Dow - Refused to end its sub-wave iii

Dow (17,687)

Dow continues to set its 6th record high in November. It closed at 17,687 on Tuesday to start its mini wave 7 of its sub-wave iii of wave (xiii).

FBMKLCI (1,818)

KLCI gained 12 points to closed at 1,818 on Tuesday. Is this the first candlestick of wave 3 of d ? We will know on Wednesday.

If Dow can repeat its last few months performance until mid 2015, KLCI will have time to complete its major wave 4 and 5.

Jasa Kita Bhd (Rm 0.235)

My friend has asked me to have a look at Jasa Kita, a company with about 450 million paid-up shares, that manufacture and sell electric motors, power tools and other Engineering and Industrial equipments. The company also provides logostics related services.

Two weeks ago it announced its 2nd quarter earning of only 0.43 sen a share. Its net assets per share is 20 sens. Annualised PE is about 14.

Its started to move side-way since 1998 to form its major A-B-C-D-E mega wave 2.

At a glance, it appeared that it has just completed its wave D and is about to move all the way to 10 sens to form the wave E of its mega wave (2).

 

However, a closer study shows that there is another possibility that it may not have completed its wave D yet and is currently forming the wave (v) of its wave 3 of D that has a possible high of 45 sens if D can reach the upper channel line.

From the 6-Month chart, it has completed its mini wave 1, 2, 3 and 4. It formed a green engulfing candlestick on Tuesday, is this the starting of its mini wave 5 of its sub-wave i ? My guess is as good as yours.

I wish my friend good luck if he wanted to trade in this stock. As usual my interpretation can be wrong, so he has to trade at his own risk.


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Dow - Is wave (xiii) about to finish ?

Dow closed Monday trading with a marginal gain of 13 points. It formed another 'doji', sub-wave iv is about to start. The main concern now is - Dow is about to end its wave (xiii).

Based on the magnitude of its wave (ix) of 12% gain and its wave (xi) of 11.4% gain, and assuming wave (xiii) can gain an average of 11.7%, Dow has only another 2.3% to go, or another 370 points to go to complete its wave (xiii).

If wave (xiii) is going to be the end of its major wave (5) or mega wave 1. I think Dow is approaching a possible danger zone. In my previous posts I thought the wave (xiii) could last until early 2015 but it appeared that it may not.

Unless major wave (5) has more than 13 waves, then the next correction can be wave (xiv) after the completion of wave (xiii).

But if major wave (5) has only 13 waves then the next correction at best is the major wave (6) pullback and worst to come is the mega wave 2 scenario.

Be careful, be very very careful. And again this is only my interpretation of Dow and I can be wrong too.


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Weekly Update

Dow (17,634)

Dow closed the week at 17,634. It appeared to me that it has completed its mini wave 5. If sub-wave iii has only 5 waves, it is likely that Dow will form the sub-wave iv of its wave (xiii) next week.

Be very careful when wave (xiii) is completed because it could be the end of its major wave (5) or mega wave 1.

 

FBMKLCI (1,813)

KLCI continues to form its wave 2 of its wave d. Does it need to wait for Dow to complete its sub-wave iv before it can start its wave 3 of d ?

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.48)

BJ Corp is about to complete its mini wave 2. The worst that can happen is a 100% retracement to 47 sens.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.50)

Same as BJ Corp, KSL is on its way to complete its mini wave 2.

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A Historic Link

Come next Monday, 17th November 2014, for the first time, Chinese retail investors from Mainland China can buy foreign shares directly when the long-awaited trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai starts to operate.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing chief executive 

Charles Li (left) and chairman Chow Chung-Kong

This 'Link' will provide a channel for Chinese individual investors to start moving some of their 50 trillions Chinese Renminbi of private wealth into oversea stocks. It also allows foreigners to buy more China stocks.

Click 'Hong Kong - Shanghai Trading Link' for details.

This is going to have a great impact on equity and currency markets.


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Dow - wave (xiii)

Dow (17,612)

Dow closed its Wednesday session at 17,612. For two days Dow ended on a mixed note forming 2 'doji' candlesticks. If Dow is not forming its minor wave vi then it is forming its mini wave 4 of sub-wave i of its wave (xiii).

Dow is at the tail end of its sub-wave i, it may take another week to finish it. The upper channel line may provide solid support to sub-wave ii. Sub-wave iii of wave (xiii) will set more new record highs in December.

FBMKLCI (1,816)

KLCI dropped another 8 points to continue with its wave c of 2. It may take another two to three days to complete its wave 2.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.54)

KSL moved to a high of Rm 4.67 before sellers pushed it down to close at Rm 4.54. If it can continue to climb higher with good volume, it may be able to run until end of November to form its mini-wave (iii) of sub-wave v.

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Berjaya Corporation Bhd

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.485)

BJ Corp formed its first green candlestick after a week of correction. Is that the signal that mini wave 2 has ended ?

BJ Corp has been in the down trend since April 2010 forming the wave C of its mega wave (2). It may be too early to say that its mega wave (2) has ended, more confirmation is needed, but the bullish 5 little waves formation is a positive sign.

Bonescythe has a long writeup on this stock in September. Click 'BJ Corp - The Rise of The Empire' for the article.

If my reading is right and if the 47-sen level is indeed the base, it is possible that the mega wave (3) of BJ Corp has started. I am keeping my fingers crossed.


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Weekend update.

Dow (17,573)

Dow closed the week with another new record high. From the candlesticks it is quite obvious that the run is losing momentum. Mini wave 3 may end anytime. Mini wave 4 may take one or two days to completed. Mini wave 5 of sub-wave i can be quite unpredictable.

The upper trend-line is likely to provide a strong support for the sub-wave ii correction.

FBMKLCI (1,824)

KLCI continues to form the wave 2 of its wave d. It appeared to me that the magnitude of wave 2 is about there. Hopefully wave 3 of d can start next week.

I expect wave d to run until first quarter of 2015.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.56)

KSL continues to form the mini wave (ii) of its wave (v). I hope I can see the starting of mini wave (iii) next week. Wave (v) is likely to be completed by end of November or early December after the announcement of its 3rd Quarter earning and the approval of the one for one bonus issue plus the proposed Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

From a longer term perspective, if wave (v) is the end of major wave 3, it will be followed by major wave 4 correction before the final major wave 5 surge to complete its mega wave (3). The major wave 4 correction, if inline with KLCI's wave e correction, it may last about 3 to 4 months.

Based on my projection, mega wave (3) may reach Rm 8.00 ( or Rm 4.00 after adjusting for the 1 for 1 bonus)  before end of 2015 provided the Dow can hold. 

Please remember, I can be wrong. 


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