Dow can last for another 2 years, KLCI will have enough time to complete its major wave 5.

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Crude Oil - At the tail end of wave 3 ?

Crude Oil WTI (USD 45.39)

Crude oil (WTI) closed lower at US$ 45.39 on Monday. After completing its wave B in April 2011 at US$ 114.83 level, it took 3 years and 2 months to complete its wave 1 and 2 of C.

It started its wave 3 in July 2014. Within 7 months, it has dropped 58%.

If wave 3's magnitude is 1.618 times of wave 1's magnitude, very likely wave 3 will find its bottom at US$ 43.00 level, only another US$ 2.39 to go and that can be reached within a day.

Let's see whether the US$ 43.00 level can hold.


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Dow, FBMKLCI and KSL

Dow (17,737)

Dow is either forming the wave d of its a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv).

Or it is forming sub-wave iii of its wave (xiii) if Dow can break its upper resistance line.

FBMKLCI (1,732)

It is possible that KLCI is forming the sub-wave ii of its wave (i) of major wave 5.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.00)

It is very likely that KSL is forming the wave (v) of its major wave 3.

Hopefully it can break its September high of Rm 2.44 (adjusted for 1:1 bonus) and reach Rm 3.00 by end of February when KSL announces its 4th quarter result.

What are the things to worry

1MDB's Rm 42 billion debts. The company failed to settle its Rm 2 billion loan repayment by 31st December, 2014. Click '1MDB' for more.

Sliding oil prices and the weakening Ringgit that may trigger a full scale Ringgit sell-off by the foreign funds, especially the hedge funds. Don't forget Mr. George Soros.


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Dow - Gained 536 points (+3%) in two days.

Dow (17,907)

Seeing a stabilizing oil price and possibility of more aggressive stimulus programs from central bankers in the Eurozone, Dow surged 323 points (+1.8%) on Thursday. Following 2 days of strong performance, it appeared to me that Dow is either forming a a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv),

Or more bullish, it has just completed the sub-wave ii of its wave (xiii). Under this option sub-wave iii is expected to punch through the upper resistance line decisively with more new record highs in the coming weeks.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.89)

KSL moved up strongly today after the 10% interim dividend announcement. It gained 16 sens (+9%) with 3.03 millions shares traded. KSL has fixed the price of new share to be issued pursuant to the 'dividend reinvestment plan' at Rm 1.57.

Today's candlestick appeared to be the mini-wave viii of c of wave (iv). There should be one more down, the mini-wave ix. However, if the upward momentum is too strong and if it can move above Rm 2.00 (top of mini-wave vi) in the next two days, then I will have no choice but to accept today's candlestick as the starting of wave (v) of major wave 3.

Next target for KSL is to break the Rm 3.00 level. Kenanga has a fair value of Rm 3.30 for this stock.

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Who's buying KSL Warrants ?

FBMKLCI (1,716)

KLCI has completed its major wave 4 in December and has started its major wave 5. It is forming its sub-wave ii correction currently.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.70)

KSL remains in the wave c of its wave (iv). Wave (iv) magnitude is about there. If it continues to go lower, I may need to revise my wave count for KSL.

On Monday, 63 millions KLS Warrants changed hand in an off-market deal. The seller has to be the owner of KSL. Who is the buyer ? Click 'Who's buying KSL Warrants' for the report.


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Dow - What degree of correction ?

Dow (17,501)

Hit by a 5% drop in crude oil prices and renewed fear of a potential Greek exit from the eurozone, Dow gave up 331 points (-1.86%) on Monday. Wave c of (xiv) in progress, this is my most optimistic option. If I am expecting an 8% correction for wave (xiv), Dow is expected to go to 16,500 level, another 1,000 points to go.

I am assuming wave (xiii) is not the end of major wave (5) or end of mega wave 1.

If my assumption is wrong and if the current pullback is the 15% major wave (6) correction, Dow may be heading towards 15,000 level.

Thing can be worst if this is the mega wave 2 correction.

If Dow can last until 2016

Dow (17,832)

If the assets bubble is as what Roubini has said, "It won't pop until 2016", Dow is expected to move in an up-trend channel until 2016. From its long-term chart, Dow is in its super wave VII.

So far Dow has completed wave (xii) of major wave (5) of mega wave 1 of its super wave VII. 

Please bear in mind that the mega wave 2 can drop all the way to the starting point of mega wave 1 at 6,547 level for a 100% retracement.

The run-up from wave (xii) to 17,958 until 5th December has gained 11.4%, based on magnitude achieved, it is possible that wave (xiii) has been completed. If that is true, then Dow is currently forming its wave b of wave (xiv). 

It is good to remember that there are a few other possible wave counts for Dow.

I was looking at Dow's monthly chart last night and I found that it is possible to have a slightly different wave count as shown below.

For this wave count, Dow is currently forming the wave (v) of its major wave (5). If wave (v)'s magnitude is the same as that for wave (i) of 24.6% gain, Dow may reach 19,150 level.

FBMKLCI (1,752)

If Dow can last until 2016, it is highly possible that KLCI has started its major wave 5.

KLCI has completed its major wave 4 on 16th December at 1,673 level.

Its current pullback can be the mini wave 2 of its sub-wave i of  wave (i) of major wave 5.

Karambunai Corp Bhd (Rm 0.06)

A leading tourism player in Sabah. Jewel in the crown is the 1,500 acres of land in Karambunai Peninsular which is in the process of being developed into a world-class eco-nature integrated resort.

Over in Peninsular Malaysia, the Group owns 1,363 acres of land in Dengkil, Selangor, which is being developed into a resort style mixed development known as Bukit Unggul Eco-Media City.

In October 2013, the Group has completed a corporate exercise to put the Group into better financial footing. Under this exercise Kbunai issued 2.9 billions share valued as 11 sens a share to Dr. Chen Lip Keong, a director and a major shareholder, as settlement to debts amounting to Rm 322 millions. Similarly 339 millions shares valued at 11 sens were issued to FACB to settle Rm 37.7 millions of debt.

After the exercise, Dr. Chen Lip Keong has a direct interest in 4.29 billions (74.27%) shares and an indirect interest in 339 millions (5.87%) shares via FACB.

Kbunai closed the week at 6 sens, which is 45% lower than the 11 sens issued to Dr. Chen and FACB in October 2013.

At this moment, Kbunai is forming the wave v of its wave C of mega wave (2). If it can end its mega wave (2) at 5.5 sens, it is forming a 'double-bottom' reversal pattern with very strong OBV.

From its 2-year chart, Kbunai is at mini-wave 5 of wave v.

For its quarter ending September 2014, its earning is in the red at -0.11 sens per share. Net assets per share is 15.27 sens.

From its latest annual report, the 1,500 acres of land at Karambunai Peninsular is valued at Rm18.70 psf. And its 1,363 acres of land at Dengkil Selangor is valued at only Rm 2.76 psf.

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